Retired quarter horse jockey and race analyst Samantha Perry joins The Player’s Edge to talk up some of the big races at Monmouth Park this Saturday, including:
Monmouth R11: $150,000 EATONTOWN STAKES GRADE III
Monmouth R12: $150,000 PEGASUS STAKES
Monmouth R13: $150,000 MONMOUTH STAKES GRADE III
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Monmouth Park Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Monmouth R11: $150,000 EATONTOWN STAKES GRADE III
8 – Fluffy Socks ran 2nd in the G3-Modesty at Churchill Downs on the turf by closing and just missing by a ½ of a length. She received the highest last race speed rating and is tied with Princess Grace for the best turf speed among today’s starters.
6 – Princess Grace has finished in the money in nine out of nine races on the turf during her career, winning six. She finished 3rd in her last race after having trouble in the race, she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
1 – Vigilantes Way has high % winning Jockey Paco Lopez who is hot right now finishing in the money in last 7 days ten out of sixteen starts winning five of the starts. She will have a small advantage as the rail post is winning at 27% clip.
5 – Whimsical Muse won her last race on the turf at Monmouth Park and at today’s distance and has trainer Kelly Breen whose entries win 21% of the time in the next race after winning the race before.
Monmouth R12: $150,000 PEGASUS STAKES
4 – Electability has won two out of the last three races, earning the highest last race speed rating and finishing 3rd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today and the shorter distance will help.
1 – Cyberviking has finished in the money in eight out of nine races on the turf during his career, winning four of the starts. He gets the rail post which is winning at 29% clip and is stretching out which I think will fit with his running style.
2 – Home Brew has won three out of five career starts, winning the last races at Oaklawn Park. He is trained by Brad Cox and ridden by Florent Geroux which is a plus and has a decent workout on 12Jun CD 4f ft :48.2 B 18/78.
7 – Dash Attack won his last race at Monmouth Park and the trainer wins 25% of Non-Graded Stake that he enters a horse in. He has a good workout on 04Jun CD 4f ft :47.4 B 7/124.
Monmouth R13: $150,000 MONMOUTH STAKES GRADE III
3 – Public Sector competed in the G1-Turf Classic finishing a disappointing 6th after being pinched and pulled back at the beginning of the race. If he can get a cleaner start in today’s contest and stay closer to the leaders, he will be in a good place to close and win the race.
1 – Yes This Time has the rail post which is winning at 20% clip. He likes the turf winning six out of twelve starts and is one for one at today’s distance. He has a jockey who finished in the money ten out of sixteen starts in last 7 days, winning five of the races and has a good 4F workout on Jun-11.
6- Sacred Life ran 2nd in the G2 – Fort Marcy and drops to a G3 race, his last win was the G3 – Knickerbocker which he won last October. His best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he switches to jockey Manny Franco who is winning at a 19% clip this year.
5 – Ever Dangerous has finished in the money in eight out of ten races on the turf during his career, winning three of the starts and has the highest last race speed rating (tie). He has been off since last August but has been steadily working out for his return and he has done well in the past returning from a break.
$.50 Pick 4 – Cost $96.00
Race 11: 1, 5, 6, 8
Race 12: 1, 2, 4, 7
Race 13: 1, 3, 5, 6
Race 14: 1, 3, 6
Swiss Army Shwan’s Selections
Monmouth R11: $150,000 EATONTOWN STAKES GRADE III
PACE PROJECTION: There is quite a bit of pace in here to set up for the stalkers and closers.
#1 VIGILANTES WAY– Seems like she is always there at the finish. Will get plenty of pace to run at and gets the rail which has been winning at a high percentage. Has never been out of the exacta in his 4 starts on the Monmouth turf. Second start back after an eight-month layoff.
#7 LEMISTA-She will get the hot pace she wants to be able to close. Has only raced in 5 races the last 2 years. This will be her second race back after a 7-month layoff. I like this race comes only a month after the comeback race. Some changes that could really help our she gets a new Jockey and races at Monmouth for the first time.
#8 FLUFFY SOCKS – She is always coming late so if she gets the anticipated fast pace it will really help her. Has finished in the trifecta in 10 of her 12 turf starts. Has had quite a few second-place finishes where she misses out on the win by less than a length 4 to be exact, New Jockey and new track. Has raced against tougher than this.
Plays: $20 win #1 $1 Exbox 1,7,8 $1 Tribox 1,7,8
Monmouth R12: $150,000 PEGASUS STAKES
PACE PROJECTION: There appears to be a decent amount of speed in here although most look more like pressers. I’m going to guess the outside horse #9 JAMIE DREAMS really tries to get the early lead and ultimately gets the early lead if not the #4 ELECTABILITY will.
#1 CYBERVIKING– He has only ever had one bad race other than that he has finished in the exacta in 8 of 9 career races, winning 4 of them. He stretched out to 1 mile last race and got second, now gets an extra 1/16 which shouldn’t be a problem.
