It’s been a long road from Idaho to the Louisiana “swamp” for jockey Aubrie “Pink” Green. She stops by the show to talk about her experiences, racing at home on the Louisiana Circuit and make some picks for the Louisiana Stakes and Kentucky Derby Prep LeCompte Stakes.
Make sure you follow Aubrie on Twitter: https://twitter.com/jockeygreen
Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks, Commentary and Suggested Wagers
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Fair Grounds Race 1
6 – Pineapple Alley finished 3rd vs similar in last race. She has a high % winning trainer and has some good workouts.
7 – Candy’s Pride ran 2nd vs similar in last race at The Fairgrounds – Has the highest last race speed rating – The trainer wins 24% of the time in Sprint races -Her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – Jockey in last 7 days has this record (8 2-1-1)
10 – Conservative Values comes in from PARX Racing after finishing two times in a row to try The Fairgrounds and switches to a high % winning trainer – Lasix added Trainer/Jockey combo in last 14 days has this record (6 3-1-0)
11 – Honeysuckledelight ran 3rd in his last race at The Fairgrounds High % trainer ñ High % Jockey ñ Hot Jockey in last 7 days has this record (21 6-5-3).
Fair Grounds Race 13 – $150,000 LOUISIANA STAKES – GRADE III
2 – Mandaloun won last race (Haskell-G1 -thru disqualification) receiving the highest last race speed rating, he has high % winning trainer Brad Cox and high % winning Jockey Florent Geroux – The trainer wins 24% of the time when he uses 1st time Lasix in his entry.
6 – Warrant has finished in the money in all seven of his career races winning three of them. He is trained by High % winning trainer Brad Cox and has a good 5F workout (Jan-09).
3 – Midnight Bourbon has finished in the money in the last three G1 races. Lasix & Blinkers are added, and the trainer wins 24% with 1st time Lasix – Should improve at the shorter distance – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters
1 – Chess Chief won his last race at The Fairgrounds and has finished in the money eight out of ten races there, winning five of the races. He likes the distant winning 25% of his races at today’s distance and his Jockey in last 7 days has this record (21 6-5-3) – Sharp 4F workout (Jan-08)
Race 14 – $200,000 LECOMTE STAKES – GRADE III
6 – Cyberknife won last race at The Fairgrounds. He has a High % winning trainer ñ High % winning Jockey – The trainer wins 40% when putting Blinkers back on a horse – Sharp 4F workout (Jan-08)
4 – Trafalgar has two races in a row and is going for a hat trick. He is one for one at The Fairgrounds and today’s distance.
2 – Unified Report is perfect in his career in sprints and stretches out in today’s races but I think his running style will allow him to perform well in today’s contest – Sharp 5F workout (Jan-14).
1 – Surfer Dude has finished five out of six races in the money during his career winning one of the races. He has a Jockey in last 7 days has this record (21 6-5-3).
1st Race
$6.00 win #6 – $1 exacta 6, 7, 10, 11 – $1 Trifecta 6, 7, 10, 11 – $1 Superfecta 6, 7, 10, 11 – Total Bet $32.40
13th Race
$6.00 win #2 – $1 exacta 1, 2, 3, 6 – $1 Trifecta 1, 2, 3, 6 – $1 Superfecta 1, 2, 3, 6 – Total Bet $32.40
14th Race
$6.00 win #1 – $1 exacta 1, 2, 4, 6 – $1 Trifecta 1, 2, 4, 6 – $1 Superfecta 1, 2, 4, 6 – Total Bet $32.40
Swiss Army Shawn’s Selections
Fair Grounds Race 1
PACE PROJECTION: Very hard to project pace with horses that have very few starts. With the ones that have made starts the #7 Candy’s Pride sticks out as the potential pace setter here.
#7 Candy’s Pride– Really improved in 2nd start as she got the lead right way and missed out by a nose. Could potentially be the only speed in here tough to tell. Gets another ½ furlong of distance which should be ok and work for her. Had a nice work out a week ago.
#11 Honeysuckledelight– Has been bet in both of her first two starts. Went off at about 3-1 in both starts. Looks like she might want a little bit more distance. I like how they started her at 5 furlongs went to 5 and a half now trying 6 furlongs. This horse should be coming strong late. Also 2nd straight race Reylu Gutierrez will be aboard her.
#6 Pineapple Alley– Finished 3rd in both of her starts but broke slow each time. If she can getter a better start plus the fact, she is getting another ½ furlong this horse could be right there.
Plays: $24 win #7 $2 Exbox 6,7,11 $1 Tribox 6,7,11
Fair Grounds Race 13 – $150,000 LOUISIANA STAKES – GRADE III
PACE PROJECTION: For a small field of 7 there is potentially a lot of speed with at least 3 horses that could go for it. #3 Midnight Bourbon, #4 Sprawl, and #5 Pirate’s Punch. You have some others who want to be close then #1 Chess Chief will be closing from way back.
#2 Mandaloun– I like that he’ll be close but off the potential fast pace. Getting Lasix for the first time an angle Brad Cox hits at 35%. Last 2 races were at Monmouth without the whip we always see horses improve when they get the whip again. Don’t like the layoff of 6 months but the workouts suggest this horse is sharp and ready to go.
