Paula Bacon has done it all at the track, from the backside to a jockey, trainer and now a jockey’s agent. She shares her experiences and well as put her handicapping skills to work for Saturday’s late pick 4 at Tampa Bay Downs.
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Tampa Bay Downs Picks and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 7
3 – Julie’s Grace has finished in the money in six out of her last seven races, winning two. She can lead or come from off the pace and if she can keep from ducking in or out should do well in this race.
2 – Sparkling Plenty won a race two races back at Tampa Bay Downs and then had trouble in the next race losing the jockey. Sparkling Plenty is one for one at today’s distance and high % winning Jockey Samy Camacho returns to ride again.
5 – First Gold has early speed but seems to be able to close if needed and she has a good workout on 09Mar Tam 4f ft :49.3 B 4/13.
6 – Dolcisima tried Gulfstream Park without success and now returns to Tampa Bay Downs where he has finished in the money two out of two times, winning one of the races. Today’s distance is one she has no problem with.
Race 8
9 – Seize the Hay comes in from Gulfstream Park after finishing 2nd in his last race only beaten a neck on the dirt and returns to the turf for today’s contest. I think he is a better turf horse than dirt, switches to a high % winning jockey and the trainer wins 23% of the races with a horse he has claimed in the horses first race. He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
5 – Call Bros has finished 2nd two races in a row the last race was on dirt returns to the turf which I think firs him better. He received the highest last race speed rating. And has a jockey who has won five races out of eleven stars.
1 – Shaldag ran 5th in his last race at a mile and 40yds and now shortens to a mile which is a distance he has won at. He drops in class today Jockey in the last 7 days (15 4-1-2).
10 – Double Demon another horse that tried has Gulfstream Park without success and now returns to Tampa Bay Downs where he broke his maiden at today’s race conditions, drops in class today and the connections adds Lasix for this contest.
Race 9
2 – King Force has finished in the money in his last three races, winning the last race at Tampa Bay Downs. He has a high % winning Jockey and a good trainer who has won two out of his last four races and a good 5F workout on 01Oct’21 GP 4f wf :47.3 B 2/27.
10 – Hard Ten comes to Tampa Bay Downs to try the competition. He has the highest last race speed rating and drops in class today.
5 – Stayin Or Strayin won the first race that he tried on the dirt and then ran 4th after having a bit of trouble. He is trying a third race on the dirt, has a high % winning trainer and Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (15 4-1-2).
4 – Frankie Z Finished 3rd vs similar in last race at Tampa Bay Downs.
Race 10
9 – Double Warrior finished 2nd in his debut race and then 4th in his second race and earned the highest last race speed rating. He tries the turf, and his breeding suggests he will like the grass. He has several good works in a row which indicates he fit and should run well.
8 – Psychedelic Shack is a first-time starter that breeding suits today’s sprint distance. He has a good jockey, trainer and three bullet workouts in a row to make his debut.
10 – Theregoesmymiracle has finished 3rd in the last three races in a row Tampa Bay Downs. He may finish better at a shorter distance.
4 – Saratogabattlecry ran 4th in his debut race but had trouble in the stretch being bumped which affected his finish. He may improve while trying turf.
$.50 Pick 4 – Cost $96.00
Race 7: 2, 3, 5
Race 8: 1, 5, 9, 10
Race 9: 2, 4, 5, 10
Race 10: 4, 8, 9, 10
Swiss Army Shawn’s Selections
RACE 7
PACE PROJECTION: There’s some speed in here so a few may try for the early lead but it looks like the #7 Bahama Pearl should get it. Especially since she is stretching out from 5 1/2 and 6 furlong races now going to try 7 furlongs. If she doesn’t end up with the early lead it would be #3 Julie’s Grace.
#4 Ma Coco– This horse just broke its maiden on her 10th try but let’s look at some of the changes and she fits here again to go back-to-back. The first is the last race was the furthest distance she went on the dirt 6 ½ furlongs now here she will get another half furlong. The jockey she has here Maggie Rowland was the best jockey she has ever had on a dirt race. There should be some pace and cheap speed in here for her to run them down late.
