Emerging horse racing personality Sara Elbadwi from Horse Racing Nation is this week’s The Player’s Edge guest. She joins the crew to share her story and makes her picks, along with Terry, Tom, Shawn and Rich, for the biggest stakes races this weekend at Oaklawn Park, including:
Race 5: Apple Blossom Handicap
Race 8: Oaklawn Stakes
Race 11: Oaklawn Handicap
Follow Sara on Twitter: https://twitter.com/OutrunTheOdds
Oaklawn Park Horse Racing Picks and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Oaklawn Race 5 – $1 M APPLE BLOSSOM HANDICAP GRADE I
2 – Letruska has finished in the money in eighteen out of twenty-four career races. She disappointed in the BC – Distaff-G1 but the fractions were blazing (1/4: 21:84-1/2: 44:97-3/4: 109:7: 1mile: 135:28: 1-1/8 mile: 147:67) and it was her 3rd Grade 1 race in a row in two months. I think she had a good rest and then won a Grade 3 race in February. There does not seem to have any real speed to pressure her so she should lead all the way.
3 – Clairiere is another entry that will be closing as most of the field will to try and win the race and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and she has the highest last race speed rating. The trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has finished in the money four out of six races, winning two of the races.
5 – Ce Ce won the Azeri- G2 in March in her usual style breaking mid-pack and closing in the stretch to win – She will try and repeat that performance, but I don’t think she will catch Letruska.
1 – Maracuja won her last race at Oaklawn Park by closing from deep. She has veteran Jockey Ricardo Santana, Jr. who in in last 7 days has a great performance winning seven out of thirteen starts (13 7-0-2) and a good 4F workout on 15Apr OP 4f ft :48.2 B 12/67.
Oaklawn Race 8 – $150,000 OAKLAWN STAKES
7 – Happy Boy Rocket has only had one clunker race which happened on March 12th but had excuses as he was shuffled back at the start and came 5-wide in the far turn. In his next race he ran 3rd but again experienced trouble breaking thru the gate before the start which in my opinion really affects a horse’s performance. I think you will see a much better race today.
4 – Home Brew ran a disappointing last race as the favorite finishing 8th but I don’t think he liked the sloppy track, and trainer Brad Cox wins 31% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race. The trainer in last 14 days has won four out of the last seven races. I think he will go to the front and try to lead all the way for the win, but Happy Boy Rocket will catch him.
6 – The Skipper Too has ran 2nd in his last two races closing from deep and earning the highest last race speed rating. He switches to high % winning trainer John Ortiz and switches to high % winning jockey Ricardo Santana, Jr.
1 – Clancy’s Pistol had a disappointing finish in his last race at a mile but won the two prior races at 1-1/16 miles. That indicates to me that that last race was not long enough, and this horse needs a longer distance, so the 1-1/16 is just what he may need. He has high % winning trainer Robertino Diodoro who knows how to get horses conditioned well for longer races.
Oaklawn Race 11 – $1M OAKLAWN HANDICAP GRADE II
1 – Beau Luminarie has finished in the money in the last ten races, winning three. He broke very slow in his last race lost 2nd place to Plainsman by only a neck and was only 2-1/4 lengths behind Rated R Superstar. A better break and he would have won that race. He will be closing like a freight train in the stretch and will win the race.
5 – Rated R Superstar won the G3 – Essex closing to beat Plainsman and Beau Luminarie. He has the highest last race speed rating and jockey Ricardo Santana, Jr. The last race he won was 1-1/16 miles and I think the addition 1/16th of a mile will allow Beau Luminarie to catch him and win the race.
8 – Fearless won his last race the Ghostzapper Grade 3 Stakes easily at today’s distance. He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters. He will be mid-pack and close in the lane to and try to win but I think Beau Luminarie will catch him at the wire.
6 – Plainsman ran 2nd in the G3 – Essex leading all the way until Rated R Superstar passed him to win the race. He has a high % winning trainer who in the last 7 days has won four out of nine starts.
