Here are my top five three-year-olds. Quick disclaimer, this is facing the triple crown, specifically the Kentucky Derby and not the long-term goals like the Haskell (Gr.1) Travers (Gr.1) Pennsylvania Derby (Gr.1) Awesome Again (Gr.1) Breeders Cup Classic (Gr.1) or even the eclipse awards. I will also keep two-year-old seasons in mind.
Number 5: TAPIT TRICE
In fifth spot on this list is going to be the gray son of Tapit, Tapit Trice. The Todd Pletcher trainee is the type of horse Todd Pletcher knows well as he often finds himself with sons of Tapit who can run all day. Todd Pletcher also campaigned this colt’s damsire, Dunkirk, to place in multiple graded stakes including a runner up in the Florida Derby (Gr.1) and a runner up finish in the test of champions, the Belmont Stakes (Gr.1)
Tapit Trice started his career with a third-place finish at Aqueduct in November going a mile. He sat back early and came closing late, beaten two and a half lengths he then won going a mile by a neck in December, running down Slip Mahoney late to win. He came back and won a second race in a row at Gulfstream Park going a mile again by eight lengths, beating stablemate Shesterkin.
That race was used as a setup for his first stakes test, where last out he kicked in as they came into the final furlong to win the Tampa Bay Derby (Gr.2) in a twelve-horse field he managed to gain his third win in a row by two lengths. Breaking slowly, he dawdled at the back of the pack most of the way with Luis Saez riding him like it was Essential Quality all over again. He slowly moved up on the turn and in the stretch, but he didn’t really get into high gear until the final half of the stretch, lifting to get up.
Expect this colt to show up in either the Florida Derby (Gr.1) the Blue Grass (Gr.1) or travel to New York for the Wood Memorial (Gr.1) as his last prep for the Kentucky Derby. Tapit Trice seems more like a Belmont (Gr.1) horse then a derby horse after showing that he’s well behind his fellow derby contenders, mentally, in the Tampa Bay Derby (Gr.2)
Number 4: REINCARNATE
Ahead of Tapit Trice, and securing the fourth-place spot, is Reincarnate. This Tim Yakteen trainee has one start under Tim Yakteen after being transferred from the Bob Baffert barn in order to be eligible to gain derby points and be nominated for the Kentucky Derby. As of now, he has a record of two wins, three seconds and one third for six on the board efforts in as many races.
He started his career on turf for Bob Baffert with a second-place finish going a mile where he was beaten only a neck. From there, he ran second again going a mile on the turf where he was beaten a length and a half. After two runner up finishes on turf, he switched to dirt but was second again, beaten just under a length by stablemate Fort Bragg.
He broke his maiden fourth time out by three quarters of a length over a mile on the main track and that vaulted him into the Sham (Gr.3) going a mile, he pulled off the upset over his two stablemates, Newgate and National Treasure, who were both miles ahead of Packs A Wahlop and Spun Intended who was pulled up and vanned off. Reincarnate won by a hard fought, stretch dueling, neck over Newgate who came back to win the Robert B. Lewis (Gr.3) and three quarters of a length behind those two was National Treasure, who among his graded stakes placing, was third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (Gr.1)
Reincarnate came back to run in the Rebel (Gr.2) in the slop at Oaklawn and finished a good third. Employing new tactics, he sat well off the lead and looked as though he was going to be a threat when he found room and turned it on in upper stretch, but soon was checked and steadied hard when Red Route One ran down his outside and Bourbon Bash came out in front of him, pinning him between the two and forcing him to check and lose all chance. The impressive part of that was, where most horses would be intimidated and stay at an even pace, or quit and fade down the stretch, Reincarnate got going again and ran on late to finish third. He was finishing arguably fastest of all as he was beaten only two and a half lengths. Confidence Game won by a length, and Red Route One who had been the wall on the outside causing Reincarnate to check and steady, finished second a quickly shortening length and a half ahead of Reincarnate who was three lengths clear of the rest of a strong field including Verifying, Giant Mischief, Gun Pilot, Frosted Departure and Bourbon Bash.
