Big Money Trainer John Ortiz joins The Player’s Edge to share the secrets to his success in $100k+ races. Plus, his thoughts on a trio of his horses running Saturday at Oaklawn Park, including BARBER ROAD in the Arkansas Derby.
We’ll also cover:
Oaklawn Park Race 5 – $200,000 CAROUSEL STAKES
Oaklawn Park Race 11 – Allowance Optional Claiming
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Oaklawn Park Race 5 – $200,000 CAROUSEL STAKES
6 – Joy’s Rocket ran 2nd in the G2 Raven Run and is having her fifth jockey change to Jose Lezcano who may be able to get her to the finish line first. She will be closing to try and nip Frank’s Rockette at the wire.
2 – Frank’s Rockette ran 2nd in a G3 race and has taken a 3 – plus month break after competing in a four race stretch without a win at four different tracks. Her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and she has a nice 5F workout on Mar-27, but I think she needs at least one race before she is successful.
4 – Acting Out won her last race by going to the front and staying there until the end. She will not have as easy of the time as I think Frank’s Rockette will go with her and put a lot of pressure on her.
3 – Novel Squall is another entry that will be closing along with Joy’s Rocket to try and win the race. She has a Trainer/Jockey combo who in the last 14 days has finished in the money four out of seven races, winning two of the races and has an exceptionally good 4F workout on Mar-27 so anything is possible in this race.
Race 11 – Allowance Optional Claiming
5 – Gar Hole has won four races in a row at today’s distances easily, has the highest last race speed rating and has the high % winning trainer John Ortiz. Unless there is a problem with traffic during the race, I cannot imagine this horse losing. He will come from off the pace and pass the front runners.
6 – Absolute Chaos will go to the lead and try to lead all the way for the win. Gar Hole will pass him coming down the stretch.
1 – Storm the Court comes in from Southern California after taken off for more than a year. He has a good workout on 14Mar SA 5f ft :59.4 H 2/50 and drops in class today after running in nothing but graded stakes races last year. He will pressure Absolute Chaos for the lead but I think he needs a race to carry his speed for the win.
8 – Macron has finished in the money in his last five races at Oaklawn Park, winning two of the races. If he gets a good start he will run just behind the pace and close at the end, but I think he will come up short.
Race 12 – $1.25 M ARKANSAS DERBY GRADE I
6 – Secret Oath won the G3 Honeybee by a large 7-1/2 lengths and is trained by “The Coach” D Wayne Lukas. She is going against the boys, but I think she will have no problems as she has won four out of her six race career by several lengths and is perfect at Oaklawn Park. She will bide her time until they turn into the stretch and then close like a freight train to win the race.
9 – We the People does not know what it feels like to lose a race yet. He has won both of his career races easily and has a good 4F workout on 26Mar OP 4f ft :47.4 B 3/94. He moves up in class from his last start and it may cause him to learn what it is to lose a race. He will be setting close to the speed to close and try to win.
3 – Barber Road ran 3rd in the G3 Rebel closing from deep to only lose by ½ of a length and has high % winning trainer John Ortiz. He now extends out to a 1-1/8 which may be just what he needs to catch the leaders.
4 – Doppelganger is another horse who comes in from Southern California after running 2nd in the G3 San Felipe after getting off to a slow. He has several great workouts in preparation for this race and is another that will be closing at the end, but I think will come up a little short.
$10.00 exacta – Cost $100.00
Race 5: 4 with 2, 3, 4
Race 11: 5 with 1, 6, 8
Race 12: 6 with 3, 4, 9…. $10.00 to win on # 6
Swiss Army Shawn’s Selections
Oaklawn Park Race 5 – $200,000 CAROUSEL STAKES
PACE PROJECTION: Looks to me like there could be a battle upfront between the #2 Frank’s Rockette and #4 Acting Out.
#4 Acting Out– Came back after a 7 month layoff and wired a field that included the 2nd and 3rd ML choice in this field. Should be the leader again and be the speed of the speed in a field that has others who like to get out in front. Has finished in the exacta in 4 of 6 career races on the dirt, 3 of 4 at the distance.
#2 Frank’s Rockette– Has had a 3 month layoff but if he’s ready to go will be tough in here. Has faced a lot bettor of competition than this field. Will be close to the pace. Has finished in the exacta in 14 of 19 career races winning 8 of them.
#6 Joy’s Rocket– May get the run of the race being on the outside and having pace to run into. Has finished in the exacta in 5 of 6 career races on a fast dirt track. The issue with this horse is can you take a short price on a horse that hasn’t won since 2020?
Plays: $20 win #4 $1 Tribox 2,4,6
Race 11 – Allowance Optional Claiming
PACE PROJECTION: Lots of speed in this race. There are no closers as all these horses either want to be on the lead or close to it.
#5 Gar Hole– Has won 4 out of his 5 career races. All 4 of the consecutive wins have been dominant. Only bad race was his debut where he finished 8th out of 12 horses. That race was on a muddy track. He attempted to go for the lead then just faded. He had off for over 10 months after that race and now can’t lose. All of his career races have been at this distance 6 furlongs.
#8 Macron– Has speed and can be close to the pace but did show a different dimension last time out closing from almost last to finish 2nd. Same tactic here may work since there is a bunch of speed. Has finished in the exacta in 6 of 9 career races.
#11 Supremacy– Another that has speed but has shown a dimension of being able to close. This is his 3rd race since the 8 month layoff. The first two races back he has had a troubled start. First one back he got bumped second one he broke slow. Needs a clean trip and has a shot in here for a good finish.
