Tom’s Breeders’ Cup International Horses Review

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The Breeders’ Cup attracts some of the best racehorses from around the world. Our 22-1 Tom tells what you need to know about all of them.

Friday

Race 5 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint

3 – Tiger Belle

• This horse has yet to run a bad race, and the last one was his best effort so far at ParisLongchamp in Group 3 with a very closely contested race in a quick time of :55.3 over the soft going.
• He has only won races by a neck and nose, and in the other two, he was less than two lengths back.
• All his races were at 5 furlongs, and he raced in Ireland at Cork, Tipperary, & Naas before the last race.
• Interesting choice of Cristian Demuro to ride.
• He’s run on the good and soft going.
• Odds should be attractive to consider this horse.

4 – Big Evs

• He starts his career at Redcar with a win, goes off at 20-1 at Royal Ascot, and wins again.
• Very impressive at Doncaster in the last start and went wire-to-wire fashion.
• He has run both well on good and soft going and performed.
• Toss the Nunthorpe race at York, lead the center group, then backed up. 2yo vs older horses, including Living in the Dream, Highfield Princess, and Bradsell – all group 1 winners.
• Post position is key here, and speed is his game.

5 – Givemethebeatboys

• In his last race, he ran against Group 1 company at Newmarket. He ran second, going up the center of the track, and disputed the lead before giving way. The distance was 6 furlongs, and this was on the good going. This may be the best race of his career in a non-winning effort.
• The race before, also a Group 1 at the Curragh, he ran third by 5 ½ lengths. It was an okay run against one horse who runs here.
• He won his first two races of his career on the good and soft going.
• Drops back in the distance and has always gone off at good odds. Watch for this one to jump up here with a good performance.

6 – Starlust

• The last run was at Newmarket and was one of good early and nothing late, running fifth by five ¾ lengths.
• All his races have been at 6 furlongs, so is the drop back in distance a good thing? Well, he won 3 times and ran second twice.
• His last two races were in group company, with a win in a Group 3 at Kempton on the all-weather.
• I don’t see this horse vs. this group doing much. Pass.

8 – Cherry Blossom

• In her last race, she raced to the center of the track and made the lead but didn’t finish. She ran the top race here over her last and since her maiden win at the Curragh.
• She’s run well on most race conditions, from good to yielding and will be forwardly placed.
• Her first two races were at 5 furlongs, with the maiden being a winning effort. Does cutting distance make sense? This is a yes.
• Ryan Moore to ride.
• She’s by No Nay Never, trained by Wesley Ward, and did well as a 2yo and won at Royal Ascot – Norfolk Stakes. The dam never won, but she has produced winners at distance 1 mile.

10 – Valiant Force

• Do you want a horse who has won at long odds? After two races, he wins both at the Curragh, running second in his first try at 5 furlongs and then a fifth in Group 3 at 6 furlongs.
• He was completely dismissed at Royal Ascot in the Norfolk going off at 150-1, and he won. He ran on the far side that day and drifted slightly but finished well.
• The last out was at Deauville over the soft going; he ran a disappointing fifth by nine ¾ lengths on the soft going.
• Post Position number ten may not be ideal, but the good to firm going may be more likely as it was at Ascot, and having William Buick doesn’t hurt either.

 

Race 7 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Fillies

4 – Laulne

• In her last race at Chantilly, she raced on the good to soft going and lost by a neck in a decent time—top rating off her effort in this race.
• She didn’t have the pace to make much of a challenge at Deauville going 7 furlongs, but you can look past that race because it’s over the heavy going.
• She won three in a row; two were at minor tracks in France, and then a win at Deauville, going 7 furlongs on the soft going.
• She was purchased and transferred to Philip D’Amato, and I am guessing the owners had this race in mind. She has one workout at Santa Anita on October 19, going 4 furlongs on the dirt in :49 – modest, maintenance workout.
• I have to watch and consider this one, with her breeding distance, not an issue and good odds with Manny Franco to ride.

5 – Content

• She has run three times at Leopardstown with a third, win, and second in maiden and a handicap.
• She had a trip to Royal Ascot and showed nothing.
• She tried group company after the first four races with less than good results and a nothing run.
• In her last start, she ran in a Group 3 race at the Curragh at 1 mile with a nice win and a big improvement on her form number.
• It’s an Aiden O’Brian-trained horse, so she must be considered, and maybe distances of 1 mile or more are to her liking. Ryan Moore is to ride.

