Golden Gate Track Announcer Matt Dinerman is this week’s The Player’s Edge guest. He joins the crew before the Biggest weekend of Golden Gate racing. Matt and the crew, with Terry, Tom, Shawn and Rich, will make their Saturday picks at Golden Gate, including:
Race 6 – $100,000 CALIFORNIA DERBY
Race 8 – $75,000 CALIFORNIA OAKS
Race 9 – $250,000 SAN FRANCISCO MILE STAKES GRADE III
Matt also tells us who he is leaning towards in the Kentucky Derby
follow Matt on twitter: https://twitter.com/3coltshandicap
Golden Gate Fields Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Golden Gate Race 6 – $100,000 CALIFORNIA DERBY
6 – Midnight Mammoth has finished in the money in seven out of eight career races. He always is in the mix finishing 100% in races on an all-weather course and the distance will not be a problem. He is very versatile as he can run on top or come from off the pace to win. The jockey should be able to see which way to ride him once the race starts.
1 – Il Capitano won his last race at Golden Gate Fields on the turf but he has won on an all-weather surface, so I have no concerns. He has a trainer who wins 27% of the time on all-weather surfaces and a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (17 5-3-1). He will go for the lead and try and go all the way on front to try and win.
3 – Boise so far in his career is a on or off horse, either he wins or runs out of the money. He is a deep closer which mean he needs to stay out of problems to get a clear run at the leaders. He has high % winning trainer Jonathan Wong who wins 25% of the time on all-weather surfaces, a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (12 4-2-1) and has a good 5F workout 23Apr GG 5f ft 1:00 H 7/64.
5 – Cabo Spirit has been competing in Graded races so this race is a class drop today. He has the highest last race speed rating; his best all-weather surface speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he has a good 4F workout on 25Apr SA 4f ft :47. H 13/75. The negative is he seems to do better on the turf, has one start on an all-weather surface and did not fare well.
Golden Gate Race 8 – $75,000 CALIFORNIA OAKS
6 – Sparka came in from Europe and promptly won her first race in the USA at Golden Gate Fields, closing to win at a mile. He has a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (20 5-4-0) and a good 5F workout on 23Apr GG 5f ft 1:00 H 7/64.
7 – My Kentucky Girl closed to win her debut race at Santa Anita receiving the highest last race speed rating and my gut feeling is she can go a lot longer distance. She has a high % winning trainer who wins 26% of the time when going dirt to all-weather surface, switches to a high % winning jockey and has a good 5F workout on 23Apr GG 5f ft 1:01 H 12/64.
9 – Anthonys Cleopatra has won two out of three career races finishing second in her last one at a mile, she has High % winning jockey, a high % winning trainer who wins 28% of the time when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again. Her best all-weather surface speed is fastest among today’s starters. The only negative she has is she likes to go to the front and lead to the wire and she ran a mile last race and faded at the end so today’s distance could be a little to long for her.
1 – Music Festival has won two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick. Her last race was at a mile so I believe she can handle today’s distance. She has a trainer who wins 20% of the time when bringing a horse back to race after 46-90 days away and a good 5F workout 23Apr GG 5f ft 1:01 H 12/64.
Golden Gate Race 9 – $250,000 SAN FRANCISCO MILE STAKES GRADE III
6 – Evening Sun came to Southern California from Great Britain and in his first race at Santa Anita he finished 6th after experiencing plenty of trouble and then shocked the betting public at Del Mar by winning in his next race. Since arriving he has finished in the money in four out of six races, winning three and has a good workout on 23Apr SA tr.t 5f ft 1:01 H 8/23 in preparation for this race.
5 – Jimmy Blue Jeans has won five out of ten races, each one at long odds so he likes to surprise the public but of course not the ones that have a winning ticket on him. He is very versatile as he can run on top or come from close off the pace to win. He has a high % winning trainer and jockey and this combo in last 14 days has won two out of five races including his last race at Golden Gate Fields.
12 – Tom’s Surprise has finished in the money in the last six races, winning four, including the last race. He has a high % winning trainer and jockey who has a in the last 7 days has this record (12 4-2-1).
14 – Ecrivain came in from France to Southern California and in his first race at Santa Anita he finished 3rd after having some trouble. His trainer wins 33% of the time when Shipping into a new track to race and he should improve with blinkers being added today.
$2.00 Exacta Box– Cost $72.00….$2.00 DD – Cost $32.00…All four horse in Race 8 & 9
Race 6: 1, 3, 5, 6
Race 8: 1, 6, 7, 9
Race 9: 5, 6, 12, 14
Swiss Army Shawn’s Selections
Golden Gate Race 6 – $100,000 CALIFORNIA DERBY
PACE PROJECTION: In this small 6 horse field you will have the horse from the rail #1 II Capitano and the outside horse #6 Midnight Mammoth both going out and trying to get the early lead. They both ran against each other last race and they ran the whole around the track one two but that was turf.
#1 II Capitano– Can wire this field from the rail. The only other speed is the #6 Midnight Mammoth who couldn’t keep up last race which was on the turf. I would expect the dirt to be better. Second start after a layoff and Evin Roman aboard who is 2 for 2 on him.
#2 II Bellator- Will be able to sit right off the two pace setters. The only horse in the field with more than 1 Golden Gate Synthetic win. 3rd start after 3-month layoff. Won his last race which was his first at this distance.
#6 Midnight Mammouth– Has speed and is always around as he has finished in the trifecta in 7 of 8 starts. Issue is only one win to his credit and he has finished behind the top 2 horses before.
