Can Raw Speed Hold Off Hidden Value in the Grade I Bing Crosby Stakes?
Del Mar • Race 10 • Grade I • 6 Furlongs • Purse: $400,000
Some races are won by the fastest horse.
Others are won by the horse that gets the right trip.
Saturday’s Grade I Bing Crosby Stakes could come down to which of those stories unfolds.
Named in honor of entertainer Bing Crosby, one of Del Mar’s founders and biggest ambassadors, the Bing Crosby Stakes has become one of the premier sprint races in North America. The six-furlong Grade I has long served as an important stepping stone toward the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, attracting some of the country’s fastest horses year after year.
This year’s edition looks especially intriguing because the raw speed numbers don’t perfectly align with the betting market.
What History Says
Our Profile of a Winner provides an important starting point.
Through the first fourteen six-furlong dirt races at Del Mar this meet:
- Eight winners led every step of the way.
- The rail has underperformed.
- Posts 4 through 7 have also won less often than expected.
- Posts 2, 3 and 8+ have produced the strongest historical results.
Simply put…
Early speed has been king.
That makes today’s projected pace one of the race’s biggest handicapping questions.
Understanding Today’s Smart Sheets
Before diving into the field, it’s worth explaining a few Smart Sheets metrics you’ll see throughout this analysis.
SIM Odds are generated by running today’s race 1,000 times. Unlike the Morning Line, which estimates how the public will bet, SIM Odds estimate how often each horse actually wins in those simulations.
PAR+ measures how often a horse exceeded the projected winning speed figure for today’s class level during those 1,000 simulations. A higher percentage means the horse consistently runs fast enough to win races like today’s.
C-Zone compares today’s projected pace to the pace scenarios from a horse’s previous winning races. The higher the percentage, the more today’s race resembles conditions where that horse has already proven successful.
Today’s Smart Sheets FREEVIEW – Woodbine
1 – MAXIMUM BOURBON (7/2 ML • 8-1 SIM)
Why He Can Win
Maximum Bourbon enters with enough tactical ability to stay involved early while showing continued improvement in his recent races. His 23.8% PAR+ suggests he occasionally runs fast enough to compete at this level, and positive class movement indicates he’s moving into today’s race in good form. If the leaders soften each other through aggressive fractions, he has enough versatility to capitalize.
Why He Might Not
Smart Sheets remains cautious. His SIM Odds drift from 7/2 to 8-1, suggesting he wins less often than the public is likely to believe. He also lacks the elite Total Pace numbers of the top contenders and draws the rail, a post that has historically underperformed in six-furlong Del Mar sprints.
2 – LISTENUPSHANCE (8-1 ML • 8-1 SIM)
Why He Can Win
This may be the cleanest fit between the Morning Line and the simulations. LISTENUPSHANCE benefits from Post 2, historically one of the strongest starting positions at this distance. He also shows improvement across multiple pace segments while receiving a positive class move, giving him every opportunity to work out a favorable stalking trip.
Why He Might Not
While consistent, he doesn’t dominate any major Smart Sheets category. His 24.9% PAR+ is respectable but not exceptional, and he’ll likely need another forward move to match the race’s fastest horses.
3 – DR. VENKMAN (4-1 ML • 29-1 SIM)
Why He Can Win
On paper, DR. VENKMAN has already proven he belongs in graded company. His connections have been outstanding, and he owns enough natural ability to make his presence felt if he delivers one of his better efforts.
Why He Might Not
The simulations are remarkably skeptical.
Despite a 4-1 Morning Line, Smart Sheets projects 29-1 after 1,000 simulations. His 4.6% PAR+ indicates he rarely produces a winning effort at today’s projected speed level, making him one of the biggest underlays in the field.
4 – FOR ALL MANKIND (12-1 ML • 3-1 SIM)
Why He Can Win
If there’s one horse Smart Sheets believes the public may be overlooking, it’s FOR ALL MANKIND.
The Morning Line lists him at 12-1, while our simulations project him closer to 3-1.
That’s one of the strongest value gaps in today’s race.