#4 Sprawl– Will contest for the early lead and loves this distance winning 4 of 5. A three-month layoff but workouts have been really good.
#3 Midnight Bourbon– Is one or maybe the classiest horse in the field I have 2 problems and that’s why I couldn’t pick him. One there is a couple other speed horses in here if the plan is to get him out front. The other problem too many changes getting Lasix and blinkers for the first time.
Plays: $20 ex 2/4 $2 Tri 2/3,4/3,4
Race 14 – $200,000 LECOMTE STAKES – GRADE III
PACE PROJECTION: Quite a few in here with early pace. Those runners are #1 Surfer Dude, #3 Pappacap,#5 Epicenter,#Cyberknife, and #7 Blue Kentucky all can show early speed.
#6 Cyberknife– Has speed but can sit off. Only got credited with one win but actually crossed the wire first twice. Only race he lost was by a half a length and finished 2nd. Getting blinkers back on an angle Brad Cox hits at 40 %. Ran this distance last race won and seemed to like the distance.
#5 Epicenter-Has won 2 in a row impressively and the last race came at this distance. Joel Rosario broke on board after breaking this horse’s maiden 2 starts back.
#3 Pappacap– Battle tested for sure. Off for 2 and a half months but has been working out really well. Never raced at Fairgrounds. Can’t back him at a short price.
Plays: $20 Win #6 $2 ex 5,6/3,5,6 $1 Tribox 3,5,6
22 to 1 Tom’s Tips
Fair Grounds Race 1
9 – Graceleadsushome
First time starter with works at Gulfstream and then Fairgrounds
Works are good and one gate work at Fairgrounds
Jockey getting a 5lb allowance and horse should show speed?
Sire has produced many good horses, 125 winners last year and was pensioned by WindStar farms last year.
Dam was a winner and has produced 2 starters both winners
Highest price paid in this race $65k at OBS
Negative: Louie Roussel doesn’t have a great record with 1st time starters
8 – Drewsilla
First start, she was wide most of the race but got interest late to run 4th at odds of 51-1
Why not here to improve
Dam was a stake placed in her career, 5 starters 3 winners 1 stakes winner
Sire raced 28 times and won 15 races with earnings of $900k but this is his first crop to race and there are only 3 starters (this is the best one so far)
7 – Candy’s Pride
Should be the favorite off last race, lead and got caught at the end to lose by a nose with some bumping along the way in.
Her first race was not much and that’s why she went off at 26-1 in her second start
Last work was very good :36.3B
Dam has had 5 runners 4 winners and she was a winner
Sire was produced a few stakes winners plus allowance/claiming types
Fair Grounds Race 13 – $150,000 LOUISIANA STAKES – GRADE III
2 – Mandaloun
Good works coming into the race after 5 months layoff
First time Lasix
Worst race, at Fairgrounds in Louisiana Derby, wide trip, never fired
Good derby run and still could be the Kentucky Derby winner
Eventful Haskell but was placed first then layoff
6 – Warrant
7 starts all runs in the money with 3 wins
Only a grade 3 winner but looks like one of those horses that matured because he didn’t race as a 2-year-old
Winner at Fairground in maiden race
Time to step up against tough horses and show what he can do
1 – Chess Chief
Looked good win last at Fairground in stakes race beating some to the horses here
Record at Fairgrounds 10 starts 5 wins 1 second 2 thirds, horse for course
Grade 2 winner at Fairgrounds
Work into the race is ok and off last effort and record at Fairground, should run well here.
Invited to the Pegasus at Gulfstream at the end of the month
Race 14 – $200,000 LECOMTE STAKES – GRADE III
3 – Pappacap
Issues in last race but still ran second, of course this was the Breeder’s Cup
Ran the distance twice with 2 seconds
Steadily working up to this race since December, :59B the best of the bunch
Strong dirt speed numbers
Only on bad race, 4th in Del Mar Futurity grade 1
5 – Epicenter
Won last in a bit of a runaway by 6 1/2L and could have won by more in the Gun Runner stakes
Should be on or right behind the leader
Keeps improving with each start and should be the favorite here
If he gets his way, he could be the winner here but also could get cooked on the lead
4 – Trafalgar
OC50k winner last out at today’s distance
Maiden winner from 10 post at CD at 1 mile with issues at the start
Good prep to do something here?
Ok works into the race to get a share
Rich’s Ranks
Fair Grounds Race 1 – Aubrie Green Riding #5 MARDI GRAS GORMLEY – Top Pedigree – some EP
7 – Candy’s Pride
6 – Pineapple Alley
10 – Conservative Values
11 – Honeysuckledelight
Fair Grounds Race 13 – $150,000 LOUISIANA STAKES – GRADE III
2 – Mandaloun
3 – Midnight Bourbon
6 – Warrant
1 – Chess Chief
Race 14 – $200,000 LECOMTE STAKES – GRADE III
3 – Pappacap
5 – Epicenter
6 – Cyberknife
2 – Unified Report