6 – Porta Fortuna

• She won her first three starts, two in Ireland and then a win at Royal Ascot.
• She ran after that in an open company race at the Curragh, running second and beating a Breeder Cup entry – Givemethebeatboys.
• She made another effort, also at the Curragh; she ran third (dead heat) and was no match for the winner – Fallen Angel (who’s pretty good too).
• Overall, she has always been in money; her last three races are all Group 1.
• Does she have a chance? Yes, and will I add her to my tickets? Definitely.

9 – Carla’s Way

• Her last race was her best, sitting second, very comfortable, and moving forward; she took over at one furling to good and won by three ¼ lengths. This was at 7 furlongs at Newmarket. Read on for some of her more interesting runs previous.
• After winning a class 5 race at Doncaster at the first try, she ran in the Albany at Royal Ascot and ran on the far side, switched to the near side, made up some ground, and hung badly going left. This was at 6 furlongs.
• Took a break and came back in August to run second by two lengths. This was better than Royal Ascot, but it was the same scenario in the race running.
• Good to firm going appears to be what kind of surface she wants.
• Based on the last race, she will continue to improve, and I will consider winning this race. The post position and two turns are going to make it interesting.

14 – Les Pavots

• She has three wins at Vichy, Deauville, and Chantilly on good to soft or heavy going. She’s never been out of the money in six races.
• In her last race, she ran strongly but only got interested in the race’s late stages, running third in a Group 1 at ParisLongchamp at one mile.
• Her last two races have been against her sex, with one win and one third.
• Mickael Barzalona is riding (and has before) but will have his work cut out from post position 14, and her odds will be less than 20-1.

 

Race 8 – FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

7 – Cuban Thunder

• He ran third in his last race on the all-weather at Dundalk by five ¼ lengths and wasn’t that close to the top two horses – Mountain Bear won the race.
• Something went seriously wrong at the race at the Curragh; he was pulled up.
• He ran second in his two maiden races, one at Newmarket and then won at York.
• The sire has had only one-horse run on the dirt, and that horse only won a maiden race. The dam won on the all-weather at 7 furlongs, and this is the first foal.
• If you want to roll the dice and big odds, go for it – For me, Pass.

5 – Ecoro Neo

• He has only raced two times with nothing in the first start on the turf at Nigata in a one ¼ mile race.
• The second start was a race on the dirt track at Hanshin at 6 furlongs, lost by 1/2 of a length running second.
• The Sire is Bernardini, and he has 101 stakes winners on the dirt. The dam has three foals; they all won on the turf, two sprinting and the other in distance races. They paid $300k for this horse as a 2yo at the OBS sale.
• My only recommendation is to check the betting in Japan and see if there is any interest because what I have found doesn’t impress me.

 

Race 9 – Prevagen Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf

2 – River Tiber

• After winning his first three starts, including the Coventry at Royal Ascot, he ran third twice – one at Deauville and the other at Newmarket. He lost to the same horse Verdeek. These races are at 5 furlongs (1 race) and 6 furlongs.
• Now, going out to the 2-turn mile 1/16 distance, let’s look at his breeding. The sire was a champion unbeaten sprinter in France but has sired horses going longer distances, including King of Steel and Chindit.
• Dam never raced; her other foal has tried 8 times to win and failed.
• Aiden O’Brien and I assume Ryan Moore with a horse that has never finished out of the money. You must add him to your ticket for at least an in-the-money chance.

8 – Unquestionable

• In his last race at ParisLongchamp, he ran a strong second to one of the best 2yo’s in France, Rosallion. The Grand Criterium is considered one of the top 2yo races in Europe.
• He won his maiden in a second try at the Curragh and then a neck loss in his next start.
• He ran 4^th at the Curragh in the second to last start and had issues when he hit the stall at the start.
• We get a change of riders from Ryan Moore to Frankie Dettori.
• Right now, in England, he is second in the betting at 4-1 (River Tiber is the favorite), and he will make a good account of himself here. Don’t be surprised if all Aiden O’Brian horses run in the money.

12 – Mountain Bear

• He won his last race at Dundalk on the all-weather at 7 furlongs by one ¾ lengths and was asked to do too much to get the win. This race was a big improvement from the last effort.
• He ran seventh, third, fourth, and fourth in his four previous Group races.
• In this last race, he was running second at the start, but at 2 furlongs marker, he was outpaced and had a chance for a better placing but flattened out with 110 years to go.
• Since he has yet to have group-level race success in winning by being competitive in three of the four races, what do you do with this horse?
• Factor in the Aiden O’Brien angle
• The Post Position isn’t favorable, but he had post position 15 in his last race.