Plays: $20 win #1 $2 exbox 1 /2,6
Golden Gate Race 8 – $75,000 CALIFORNIA OAKS
PACE PROJECTION: There is a lot of speed in this race with two really fast horses and some others that want forward position. The #2 Music Festival and #9 Anthonys Cleopatra will leave the gates looking for the lead right away. If one clears it might be over if not the closers could be coming.
#9 Anthonys Cleopatra– Has speed and will be looking to clear from the outside post. There is other speed in here but the main one #2 Music Festival she has raced and cleared before. Has ran 3 different distances won two and finished 2nd in the other. This will be her 4th different distance.
#3 My Kentucky Girl– Is the least experienced runner in the field with only 1 career race but has the highest Beyer number in the field by far with an 83. Will have pace to run into just a matter of can she run the leader down and will she like the distance.
#2 Music Festival– Took her 5 starts to break her maiden but now has won 2 in a row. Has won 2 of 4 at Golden Gate with a second. Has been the post time favorite in 5 of her 6 career starts.
Plays: $20 win #9 $1 exbox 2,3,9 $1 Tribox 2,3,9
Golden Gate Race 9 – $250,000 SAN FRANCISCO MILE STAKES GRADE III
PACE PROJECTION: This was a difficult one for me to project the pace. Looks like #3 Harmon, #5 Jimmy Blue Jeans, and #7 Tiz Plus all look like they have speed but also could just stalk.
#6 Evening Sun– Had been in really good form then had 4 months off and came right back and continued where he left off. Should sit about mid pack and come flying at the end. Has been good at the distance only missing the trifecta in 1 of 4 starts from this distance. His last 4 races his Beyer number has gone up.
#5 Jimmy Blue Jeans– Has won 3 of 4 career turf races including one at Golden Gate. The only one he lost was the Grade 2 Del Mar Derby which he was in tough and had a bumped start. Going back to the turf after 2 starts on the synthetic. Has speed but doesn’t need the lead. 3rd start back after an 8-month layoff.
#4 Vanzzy– Has raced in some tough races so is battle tested and fits here as far as class. Has won 3 of 10 on turf but only 1 of 5 at the distance. Gets one of the best turf riders in Joe Bravo.
Plays: $20 win #6 $1 Exbox 4,5,6 $1 Tribox 4,5,6
22 to 1 Tom’s Tips
Golden Gate Race 6 – $100,000 CALIFORNIA DERBY
3 – Boise
Won maiden and the Gold Rush last year at GG and then…not much
2 starts in 2022, was wide at SA on turf toss and had a troubled trip at GG toss
Works well for return: 1:00h and 1:12H
Gelded recently
Jockey won maiden on him before
Better price shot in short field
6 – Midnight Mammoth
Last 7 efforts in the money but 5 races were in maidens
Only a maiden winner and lost to some of these horses before
Past jockey choose to ride my top choice
So, why in the money?
7 out of 8 races in the money
Good work 1:00H for this race
Steve Sherman knows how to place horses and I don’t think he’s looking to win but get a piece here
4 – Cabo Spirit
Showed and even race early at Turfway and then didn’t finish
Won listed turf race at SA
Took a while to win maiden, but we have others in this field with the same challenge
Good work :47.4H for this race
Give another try on the all-weather because this is a different track than Turfway’s surface
Golden Gate Race 8 – $75,000 CALIFORNIA OAKS
3 – My Kentucky Girl
Trains at GG but went to SA to break maiden and speed number is 91 at 20-1
Bred for run distances and 2 turns shouldn’t be an issue
Works average coming into this race and at track
Jonathan Wong does well move from dirt to AW at 26%
Late run, she should be there in time
2 – Music Festival
Winner of last 2 on AW at GG (maiden and OC)
When asked to go in last race at 1/8 pole, she did just that
Should be on the frontend with company in this race
Average works and layoff are some questions
As with the other race, Steve Sherman knows how to place horses
5 – Distorted Queen
Took 4 races to figure out how to win, on the frontend
Last 2 races were good effort on turf and AW showing speed form the start
She will just need to hold on to get a placing here
Golden Gate Race 9 – $250,000 SAN FRANCISCO MILE STAKES GRADE III
14 – Ecrivain
Favorite last out and ran like he needed a race, running 3rd
Awful post 14 for this race so he will have to do some running here
Group 3 winner at Chantilly over a group 1 winner
Raced in top company facing Palace Pier, Poetic Flare, Real World
Has run in longer races (best finish 3rd in group 3)
Jessica Pyfer up for the ride and she will have to do some magic to get him home
8 – Delaware
Even effort last out at 6 1/2F at SA running 3rd
Over matched in 3 previous races but still managed to get 4th in 2 of those races
A winner of 3 races at distance but his record is good at 1 mile 14 starts 3 wins 2 seconds 3 thirds and almost all his money won
Top local rider helps and should give a good account of himself with this group
3 – Harmon
Won last on the frontend with a good speed rating of 92
Consistent with other efforts lately winning or good runs on AW
He’s 1 for 1 at the distance
Good post to set the pace should hang around at the end
Rich’s Ranks
Golden Gate Race 6 – $100,000 CALIFORNIA DERBY
3 – BOISE
1 – IL CAPITANO
2 – IL BELLATOR
6 – MIDNIGHT MAMMOTH
Golden Gate Race 8 – $75,000 CALIFORNIA OAKS
9 – ANTHONYS CLEOPATRA
3 – MY KENTUCKY GIRL
2 – MUSIC FESTIVAL
6 – SPARKA
Golden Gate Race 9 – $250,000 SAN FRANCISCO MILE STAKES GRADE III
12 – TOM’S SURPRISE
5 – JIMMY BLUE JEANS
11 – RESTRAINEDVENGENCE
9 – CAMINO DEL PARAISO
