Gulfstream Park Horse Racing Picks, Plays and analysis for the Sugar Swirl Stakes, Harlan’s Holiday Stakes and the Ft. Lauderdale Stakes. Peter tells the crew some funny stories, how NFL quarterback Cam Newton can see the races once again. Peter also shares his “secrets” to handicapping steeplechase races, good luck.
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Gulfstream Park Race 8 – $100,000 SUGAR SWIRL STAKES – GRADE III
#5 – Center Aisle has won two races in a row, has won her only start at Gulfstream Park and likes the distance. She has a good 4F workout on 10Dec 4f ft :48.4 B 11/50.
#3 – Frank’s Rockette has finished in the money eight out of the last ten races, winning four of the races. She has a good 4F workout on 13Dec :49.3 B 10/37, likes the track winning her only start there and likes the distance finishing in the money 81% of the time, winning 45% of the races.
#4 – Loriloupies ran third after a two-month break but had an excuse as she was boxed in coming into the stretch. The trainer wins 31%of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race.
#1 – Quinoa Tifah won her first race at Gulfstream Park after being off since last March. She is a horse for the course winning three out of four starts there and has a high % winning jockey Paco Lopez in the irons.
Gulfstream Park Race 9 – $150,000 HARLAN’S HOLIDAY STAKES – GRADE III
#6– Fearless finished second in his last race at Gulfstream Park losing his only start there after winning the three other starts. He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters. The Trainer Todd Pletcher/Jockey Luis Saez combo in last 14 days has this record (4 3-0-0).
#1– Mighty Heart comes in from Woodbine after finishing in the money six out of the last seven races, winning three of the races. The rail post is winning at 25% clip and the trainer wins 22%of the races when bringing a winner back who won their last race.
#2 Blue Steel has won two races in a row the last one at Gulfstream Park at today’s distance. Another plus is he has jockey Paco Lopez in the irons.
#5– South Bend won his last race at Churchill Downs receiving a 100-speed rating his third improvement in a row. He has one of the highest last race speed ratings (tie), a good trainer William Mott and high % winning jockey Tyler Gaffialione.
Gulfstream Park Race 10 – $200,000 FT. LAUDERDALE STAKES – GRADE II
#1 – Doswell is a turf expert finishing 100% of the time in the money during his ten turf races. The rail post is winning at 35% clip and the trainer wins 50%of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race. His best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he has a bullet workout on 14Dec 4f fm :45.3 B 1/28.
#2 – L’Imperator has finished 77% of the time in the money during his career winning 56% of the races. Chad Brown wins 27% of the races when shipping a horse into a new track to race.
#8 – Analyze It won his last race at 1 mile at the Belmont racetrack. He has finished in the money three out of four races this year, winning one of the races.
#12 – Space Traveller has been running in grade 1 races doing well and now is going in a grade 2 race, switches to high % jockey Tyler Gaffalione. He has the highest last race speed rating and a bullet workout on 10Dec 5f gd :58 B 1/22.
$1.50 Pick 3-Cost: $96.00
Race 6: 1, 3, 4, 5
Race 7: 1, 2, 5, 6
Race 8: 1, 2, 8, 12
Swiss Army Shawn’s Selections
Gulfstream Park Race 8 – $100,000 SUGAR SWIRL STAKES – GRADE III
PACE PROJECTION: Half of the field of 8 could try for the lead here. Ultimately, I think it comes down to one of two horses for the early lead #5 Center Isle and #8 Sosua.
#5 Center Isle – Might get the early lead and if he does may wire the field again like he did his last two starts. 2 for 2 so far this year as a 4-year-old. Trainer hits @ 17% in Graded Stakes.
#3 Frank’s Rockette – Has been in some really tough races and has performed well. There is no Bell’s the One, Sconsin, or Whitmore in this race. Has won 5 of 11 races at this distance. Has won at Gulfstream in her only race there.
#2 Music City Star – Looks to be a better horse when off the turf. The 3 races she wasn’t on the turf she has 2 wins. She might have to try a little bit of a different running style here and just sit behind a couple leaders here for her best chance.
Plays: $20 win #5 $1 Exbox 2,3,5 $1 Tribox 2,3,5
Gulfstream Park Race 9 – $150,000 HARLAN’S HOLIDAY STAKES – GRADE III
PACE PROJECTION: The speed will come from the inside posts in this small 6 horse field. #1 Might Heart and #2 Blue Steel should be the ones dictating the pace.
#6 Fearless – The outside post is perfect for this stalker in a race where the 2 speed horses come from the inside. If they go at it this is the horse that should be able to take advantage of it. Has been in the exacta in 7 of 10 lifetime races including all 4 of his races at Gulfstream winning 3 of them. All 3 at the distance as well winning 2 of the 3.
#1 Mighty Heart – Battle tested horse who gets the rail has speed and gets HOF jockey John Velazquez. Likes the distance winning 3 of 7 races with 2 seconds.