His effort in the Rebel reminded me of Alysheba falling to his knees mid-stretch and coming on again to win the Kentucky Derby. Reincarnate has heart and he’s a gritty horse that can show speed or he can sit just off, or he can do what he did in the Rebel and sit well off the pace and flash a burst of speed down the lane. He’s a real blue collar type horse, an honest workhorse who has a huge heart in his races no matter if he gets stopped mid-stretch or turns for home in front with two horses on his belly, you can always count on him to turn in a good effort and hit the board and you can’t ever count him out to win.
Expect to see Tim Yakteen enter Reincarnate in either the Santa Anita Derby (Gr.1) or go back to Arkansas for the Arkansas Derby (Gr.1) which both offer 100 points to the winner. This son of Good Magic is a threat in all of his races. I think he’ll love a mile and a quarter and will handle the bumping, screaming and traffic of the clubhouse turn in the Kentucky Derby better than most and be able to position himself tactically and come home strong. He’s a smart, gritty, blue-collar horse who I will definitely want in the Kentucky Derby if he runs well in his next race.
Number 3: KINGSBARNS
Now onto the bronze medalist on my list. It’s another Todd Pletcher trainee in Kingsbarns. The powerfully built, highly athletic and sharp minded son of Uncle Mo is unbeaten in two starts. He started his career late, not making his debut until January in which Luis Saez piloted him going a mile. He broke slowly, rushed up, got shut off and ended up mid-pack on the rail taking dirt to the face as he was right on the leader’s heels. Literally. Seeming to stumble once or twice up the backstretch over the leader’s heels, there were a few worrying moments especially when he tried to get outside as they approached the top of the stretch but the horse outside of him swung straight into him, throwing him off balance and back to the inside. Kingsbarns didn’t quit, still taking dirt, and being bullied around he darted through a small gap the second it opened. Found the lead upper stretch and put away the horses that had been in front of him and held off the closers to win geared down.
After a mentally and physically taxing debut which caused quite the stir down in Florida, he next went to an allowance at Tampa Bay Downs going a mile and forty yards. His main opponent however, was his stablemate Cuvier who had won on debut on the same day as Kingsbarns and just a few races earlier on the card. Kingsbarns broke a little slow again and sat in a stalking position early, he took over in the stretch and drew away under a hand ride and a few taps from jockey Antonio Gallardo. He won that by nearly eight lengths, with Cuvier a distant third,
Now, he is entered in the Louisiana Derby (Gr.2) at the Fair Grounds for his toughest challenge yet, including Instant Coffee who looks to keep his winning streak to three after winning the Kentucky Jockey Club (Gr.2) in November and the Lecomte (Gr.3) in late January. Other top-class threats come from Sun Thunder, off of a runner up finish in the Risen Star (Gr.2) in a fourteen-horse field, coming backing Disarm for Steve Asmussen who finished third behind Sanford (Gr.3) winner Mo Strike, and impressive maiden winner Summonyourcourage. Then, Disarm romped for fun at Saratoga in August but couldn’t replicate that effort off of six months rest when getting second at Oaklawn in February to Arkansas Derby candidate Two Eagles River, who can be found in the past performances of many top three-year-olds.
Also in the Louisiana Derby will be Tapit’s Conquest who is multiple graded stakes placed and has an electric turn of foot in the stretch. Kingsbarns is a rising star horse that will now have the chance to prove what he really is. He has a top-class mind, top class athleticism and top connections with Todd Pletcher training and a handful of top jockeys that could ride him. This is a make-or-break moment for him in his first time in a big race.