PLAYS
Race 5: 2 with 3, 5
$20.00 exacta – Cost $40.00
Race 8: 1, 4, 6, 7
$5.00 exacta box – Cost $30.00
Race 11: 1, 5, 6, 8
$5.00 exacta box – Cost $30.00
Swiss Army Shawn’s Selections
Oaklawn Race 5 – $1 M APPLE BLOSSOM HANDICAP GRADE I
PACE PROJECTION: #2 Letruska looks like she will be able to do exactly what she wants and go out and control the race. The only horse in the field that could apply some pressure when the gate opens would be #4 Miss Imperial but probably not fast enough.
#2 Letruska– The best horse in the field that also has the pace advantage. Sign me up especially if it’s really possible to get 7/5? She has won 18 of 23 career races on the dirt. She also loves this distance winning 6 of 7 career races with a second. Jose Ortiz is 3 for 3 on her.
#5 Ce Ce– In very good form and is 2 for 2 at Oaklawn. Would benefit greatly if someone can pressure Letruska. If not she will just fill out the exacta as Letruska will be gone.
#3 Clairiere– Really against it with the pace scenario in this race. Also up against with class as I don’t think she can contend with the top 2 on their best day. Will be closing late.
Plays: $40 win #2
Oaklawn Race 8 – $150,000 OAKLAWN STAKES
PACE PROJECTION: Looks like the horse Jose Ortiz is on again gets the pace advantage again #4 Home Brew could be unchallenged for the early lead.
#4 Home Brew– Is undefeated on a fast dirt track 2 for 2. Simply did not like the sloppy track last time and was also up against tougher horses in the Smarty Jones. Could get an easy lead but doesn’t need to the lead to win. First time Jose Ortiz rides.
#6 The Skipper Too– This horse has been getting better and is ready for a huge race. Has the highest last race Beyer number of an 81. First off the claim for John Ortiz. Talked to John on Thursday. He said this horse was originally scheduled to go to the Arkansas Derby but was congested after his final work. They managed to get him to work a bit sharper and all systems are a go for this race.
#2 Stellar Tap– Has been a big favorite 3 times and lost all 3 of those races. Talent wise fits here and definitely needs to be used in exotics but I refuse to play on top.
Plays: $20 win #4 $4 exbox 4,6
Oaklawn Race 11 – $1M OAKLAWN HANDICAP GRADE II
PACE PROJECTION: A lot more pace in this one as I see the #2 Thomas Shelby getting the lead but the outside 3 horses applying some pressure and stalking him.
#8 Fearless– Class of the field. Has been up against tough horses every race and does more than hold his own. Has finished in the exacta in 11 of 14 starts. Could get the perfect trip here having the outside post and a bunch of speed to the inside of him. First time Jose Ortiz rides.
#2 Thomas Shelby– The speed of the speed. Has been in some pace duels and always seems to hold on for a piece. Last start against some of these same horses had the rail and got a horrible start as he was last away and had to rush up to get the lead. Faded late and held on for 4th.likes the distance winning 2 of 3 with a 2nd.
#5 Rated R Superstar– The elder statesman of the group now 9 years old he has really been good of late. Winning 3 of his last 5 races and one of those losses he finished 2nd just missing out by less than a length. Will have a fast pace to run into.
Plays: $10 Ex 8/2,5 $1 Tri 2,5,8 $1 Exbox 2,5,8
22 to 1 Tom’s Tips
Oaklawn Race 5 – $1 M APPLE BLOSSOM HANDICAP GRADE I
2 – Letruska
After her failure in the BC race, she took time off and came back to win a grade 3 at GP on the frontend showing pace, a little wide but easily.
Won at Oaklawn before beating a “game” Monomoy Girl
Works into this race are consistence with the 3/13 work :47.4B stands out and the prep work at Keeneland
She likes OP, 4 starts 2 wins 1 second 1 third
Over raced last year?
Who’s going to keep pace with her in this race?