#4 Eye of a Jedi – Has a good late kick but has enough speed to not be to far out of it in the beginning. 5 of his 6 wins came at Gulfstream. Gets Javier Castellano back aboard. The only time he was aboard resulted in a victory.
Plays: $24 win 6 $1 exb 1,4,6 $1 Tribox 1,4,6
Gulfstream Park Race 10 – $200,000 FT. LAUDERDALE STAKES – GRADE II
PACE PROJECTION: Not too much speed in here. There are a few and the most likely leader would be #8 Analyze It. Right outside of him #9 King Guillermo will have good pace and try for the lead as well.
#8 Analyze It – Could be the controlling speed but is not a need the lead type of horse. There isn’t much speed in here so that could be a huge advantage. Has been off for over 2 months but has been working out well. Has finished in the exacta in 9 of 14 career races winning 5 of them.
#12 Space Traveler – Has been racing decent in Grade 1’s now gets in a Grade 2 with a big time jockey upgrade getting Tyler Gaffalione. Another that has been off for over a couple months. Workouts since last race have been really good.
#1 Doswell – Always around at the end finishing in the trifecta in 10 of 11 career races. The one he didn’t finish in the trifecta he finished 4th and that was his only race not on the turf. Has enough speed to make the rail work for him.
Plays: $20 Win 8 $1 exbox 1,8,12 $1 Tribox 1,8,12
22 to 1 Tom’s Tips
Gulfstream Park Race 8 – $100,000 SUGAR SWIRL STAKES – GRADE III
6 – Center Aisle
Winner of last 2 races at 2 different tracks and distances and different trainer
Speed in last 2 races
A winner at Gulfstream
Placed in grade 2 – 3 races behind Frank’s Rockette but those races were running behind the pace
Average works
8 – Sousa
Speed horse running in distance races or on the turf, why?
Wins first 2 races at 6F and wins 1 races at 1 mile vs lesser horse, then distance races and a 7F turf race
Back to a distance that suits
Works at Tamps are good coming into this race
3 – Frank’s Rockette
Drops
Been running against better horses and doing ok
Won over the track at distance
Works are average but normal for this horse
Win? Maybe but placing yes
Gulfstream Park Race 9 – $150,000 HARLAN’S HOLIDAY STAKES – GRADE III
1 – Mighty Heart
Winner last out at WO at same distance but on AW and this was a grade 2
He has 2 wins from 5 starts on dirt – Churchill and Fort Erie
Inside post is an advantage for this horse because he will be put into the race at the beginning, so on the lead makes sense
This level of race suits this horse perfectly
Jockey certainly knows how to get the job done
6 – Fearless
Good races in last 4 races with 1 win 2 seconds 1 third at 4 different tracks
Excellent record at Gulfstream – 4 starts 3 wins 1 second
Average works coming into this race
Excellent speed numbers and it doesn’t matter with Lasix on board or not
Jockey rode the horse for maiden win
The favorite?
4 – Eye of a Jedi
Last 3 races at 1 mile (1 turn) at Gulfstream but no wins since layoff
Won going 2 turns in the past at this distance and 1 1/8 mile
Good work 1:00.1B
Won graded stakes races at this level
Advantage is track comes up sloppy
Gulfstream Park Race 10 – $200,000 FT. LAUDERDALE STAKES – GRADE II
12 – Space Traveller
Faced grade 1 horses in past three races with mixed results after coming from Europe
Will be moving late so post 12 not an issue with run up to first turn?
Drops but it’s been a while since placing in group races
2 turns help or hurt?
Excellent work on turf of :58B
8 – Analyze It
Racing OC races (100K) with 1 win 1 second 1 third
In the past, has run longer races with placing results
Layoff appears to be normal for this horse and has mixed results
Good spot to get a graded stakes win?
6 – Renaissance Frolic
Toss last at KD, showed pace and then backed up, didn’t like the uphill run at the end
Prior races were good with wins but at various levels, 50K claimer to grade 2 to handicap and overnight stakes races
Won at the distance and has 4 wins at GP
Layoffs are the normal pattern for this horse, lots of spacing between races
Works are average but appear to be normal
Rich’s Ranks
Gulfstream Park Race 8 – $100,000 SUGAR SWIRL STAKES – GRADE III
5 – Center Aisle
1 – Quinoa Tifah
3 – Frank’s Rockette
7 – Bronx Beauty
Gulfstream Park Race 9 – $150,000 HARLAN’S HOLIDAY STAKES – GRADE III
6 – Fearless
5 – South Bend
4 – Eye of a Jedi
1 – Mighty Heart
Gulfstream Park Race 10 – $200,000 FT. LAUDERDALE STAKES – GRADE II
3 – Breaking the Rules
2 – L’Imperator
12 – Space Traveller
8 – Analyze It