Number 2: RED ROUTE ONE
The colt to get second on my list is Steve Asmussen trainee Red Route One. Although he only has one win, which was a turf race at Kentucky Downs in September, I think this colt is one of the most talented three-year-olds out there. The thing that plagues Red Route One is his style. On the surface, he’s closer and that is a normal style that works if you get a good pace up front. Not for Red Red One.
He likes to break well and slip back so he’s detached and at least a dozen lengths off the lead and at least three lengths off the nearest horse. Then, on the turn, he winds up a scary turn of foot and weaves through horses or bombs down the middle of the track, only to flatten out in the final sixteenth and finish second or third.
He holds a record of one win, two seconds and one third in seven career races. He started off fifth on debut at Saratoga, and then came back with a win on the turf at Kentucky Downs. He then made his dirt debut in the $500k Claiborne Breeders Futurity (Gr.1) at Keeneland racecourse in October. In a fourteen-horse field, he stormed late to finish third a few lengths off of Loggins and two-year-old champion as well as Hopeful (Gr1) Breeders Futurity (Gr.1) and impressive Breeders Cup Juvenile (Gr.1) winner Forte. In doing so, he defeated two-time graded stakes winner Instant Coffee, Robert B. Lewis (Gr.3) winner Newgate, multiple graded stakes placed and impressive Street Sense (Gr.3) winner Two Phil’s, and a few other notable three-year-olds.
After the Breeders Futurity, the son of Gun Runner tried the slop and was a well beaten fifth to Two Phil’s in the Street Sense, not handling the slop well cost him as he finished mid-pack in the strung-out field. He came back with what was a dazzling display for me, in the Kentucky Jockey Club (Gr.2) and that was again a look-below-the-surface thing for me. Watching the race, he is making his run in the stretch when suddenly he finds himself in the middle of a five or six horse cluster all within two lengths and three lanes of each other. He checked and stopped and got shut off multiple times, before finally finding room about ten strides out where he burst through the gap to run on for fourth. The winner however, Instant Coffee, was clear of all that trouble for an easy win.
Red Route One then came back in the Southwest (Gr.3) at Oaklawn Park in January but slipped back over a dozen lengths off of a slow pace in the river that was Oaklawn on that day. Off of the screen most of the race, he appeared at the three eighths pole and in seemingly two strides was picking up horses as they came to the top of the lane, switching out he stormed home to finish second but couldn’t catch Arabian Knight who won by open lengths after setting a slow pace.
In his last race, he did the same thing and broke well but dropped way out of it on the backstretch only to again come storming home, take a blow from Reincarnate who was forced out into him, and keep running hard only to flatten late and get beat by Confidence Game.
Red Route One needs a more aggressive rider to keep him in it early. He already had a few riders on him like Joel Rosario, Ricardo Santana Jr. and Cristian Torres. He’s a good colt with loads of talent and a lot of athleticism, he just needs to get his mind right and not shut off early like he does.
Number 1: FORTE
First on my list, is the same horse that everybody has first. Forte. The Todd Pletcher trained, Irad Ortiz ridden son of Violence went three for four as a two-year-old with a debut win, but then a disliking to kickback causing him to not get into it until very late, finishing fourth in the Sanford. From there, he romped in the Hopeful (Gr.1) and then got a hard-fought win and survived inquiry in the Breeders Futurity (Gr.1) and then won going away by little more than two lengths in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (Gr.1) in November at Keeneland. He was then training behind closed doors until January, making his way to Gulfstream Park he started working like a monster before winning geared down in the Fountain Of Youth (Gr.2) in March.
Now, Forte is on track for the Florida Derby (Gr.1) and has consistently been the best of his generation. He is still the best three-year-old in my opinion unless someone else takes a big step up. Forte’s only potential problem for the triple crown is his sire, Violence, having struggles with his progeny going the distance but Forte already sports three wins above a mile, and has been finishing well in all of them. Look for him to continue his reign of domination in the Florida Derby (Gr.1) en route to the Kentucky Derby (Gr.1)
These are my top five three-year-olds as we end March.
