Eclipse Award winning Jockey Tyler Gaffalione is this week’s The Player’s Edge guest. Tyler tells us how he travels in style, makes a deal with Rich so that Rich will never bet on Tyler again, and shares his thoughts about a trio of Saturday’s biggest stakes races at Churchill Downs, including:
Race 5 – $200,000 REGRET STAKES GRADE III
Race 7 – $200,000 SHAWNEE STAKES
Race 8 – $200,000 ARLINGTON STAKES GRADE III
Churchill Downs Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Churchill Downs Race 5 – $200,000 REGRET STAKES GRADE III
3 – McKulick finished 2nd in her last race after closing at one mile and and a sixteenth and now extends out to one mile and an eighth which will help her to win the race. She likes the turf finishing in the money in 100% of the races she has competed in, and her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters. She is trained by Chad Brown and ridden by jockey Tyler Gaffalione.
1 – Walkathon is perfect on the turf winning her two career starts, her last race on the turf at Churchill Downs. That was her second win in a row, so she is going for a hat trick. She likes to stay mid-pack and close for the win and the distance is something she appears to be able to handle.
2 – Beside Herself is very versatile as she can run on top or come from off the pace to win and just won her last race at one mile and three-sixteenth so a cutback to one mile and an eighth will not be a problem. She has high % winning jockey Luis Saez and trainer Todd Pletcher who is winning at a 22% clip this year.
Churchill Downs Race 7 – $200,000 SHAWNEE STAKES
5 – Pauline’s Pearl has finished in the money in her last seven race, winning three of the contests. She is dropping in class today, has the highest last race speed rating and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters. She loves the distance never finishing out of the money and winning five out of ten starts.
4 – Army Wife has been off since last November but has been steadily working out for her return and has done well in the first race after a break. She has Tyler Gaffalione in the irons who knows how to ride after as he rode her to a third-place finish in the G1-Alabama.
6 – Crazy Beautiful has competed graded stakes in most of her races, drops in class today and trainer Kenneth McPeek wins 23% of Non-Graded Stakes that he enters a horse in.
Churchill Downs Race 8 – $200,000 ARLINGTON STAKES GRADE III
2 – Floriform has won three out of his last four starts and gets a new jockey Tyler Gaffalione in the irons. He has high % trainer William Mott and likes the turf finishing in the money in 100% of his starts winning 60% of the races.
5 – Field Pass finished third in his last race at Laurel after a 2-1/2-month break and probably needed the start. He changes to high % winning jockey Ricardo Santana, Jr. and is trained by Michael Maker, the combination has finished in the money in five out seven races, winning two of the contests in the last 14 days.
1 – Admission Office has not raced for more than a year but shows decent works for his return. The rail post is winning at a 19% clip, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
$.50 Pick 4 – Cost $94.50
Race 5: 1, 2, 3
Race 6: 1/1A, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 13
Race 7: 4, 5, 6
Race 8: 1, 2, 5
Race 5: $5.00 win # 3
22 to 1 Tom’s Tips
Churchill Downs Race 5 – $200,000 REGRET STAKES GRADE III
1 – Walkathon
Undefeated on the turf but not vs stakes company
Show some ability in Feb in a off the turf race two turns in maiden race
Layoff and reappeared at Keeneland with maiden race going 3 wide
Last race, fought the restraints by jockey, sat behind the leaders and won
Looks like 2 turns and turf are her game, and she will stalk the leaders and win
3 – McKulick
Won maiden at Saratoga with good kick to win from off the pace
Placed in 2 graded races (grade 2) at Belmont and Churchill running and ran 3rd and then 2nd again coming off the pace.
Last race was a good speed# and I wonder where Tyler will place this horse early in the race with these runners?
Beautiful bred daughter of Frankel and the dam has already produced 2 stakes winners from 3 foals.
Favorite
4 – Kneeship
After maiden win in first start at Ellis, she only has 1 other win at FG in ungraded stakes at about 1 mile on the turf.
At times, she’s been completive in graded stakes races and others she did nothing.
Change of jockey may improve chances but I only see this one getting in the money
Churchill Downs Race 7 – $200,000 SHAWNEE STAKES
5 – Pauline’s Pearl
Grade 1 winner last out and look dynamite in last 4 races only getting beat by Ce Ce at Oaklawn. Turn 4 years old made the difference?
She is the top filly/mare in the country right now behind Letruska
My only concern is who’s going to be on the lead and this mostly be a slow pace, can she finish as she’s done before?
Favorite and I think she can do it
4 – Army Wife
This is her first start as a 4-year-old coming in with consist works
She did take the lead in her last and lost by 10L
Her game is more coming off the pace and is a grade 2 stakes winner
She’s had layoffs before and was able to place
She maybe a little short on conditioning but has been completive in her races off a layoff.
6 – Crazy Beautiful
She done well overall on all surfaces (all weather, dirt, turf)
Last out she got tired at the end, her works appear to be better this time around to prep for this race
She won on the all-weather at TP in ungraded 200k races, her first time on the all-weather
She has a grade 2 win at Santa Anita as a 2 year old and placed in graded stakes races
Her best effort, can get her an in the money placing vs the balance of the field
Churchill Downs Race 8 – $200,000 ARLINGTON STAKES GRADE III
6 – Field Pass
Need last at Laurel ran on in ungraded stakes race 3rd behind 5+L at 1 mile
Is wasn’t best performances, drifting out, 5 wide make move then went the other way
I also toss the grade 1 at GP against Colonel Liam and company but he has not done well in grade 1 company before.
Winner at the grade 2 and 3 level at Pimlico & Del Mar
This looks like a good spot for a win
2 – Floriforn
After 4 starts as a maiden, he finally won. The move to the turf made the difference
Since then, he’s has 5 starts 3 wins 1 second 1 third
Tried graded stakes level at Tampa, he had 11 post, pushed too earlier but still hung on for 3rd
Last out a win at Keeneland in top level allowance race coming from off the pace and out up late
Smallest field he’s ever run in and should be a good account of himself
4 – Get Smokin
Speed in the race with maybe Gray’s Fable but was completely out classed in Dubai running 6F on straight track. Strange placing.
Better at 2 turn races at 1 mile and 1 1/16 races and has won and placed in 1 1/16 races
He is a grade 3 stakes winner and will lead this bunch around but there is late runners to come and get him but he does fight on and hang around for a placing
Rich’s Ranks
Churchill Downs Race 5 – $200,000 REGRET STAKES GRADE III
3 – MCKULICK * TG
1 – WALKATHON
2 – BESIDE HERSELF
6 – CANDY RAID
Churchill Downs Race 7 – $200,000 SHAWNEE STAKES
5 – PAULINE’S PEARL
4 – ARMY WIFE * TG
6 – CRAZY BEAUTIFUL
3 – AVA’S GRACE
Churchill Downs Race 8 – $200,000 ARLINGTON STAKES GRADE III
5 – FIELD PASS
6 – GRAY’S FABLE
1 – ADMISSION OFFICE
2 – FLORIFORM * TG