He also owns the highest C-Zone (88.9%), meaning today’s projected pace closely resembles races where he’s already performed well. Add in a healthy 29.8% PAR+ and the highest projected probability of leading at the first call, and you begin to see why the simulations like him so much.
Why He Might Not
History isn’t entirely on his side.
Post 4 has underperformed at this distance, and he’ll need to convert early speed into sustained speed against Grade I competition.
5 – STRONGHOLD (4-1 ML • 39-1 SIM)
Why He Can Win
STRONGHOLD has enough tactical speed to stay within striking distance early and enters in improving form. His connections continue to excel, and his recent races suggest there’s still upside if he takes another step forward.
Why He Might Not
This is another horse where Smart Sheets sharply disagrees with the betting market.
The simulations push him to 39-1, while his 7.6% PAR+ indicates he rarely reaches the winning speed needed for today’s class.
6 – CORNUCOPIAN (3-1 ML • 4-1 SIM)
Why He Can Win
No horse owns more raw ability than CORNUCOPIAN.
He leads the field in:
- SIM Speed (102.0)
- Late Pace
- Total Pace (192.3)
That Total Pace figure is more than seven points higher than the next-best runner, an enormous gap in a Grade I sprint.
He also owns one of the strongest PAR+ ratings (35%), positive class movement, and outstanding trainer statistics.
If this race is decided by pure talent…
CORNUCOPIAN is the horse to beat.
Why He Might Not
Speed alone doesn’t always win.
Despite leading nearly every major speed category, Smart Sheets still projects him only as the third choice, suggesting race shape and trip introduce enough uncertainty to prevent him from dominating the simulations.
7 – GOLD SWEEP (15-1 ML • 18-1 SIM)
Why He Can Win
GOLD SWEEP has shown enough improvement to suggest there’s still room to move forward. If the projected pace collapses more dramatically than expected, his versatility could allow him to pick up the pieces late.
Why He Might Not
His 16.1% PAR+ trails the better contenders, and he doesn’t possess the elite pace or speed figures necessary to make him a likely winner under today’s projected conditions.
8 – MAD HOUSE (12-1 ML • 7/2 SIM)
Why He Can Win
MAD HOUSE may be today’s most intriguing value play.
The Morning Line says 12-1.
Smart Sheets says 7/2.
He projects as the most likely early leader (33.4%), owns the best Early Pace figure, and benefits from Post 8, one of the strongest historical positions at six furlongs.
He also carries a strong 33.6% PAR+, suggesting he consistently runs fast enough to threaten fields like this one.
If Del Mar’s speed bias continues…
MAD HOUSE becomes extremely dangerous.
Why He Might Not
His Late Pace trails the elite closers, meaning he’ll need to make full use of his early advantage. If another horse pressures him through fast fractions, his biggest strength could disappear.
9 – MOONLIGHT (20-1 ML • 249-1 SIM)
Why He Can Win
MOONLIGHT benefits from another favorable outside draw while showing positive improvement entering today’s race. If the race completely falls apart, he could outperform expectations.
Why He Might Not
Smart Sheets simply doesn’t see enough evidence.
A 249-1 SIM Odds line and 0.0% PAR+ suggest today’s assignment may simply be too ambitious.
The Four Horses That Tell Today’s Story
Most Likely Winner
CORNUCOPIAN
No horse approaches his combination of raw speed and Total Pace.
Most Interesting Value
FOR ALL MANKIND
Morning Line: 12-1
Smart Sheets: 3-1
The biggest positive disagreement between the public and the simulations.
Dangerous Challenger
MAD HOUSE
Speed wins at Del Mar.
No one projects to control the pace more often.
Don’t Ignore
MAXIMUM BOURBON
While the simulations are less enthusiastic than the Morning Line, his tactical versatility and improving profile make him dangerous if the race unfolds differently than expected.
Questions Worth Asking Before You Bet
- Will MAD HOUSE clear the field early, or does someone make him work?
- Can CORNUCOPIAN turn superior speed into victory?
- Is FOR ALL MANKIND today’s biggest betting overlay?
- Will Del Mar’s early-speed profile continue in the Bing Crosby Stakes?
Get All of Today’s Smart Sheets
Bing Crosby Stakes Analytics and Handicapping Data