 

Saturday

Race 3 – Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile

7 – Algiers

• In his return to the races, he ran second at Woodbine by ½ a length and lack room. He did a nice job getting up for second.
• Before his layoff, he ran in the Dubai World Cup, running second to the Classic entry, Ushba Tesoro. He was leading with 300m to go.
• His other two starts earlier in the year were in Dubai, and he won.
• He’s raced three times at one mile and won two of those races, and the loss was an eight finish in the Godolphin Mile in Dubai with the winner a Japanese horse Bathrat Leon.
• He certainly can improve second up off his last race and has run against some of the best horses in the world. He could win this race.

 

Race 4 – Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf

2 – Warm Heart

• A head and neck won her the last two races. Both races at the mile half distance. The York race was on the good to firm going.
• The fifth-place finish at the Curragh was her worst effort. She was held in the rear of the field, and at the three-furlong marker, she was asked to go and didn’t. Maybe she didn’t like the soft going that day because she won on the soft-to-heavy going at Leopardstown, but that was a maiden race.
• Her last two races have been her best efforts by the numbers, and I don’t see a reversal in form here. She also won at Royal Ascot.
• She is the second choice in the betting in Britain. If she wins, it won’t be by much and will come flying.
• She is my top choice.

5 – Win Marilyn

• I don’t know what to make of this Japanese runner. She ran an okay race last time despite finishing ninth, beaten by five ¼ lengths, but broke for post position 15.
• Her was before was the first start after a layoff and showed nothing. So the last race was better.
• Her first start of the season was in Dubai, running against Equinox, and well, no horse has been this horse lately.
• The last win was in the Vase at Shi Tin in December.
• She will be held in the rear of the field and make one run. Has this race been the goal all along? Odds will be good.

6 – Inspiral

• The last time she ran was at Newmarket in a fillies and mares race at one mile and won by three ¼ lengths. She hadn’t run against her own sex since July 2022.
• The five races have been against the males (with an occasional female running, too), and she has a record of three wins, one second, one fifth, and one sixth.
• She won over 2.5 million dollars, but her races have been at one mile only. Now, she tries one ¼ miles and two turns.
• You know that John Gosden has been training her around the left-handed turns, and he scratched her for this race vs. running on British Champions Day in open company. The track conditions weren’t great (she won’t have beaten Big Rock).
• Frankie Dettori will be on board and knows his way around Santa Anita.
• You must seriously consider her vs. this group of horses because even with the distance change, she is top class, especially against her own sex. One of my favorites.

11 – Lumiere Rock

• She ran third last out at ParisLongchamp, losing to Blue Rose Cen by one ¼ lengths.
• She won at the Curragh by three lengths over Jackie Oh. In both these races, she ran toward the front of the race.
• She’s lost to Warm Heart at Royal Ascot, running second.
• She should be the pacesetter in this race, and I don’t know if she has enough to beat this group with post position 11.

12 – State Occasion

• Her last race was at the mile ¼ distance at ParisLongchamp, and she ran fifth by two lengths. Interestingly, she ran the best race since the Salisbury race in August, which was a win.
• Over the past two years, her races are at the mile ¼ distance or longer, with wins at the handicap level at York and Goodwood.
• She has yet to win a group-level race.
• Distance isn’t the issue, and the last race in the Opera in Group 1 was a good effort, but will she maintain or drop off vs. these horses? I think she will, and I will take a pass on her.

I left With the Moonlight off my list of foreign horses because she’s run many times in North America and has proved to be a very good horse for Charlie Appleby.

 

Race 5 – PNC Bank Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint

6 – Meikel Yell

• Always running against the top company, she hadn’t faired too well in the last many races, with her last win in September 2022.
• In her last race, she ran fifth by two lengths and ran on well at the end, suggesting improvement and her best rating in a while.
• She ran in a one-mile race in Tokyo, and it was a poor effort and too far for her. The winner was Songline.
• She’s won over 2.6 million dollars in her career but is also an all-or-nothing horse, meaning she wins or does nothing. 17 starts and seven wins.
• If you’re going to play her, play her to win. I am playing her to do nothing.