#4 ELECTABILITY– He has won 2 of his 4 races. The 2 wins are his only two tries on a fast dirt track. Another interesting fact is that he is 2 for 2 when Eric Cancel is aboard, while going 0 for 2 with a Hall of Famer Javier Castellano and future Hall of Famer Jose Ortiz. Now gets Manuel Franco aboard. He has faced tougher than this.
#3 MR JEFFERSON – Has raced against some really tough competition. Has lost to MO DONGAL, EARLY VOTING, ETHEREAL ROAD. He should be able to get enough pace to close here and get a piece.
PLAYS: $20 win #1 $1 EXBOX 1,3,4 $1TRIBOX 1,3,4
Monmouth R13: $150,000 MONMOUTH STAKES GRADE III
PACE PROJECTION: Not a bunch of pace in here. I see the #7 SAFE CONDUCT getting challenged by the #9 EPIC BROMANCE for the early lead.
#3 PUBLIC SECTOR– He is back out of Grade I races after back to back races out of the money. He has finished in the exacta in all 8 career races that were not Grade I, winning 5 of those. Should be around mid pack before making his run.
#1 YES THIS TIME– He gets the rail and Paco Lopez. Has won half of his 12 career starts on the turf. He gets to try Monmouth again after trying it for the first time last race finishing 4th.
#11 HIDDEN STASH– He could add value to your exotics In his 4 career starts on the turf he has finished in the trifecta in all 4.
PLAYS: $20 win #3 $1 exbox 1,3,11 $1 Tribox 1,3,11
21 to 1 Tom’s Tips
Monmouth R11: $150,000 EATONTOWN STAKES GRADE III
1 – Vigilantes Way
First start of season, ran 2nd missing by a neck, she had to wait to get going
Likes distance 9 starts 4 wins 3 seconds 2 thirds
There is pace to run at just needs the trip from the rail and had rail last time
She won this race last year and I think she repeats off her last race run
7 – Lemista
Raced at BEL last out running 4th for seasonal debut, made a move and flattened out.
She’s won at group 2 level in Ireland and placed in this country in grade 1 and grade 3 races only stinker was in the Diana and that had some top horses from Europe and locals running
A better run and fitness results in better results here
Chad Brown/John Velazquez are to good have too
8 – Fluffy Socks
2 races this season 2 seconds doing her normal thing of closing at the end
She’s faced this level before and won but she only has 1 win last year in grade 2 at longer distance
She even ran ok on the dirt last year in the American Oaks
She will be along in time to pick up a check
Monmouth R12: $150,000 PEGASUS STAKES
6 – King of Hollywood
DH last out in MTH at 1 mile in allowance race, had to be steady with 1F left, running from the outside.
Started racing career on turf, not much
Moved to maiden claimers and final won going wire to wire at AQU
Tried stakes on AW track, nothing, why they did this????
Steps up and in form to fly at the end
2 – Home Brew
Won last at OP after making bid and getting a bit tired at the end, he held on
Nothing in Smarty Jones as the favorite on off track
Good works for his return and should be coming at the end or are they going to put him on the lead?
The last race took something out of him but the works indicate to me he’s ready for a big effort after the layoff
3 – Mr Jefferson
After 2 off track runs and did nothing, layoff and returned to run 2nd (a neck) and then 3rd (by a distance) coming last on the seen
Toss the turf races and off track runs and he’s done ok overall
He’s having 2 runs at distance 1 win 1 third
I am using him, and he may surprise at a price
Monmouth R13: $150,000 MONMOUTH STAKES GRADE III
6 – Yes This Time
First start of the season at MTH was a good measure of things to come. 3 wide on the turn for home and moved up a little but not doing enough to win
He won 5 in a row last season including grade 3 before trying grade 1 company. In the Saratoga Derby, he ran poorly with issues to State Of Rest who just won at Royal Ascot
Placed in 3 races after that but put away after those races before the MTH start
Race after layoff needed and top effort today
8 – Glynn County
Toss last, he’s not a dirt horse even on sloppy track ran on the lead for awhile and than stopped
The Fort Marcy was a rough race for him, troubled start, drops back and drifted, got up for 3rd but…
Started season at Keeneland in an allowance race that could have been a grade stakes race, found trouble again
A clean trip and laying close to the leaders would be a nice change
He likes the distance with 3 starts 1 win and 2 thirds
4 – TD Dance
Ran in that same race as my top choice did at Keeneland and missed by a head with a slow start but recovered enough to make a run
Changes trainers after that race and adding blinkers for today’s race
Since that change, he’s had 2 really good works that suggest improvement today
Where will he sit in the race this time?
But whatever happens, you will see him at the finish line in the money
Rich’s Ranks
Monmouth R11: $150,000 EATONTOWN STAKES GRADE III
6 – Princess Grace
1 – Vigilante’s Way
5 – Whimsical Music
8 – Fluffy Socks
Monmouth R12: $150,000 PEGASUS STAKES
4 – Electability
2 – Home Brew
6 – King of Hollywood
1 – Cyberviking
Monmouth R13: $150,000 MONMOUTH STAKES GRADE III
6 – Sacred Life
1 – Yes This Time
10 – Oceans Map
3 – Public Sector – if he runs, if not…
12 – Mohs