#2 Sparkling Plenty– Last and first time this horse went 7 furlongs which was last month she won easily with same jockey. Last race she was 3-1 and one of the favorites but clipped heels and lost the rider. You can throw that race out. Will be on the favorites and is a must use in the pk 4.
#3 Julie’s Grace– Has speed and has been competitive and the distance and track. Has a lot more in the money races then other horses in this field so you know this horse will be around at the end.
RACE 8
PACE PROJECTION: There is some major cheap speed in here that will just sent this race up for the horses coming at the end. Expect the #1 Shaldag, #4 Pirate Parade, and #6 Big Polo. I don’t expect any of those 3 to be your winner here.
#5 Call Bros– Will be coming late has finished 2nd in 3 of 4 races. Might be able to get there this time against this group and all the early speed. The switch to Jockey Hector Diaz could be huge and put this horse in the winner circle. Has finished in the money in 9 of his 16 starts on the turf.
#9 Seize the Hay– This is a horse that needs a lot of pace to win and he should get plenty here. Ran great last race only to lose by a neck. That was on synthetic now gets to be on turf a surface he prefers. He has finished in the exacta in 6 of 14 career races on turf including 3 of 5 at the distance.
#10 Double Demon– The least experienced horse in the field which might be a good thing for a field like this. Has won 1 of 3 races and that one win was on the turf. After breaking the maiden on turf tried the turf again but jumped way up in class and didn’t belong. Now comes back after a 10 month layoff and goes into claiming. Gets Lasix for the first time and the workouts are just ok. Another that should be flying late.
RACE 9
PACE PROJECTION: Looks like #8 Herecomesthehammer could find the front end early and be left alone. If so look out.
#8 Herecomesthehammer– Could potentially be the lone speed. Gets the bug rider Maggie Rowland who has started off great winning at 13 % to start her career. The horse also gets a huge weight advantage against the rest of the field besides the #7 horse. Comes back to the dirt after trying turf for the first time.
#2 King Force– Has been in really good form and has some speed as well so couldn’t be sitting right off the early leader. Likes Tampa’s dirt finishing in the trifecta in all 3 starts. Jockey Daniel Centeno got on this horse last race to break the maiden and is back again.
#3 Ma Mazza– First race after a claim and second race after a 8 month layoff. The trainer hits at 27% after a claim. He also hits at 22 % going from sprint to route. Enough to like in this weak field.
#10 Hard Ten– Has some of the highest Beyer numbers in the field. Will only be trying the turf for the 2nd time. The first time was up against tougher in August of last year where he also got bumped around in that race. Workouts are good coming back after a 3-month layoff.
RACE 10
PACE PROJECTION: A hard race to project pace with maidens that haven’t made many starts or none at all. It does look like there is some speed in here however.
#8 Psychedelic Shack– Debuts for a high percentage trainer and jockey against a really soft field. Workouts are really good and breeding suggests the horse should be quick. If he gets a good start look out.
#9 Double Warrior– Has had 2 starts on the dirt and showed speed in one of them. Drops in class and tries turf. Shortens up a ½ furlong and that might make his speed that much more dangerous. Has one of the better gate and speed jockeys on Jose Ferrer.
PICK 4 TICKET Total Cost $36 $.50 – 2,3,4 / 5,9,10 / 8,2,3,10 / 8,9
2t to Tom’s Tips
Race 7
6 – Dolcisima
Won maiden at Tampa (Dead Heat) and placed in maiden race
Toss the turf race at Tampa
Won at distance
Drops in class after 2 disappointing efforts at GP
Appears to be making moves on the inside in last races and empty
Class relief and better trip for winner effort
My single
2 – Sparkling Plenty
Toss last, clipped heels and Samy got tossed off
Winner at distance start before laying close to the pace
Tried too many times on the turf with only bad results – 7 starts
Trainer has 4 wins at the meet but very low over percentages
Win? Nope, placing makes more sense to me
3 – Julie’s Grace
Moved for in last race but didn’t finish
Race before, she was pushed and dueled but didn’t get the job done
Consist horse with 8 placing from 13 starts
Form is good enough but just good enough, again, for a placing
Race 8
9 – Seize the Hay
Last race, issues at the start and still ran a good 2nd missing by a neck
Race before, appeared to be up against it in $35k off the turf race
14 of 17 starts are on the turf with a 2 wins 4 seconds
Comes from the clouds, so don’t except to see this horse anywhere near the early pace
Move back to the turf and Samy up will improve his changes moving from GP
1 – Shaldag
Will some class relief help this front runner here?