3 – Clairiere
Her run at FG last out was perfect prep for this race, winning by 6 1/2L. She ran her race, a bit wide, moved up and won for fun in OC80c
Her works at Oaklawn have been good overall and it was good to see they worked her in the mud
She was floated wide in the BC race and still closed for 4th, losing by ½L
She maybe too far back to catch the top choice but she will be moving at the end
1 – Maracuja
Good local prep for this race, beating OC100k types by 2L while wide and wore down the leader. Definitely need the race
Like Clairiere, ran against in the top 3 year old races last year with mixed results.
Upset at Saratoga in CCAOaks grade 1 and then disappointing run in the Alabama
Issues at the start at Parx where the winner was Clairiere in the Cotillion
She an up and down horse who may matured to be more consist, will see
Oaklawn Race 8 – $150,000 OAKLAWN STAKES
7 – Happy Boy Rocket
He’s last race was a mess in the mud at OP, broke thru the gate, dwelt at the start but still rallied for 3rd.
Toss the Tampa race, was shuffled back at the start and showed little in the running
Too get more from this horse, Bill Mott is adding blinkers
If he isn’t a handful again and settles with a good break, he will be running at the end
2 – Stellar Tap
Traffic problems last out but got up for 2nd but this is a horse who appears to like to find problems in he’s races
Since his maiden win at Saratoga, every race since, something has happened. What if he gets a clean trip?
He could win, if (and it’s a big if) stay out of trouble because the distance suits and maybe that’s what he needs, more distance1
1 – Clancy’s Pistol
Nice claim by Diodoro for 30k, someone did there home work because he win off the claim to a modest allowance race. There is upside for this son of Lookin At Lucky
Last race, caught wide on the first turn didn’t help his chances even coming out of the 3 post. The notes say no rally, I say strange trip, yes he face better, including by 2nd choice but he found trouble too
I also think this horse needs for distance and the 1 1/8 races suits, he will improve and will be running at the end.
Oaklawn Race 11 – $1M OAKLAWN HANDICAP GRADE II
2 – Thomas Shelby
I am not quite sure why he is 8-1 in the morning line?
He has a good post, plenty of early speed and can fight to the finish
Last race, he was last away, moved up, dueled for a lot of the running and ran 4th.
Considering the trip, it was a hard race but good effort
Same tough race vs Plainsmen, he lost but ran good overall
As in their past, Plainsmen will keep him company in this race up front
He beat the Dubai Cup winner last year at Saratoga going the same distance
Unlike some others in this race, he’s had some time off between the last race and 2 works.
Let’s see if he can take them around the track, come and catch me
4 – Idol
He is lightly races 7 starts with 3 wins 2 seconds 1 third for a 5-year-old
His worst effort was last out at SA in grade 1, something went wrong
He’s beaten Express Train in the Big Cap
He also lost to him
He handles layoffs with good efforts and coming into this race, he has very good workouts especially 1:12.4H, 1:12.2H and :59.4H and slowed him down in last work
If he ready, he can handle this bunch
Like Plainsmen, they haven’t gelded him so someone see so breeding opportunities
8 – Fearless
Big win last out by 6+L took over and was ridden out
Has run at OP twice and finished 2nd twice
No Lasix in last 4 races, added today
He’s been at many different tracks and wins or shows up in every race
Add Jose Ortiz and outside post, he will be running again at the end
Rich’s Ranks
Oaklawn Race 5 – $1 M APPLE BLOSSOM HANDICAP GRADE I
2 – Letruska
5 – CE CE
1 – Maracuja
3 – Clairiere
Oaklawn Race 8 – $150,000 OAKLAWN STAKES
4 – Home Brew
6 – The Skipper Too
2 – Stellar Picks
1 – Clancy’s Pistol
Oaklawn Race 11 – $1M OAKLAWN HANDICAP GRADE II
2 – Thomas Shelby
6 – Plainsman
8 – Fearless
5 – Rated R Superstar