Plays: $20 win #5 $1 exbox 5,8,11 $1 Tribox 5,8,11
Race 12 – $1.25 M ARKANSAS DERBY GRADE I
PACE PROJECTION: On paper looks like the #1 Kavod gets the early lead with some stalkers behind him. The closest one is probably from the outside #9 We the People. #6 Secret Oath will sit about mid pack and close in while #5 Un Ojo will be coming late.
#6 Secret Oath– She has just dominated since going to Oaklawn and getting Luis Contreras aboard. Winning all 3 of her races there and all by more than 7 lengths. Has never gone this distance but the way she races at the end she looks like she wants and can handle further. Has the two highest Beyer numbers in the field with a 92 and 93.
#5 Un Ojo– Has been on top of his game finishing in the exacta in his last 3 starts despite being high odds in all of them. He won the Rebel at 75-1. Has worked out well since and should be there at the end again.
#9 We the People– Has done nothing wrong winning his first two career starts both by more than 5 lengths. They both were at Oaklawn as well. Will get his first big test here but should get a nice trip from the outside and should be close to the pace setter the #1 Kavod. Had a great workout last week as well.
Plays: $20 win #6 $1 Tribox 5,6,8,9
22 to 1 Tom’s Tips
Oaklawn Park Race 5 – $200,000 CAROUSEL STAKES
5 – Li’l Tootsie
Missed last out vs some of these horses going wide and not finishing, need race
Favorite in the American Beauty and was away slow from starting gate
James Graham in to ride and has won on her before
Get the most out of her at the start to sit off the lead
She needs clear running and in this size of field, she will have her chance
6 – Joy’s Rocket
Missed last time, ran a good race moving out but could get past Acting Out
This is 2 missing in a row
New jockey in Jose Lezcano maybe what she needs to get the job done
She was favorite in first start of the year and was empty, need it
Last 2 are strong but
Good enough to finish in the money again but won’t be surprised if she wins
1 – Wildwood’s Beauty
Won first start of the year and then ran very even type races next 2
Last year in this race, she made her move too soon
There is plenty of speed here, but she could be the front runner depending
Good work coming into this race :47.4B
Based on her record at this distance 11 starts 1 win 4 seconds 3 thirds, she will finish in the money but win?
Race 11 – Allowance Optional Claiming
5 – Gar Hole
Nice win last out, from 9 post, pressed the pace and won by 5L
He’s the hot horse, 5 starts 4 wins (all starts at Oaklawn)
Now facing open company for first time, has the numbers to compete and win
The work of :47.3B coming into this race looks like a good prep
Now, can he get the job done vs open company?
11 – Supremacy
Didn’t break well at the start, sitting last before finding his best stride late
Better effort at FG when he sat closer to the past, chased and didn’t finish at the favorite
This is one very slow developing horse who’s races are always spaced apart because?
Works look ok and needs some breaks to be there at the end
Now, can they get the best out of this horse this time?
Right jockey/trainer combo, let’s see what they can do
1 – Storm the Court
Big drop in class, ships in and Prat get the ride for Peter Eurton
BC Cup winner who’s not won since that race but been good enough to run in the money in 2020 but not 2021 – debut at 6F?
Works are ok, nothing special
50k OC race at a distance he’s never run
Has a race at Oaklawn but failed badly
I am putting him in the money only because I don’t think he can win
They had high hopes for this horse but he’s not gotten past being ahead of the class as a 2 year old, let’s see if this is the spot
Overbet favorite?
Race 12 – $1.25 M ARKANSAS DERBY GRADE I
8 – Cyberknife
Winner last out as favorite in ALW race at FG, I think he got a lot out of that race for the owners/trainer to place him here
The Lecomte, he moved but didn’t finish is the best way to describe the race
3 races to break maiden but was DQ in first race and they removed the blinkers after that race
He will be close the lead in this race
Sire like to run distances and mare was a work horse with 33 starts and 11 wins and ran distance too
6 – Secret Oath
3 races at Oaklawn, 3 wins and wins by 7L plus
It appears she is doing this well within herself because the speed/pace numbers are not very fast but she won her last 3 races by combined 23L
She’s going to be forwardly placed to have a chance, but she will have to wait to get going here last
It’s been 38 years since D Wayne Lukas tried and won the AK Derby with a filly by the name of Althea
He’s not had the top class horses over the past years but this one could be his best in a long time but he’s always been better with the fillies/mares than with colts
Sire was triple crown winner, mare was pretty good, 35 starts, stakes winner and ran twice in the Apple Blossom finishing in the money. Siblings has also won at Oaklawn
1 – Kavod
Rail and speed again, comment was stubborn before giving way
Should set the pace again and switch of jockey’s to Mitch Murrill
The mud work was good at 1:00b and then a slow maintenance work as prep
Claimed to 50k and they ran in successive stakes races, winning effort in one race and then running 4th in 3 times
Try again and should be a price
Rich’s Ranks
Oaklawn Park Race 5 – $200,000 CAROUSEL STAKES
5 LI’L TOOTSIE
2 FRANK’S ROCKETTE
3 NOVEL SQUALL
6 JOY’S ROCKET
Race 11 – Allowance Optional Claiming
5 – GAR HOLE
8 – MACRON
11 – SUPREMACY
1 – STORM THE COURT
Race 12 – $1.25 M ARKANSAS DERBY GRADE I
9 WE THE PEOPLE
6 SECRET OATH
3 BARBER ROAD
1 KAVOD