 

Race 6 – FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Turf Mile

4 – Win Carnelian

• Her last race was at the distance of mile 1/8, and she is a miler; this was not suited for her, and she ran fifth behind 13-plus lengths. Toss.
• In her earlier race, she went off at 54-1 at one mile, went to the lead, and, when headed, faded to run eighth with Songline winning the race.
• Her numbers suggest she has been running the same kind of races in her last four races. This includes a run in Dubai.
• She will be on or near the lead; there is plenty in the race to push her, and she will fade again.

6 – Mawj

• After a good winter in Dubai, leaving there with wins, she ran in the 1000 Guineas and won by racing in the center of the course, merged with the other group, drifted a bit, but kept on and won with authority. She was 10-1 that day.
• They shipped her to Keeneland for her next start, and she won going wire-to-wire; the challengers were coming, but she held and out-finished them all.
• This will be her first race in open company, but the distance is spot on for her.
• Her dam, Modern Ideals, also foaled two-time winner Modern Games. This race runs in the family.
• Is she good enough? We will find out.

10 – Songline

• She has done a bit better after a terrible race in Saudi Arabia and made it at a distance that doesn’t suit her.
• Her next two starts were at one mile at Tokyo, and she won by a head and then by one ¼ lengths. Was the jockey switch the difference?
• They then ran here in the last race at one 1/8 at Tokyo, and she ran a good second by a nose.
• This distance of one mile is her distance, and this two-turn race will suit her in how she finishes.
• She is my top choice in this race.

11 – Kelina

• She won last time at ParisLongchamp, running 7 furlongs on the good to soft going. She beat last year’s race winner, Kinross, at 27-1.
• Her efforts on the firm going have been all winning efforts, so that has to be one very good reason to send her to Santa Anita.
• One mile is not best suited for her at this level because she won at this distance at Chantilly in a Group 2 race over Sauterne but has some really bad losses in the Group 1 level in both open and fillies only races.
• Last out was her first Group 1 win, and I think it’s a bit of a reach for her in this race, even with the firm going.
• She will likely not be able to handle this group and will finish mid-pack.

14 – Masters of the Game

• His last three races have been at one mile, and two wins and one second have been strong efforts.
• Last out, he was not Up To The Mark to win over this horse. Lost by a nose is the favorite.
• He won at Ascot and beat the Epsom Derby winner Aldaary, then shipped to Woodbine for another Charlie Appleby win over Shirl’s Speight.
• To win this race, William Buick and this horse must pull an “Order of Australia” from the outside post position. The jockey is up for it, but is the horse?

 

Race 8 – Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf

1 – Shahuyar

• This horse hasn’t raced since August that wasn’t much of a run at Sapporo. He ran 11^{th; he} was never a factor.
• In Dubai, he was never really in the race and ran mid-division all the way around the course, but then again, the winner was Equinox.
• His last win was in Dubai in 2022 over Yibir.
• He will be forwardly placed in this race and win off layoffs, but I wonder if he will be at his best here. If I am wrong, he will pay well. He will have to perform a Japan Cup-type performance to have a chance.

2 – Onesto

• He ran a third in the ARC last time out, but no one was going to beat the best 3yo in Europe in Ace Impact, who is undefeated and now retired.
• His last win was at ParisLongchamp in July of 2022.
• He’s run average races all year, and the last was better, finishing well, but there is nothing to suggest he can win here. The last race was the best numbers run of his year.
• This is his last career race, and I don’t see him doing much of anything in this race. It’s a big price if he pulls it off.

4 – Bolshoi Ballet

• It had been a while since he won, and it may be a forwardly placed run. He battled in the middle of the race and won at Saratoga by four ¼ lengths on the yielding conditions.
• His races before were, at best, average, with the best finish being a second at Ascot.
• But he has only been out of the money in one race this year, at Ascot, and went off at over 100-1 odds. He ran sixth.
• Is he in this race to be the rabbit for another Aidan O’Brien horse or could he steal the race on the front end? Rabbit.

5 – Auguste Rodin

• He won last at Leopardstown on Irish Champions Day, beating some good horses in Luxembourg and Nashwa.
• But when he runs a bad race, it is bad, and that was the case in his second to last start at Ascot being eased up when he didn’t run at all in the race. Two of those horses went on to run in the ARC, and one won on champion day.
• He’s beaten some of these horses and then run some unexplained races.
• He’s the favorite right now in Britain at short odds. For me, I am going to take a pass on him.