Coming from TAM allowance races, at big odds and trying to do it on the frontend hasn’t work at this level
MTH races were in maiden claimers and good runs
Will help setup my top choice with the closing kick
There is other speed in this race but can hang on for a share
3 – Yes Sir Robert
2 4th in last 2 races at this distance
Both tries were overall favorable with some troubles
Should sit behind the early pace
Best overall speed numbers
If he gets the trip, he will hang on for a piece. He just needs to finish
Race 9
5 – Stayin Or Strayin
Last 2 efforts were good with a win and a 4th
Last race, he was too wide on the first turn and appears to have no chance
Better post draw helps
The move away from the turf was the right move and the drop in class to win maiden
He may have needed a race at the level and with a stalking trip he should be in a position to win
High percentage trainer and appears to be place correctly for the win
7 – Give It a Go
What’s in a name, well the last 2 races this horse hasn’t given the go at all
Some early pace but this nothing
Won a moved turf maiden claiming by 15L but
I think 2 turns will benefit this horse and getting out of the gate and on the lead should help.
Let’s see in Give It a Go gets stay in the race for a placing
3 – Mr Mazza
Need last start, 7F race hadn’t race since July and showed some early interest and then was done
He won a MC at GP going 1 1/16th and then shipped to MTH, both times off traces and it’s wasn’t his day(s)
High percentage trainer with a positive ROI but not great with 2nd starts but in the money finishes, he’s done well percentage wise
Race 10
8 – Psychedelic Shack
First time starter for Christophe Clement using Samy for the ride
Last work was on the turf at 5F and useful prep for this race – Payson work
Sire was a good dirt horse, so why on turf?
Dam side is the turf, she was unraced but her sire strong for turf performers
They took their time with the horse and was allowed to mature, paid $80k
This is a Myracehorse owned so the betting will be strong and if they win, the winner circle will be packed
6 – Edmund Fitzgerald
Toss first start, was wide and green, the layoff
Works are useful including at gate work at training track so don’t know what a good work? Comparison with others working and type of dirt track
Sire has produced for good of turf horse
The dam side is more important for me here, she was a grade 3 stakes winner at Saratoga and has produced one other runner to win on the turf
Lower percentage trainer is a concern and this is a 5 year old but let’s see if we can get a price
2 – Commander Biz
Shows speed in his races and be little left except for his first race at TAM, running 4th
Moving from MC but if he can flash that speed from the inside the change in distance maybe just what this horse needs to get a better result
Trainer is have a rough time with no wins in 50 starters but her in the money percentage from MC to MSW is 42%
Sire has produced ok turf runners, some really good
Dam has produced 1 turf winner and she was a turf winner. Her other foal also was a winner (dirt)
Pick 4
Race7 – 6
Race8 – 9-1-3
Race9 – 5-7-3
Race10 – 8-6-2
Rich’s Ranks
Race 7
3 – Julie’s Grace
2 – Sparking Plenty
4 – Ma Coco
Race 8
1 – Shaldag
5 – Call Bros
7 – Montauk Summer
10 – Double Demon
Race 9
2 – King Force
7 – Give It A Go
10 – Hard Ten
5 – Stayin Or Strayin
Race 10
7 – Run Smitty Run
8 – Psychedelic Shack
9 – Double Warrior
Pick 4 – 2,3,4/1,5,7,10/2,5,7,10/7,8,9