7 – Broome

• What’s not to like about this old war horse? He has a record of 38 starts, nine wins, 6 seconds, and three thirds. He has been running in longer distance races lately (2 miles plus) after his success in Dubai. The overall results have been average or awful.
• He hasn’t done well in the past at this distance, and I can’t see him doing much better here. This is a good group of turf runners, and he would have to have a huge form reversal to have any chance today.

10 – Mostshdaf

• This horse was scratched from British Champion Day to run in this race because of track conditions. This was the target because this horse has done his best running on the firm going.
• He won his last two races, including a big win at Royal Ascot at 10-1.
• In his last race, he went to the front and kept on strongly to the end, beating Paddington and Nashwa.
• His only loss this season was in Dubai, where he ran with the top horse for a bit and then finished fourth. So, his only loss was to the best turf horse in the world, Equinox. Westover and Zagrey finished before him, but he battled with the top until the top of the stretch.
• He is my top choice of the day and my best bet to win.

11 – King of Steel

• He was a winner last time out on an awful Ascot track, and he won against bias because front runners won all the other races, and he came from the back of the field to win.
• He ran fourth to August Rodin at Leopardstown, lost by one length.
• A third to Hukum and Westover at Ascot was overall a good race.
• A strong second in the Epsom Derby to August Rodin at 66-1 was followed up by a win next out at Ascot.

• The last race was very impressive, so he is here. I don’t know what that race took from him if anything, but could he do it again?
• Frankie Dettori has the mount again after last time, and let’s see what he can do from the outside post position. He has won from post position ten but at a lesser track.

 

Race 9 – Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic

5 – Derma Sotogake

• He hasn’t run since the Kentucky Derby, where he ran sixth. He did have some issues in that race, brushing the gate.
• Before that race, he won in Dubai and was a complete mess in Saudi Arabia, never in the race.
• After he won his maiden, he won two more races on the dirt and Hashin and Kawasaki by close margins.
• He shipped and has been working at Santa Anita, but no official workouts have been posted.
• I bet him in Dubai, but here I really don’t know if working up to this race in the best way to go.

8 – Ushba Tesoro

• This horse started his career on the turf with okay results. Moving him to the dirt, he’s lost one race in eight and won the Dubai World Cup. His lone blemish is coming off a five-month layoff on a sloppy track.
• His last race was a nice two ½ length win, and the comment line was “very easily.”
• Distance isn’t an issue; it’s a fast track, and I strongly believe he is the one to beat.
• My top choice.

 

Race 10 – Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint

2 – Bradsell

• This horse has run some very nice races, but he loves Ascot. Three starts, 2 wins; he ran third the other time.
• A weak effort last out at the Curragh, running third. He raced in the front and weakened late badly.
• In the Nunthorpe at York, he tried and ran good enough for third, but no one was catching the winner that day.
• If this were Ascot, he would be my top choice, and he gets a change of riders because of the suspension of Holly Doyle.
• He would have to make a huge effort to have any chance here.

6 – Live In The Dream

• Here is the speed of the speed, and he ran an unbelievable race in the Nunthorpe.
• He made all, and the splits were incredible. This was at 5 furlongs.
• His last race was at 5 ½ furlongs, which may have been the difference in winning the race speed again, but that extra half furlong was the difference in winning or losing, and he ran fourth.
• He wants firm ground. He will get the lead. The factions will be fast. He’s got the post position to get the lead. The trainer believes a turn is better for him. If he gets his way up front, he wins.

8 – Aesop’s Fables

• He’s showing more and more with each race this season, and the last may have been his best so far because the numbers reflect a big improvement over the second to last race.
• He went off at 43-1 and ran third by one length to Highfield Princess on the good to soft going.
• His other races have been a mixed bag of terrible to okay. The Nunthorpe was a mess, and his race was over after the first furlong.
• His last win was at the Curragh, traveling 7 furlongs in August 2022.
• He’s only won twice in his 11-race career, but he is a 3yo, so maybe better things to come, not in this race.

11 – Jasper Krone

• The last race was a fourth by two lengths, and ran well at the end.
• The two previous races were winning efforts, with one in the lead. Times for 6 furlongs was quick at 1:07.1.
• His last effort at 5 furlongs was in May of this year; he won, and the comment was that he made a good run for the win, which was on the soft going.
• Will the jockey switch will be okay? The jockey will have to do some work from the post position, and he may want the lead, but he won’t get it.
• In the last four races, he’s gone off at double-digit odds. Today?