Turfway Park Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free Turfway Park Racing Picks
Turfway Park – 12-04-2024
Race 1
3 – Livehappy – He drops in class today, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 20% of the starts when dropping a horse down 2+ classes.
7 – Westeros – He has a high % winning trainer and has a good 4F workout on Nov-13.
5 – Goldentown – The shorter distance offers hope for improvement and he has a good 4F workout on Nov-27.
Longshot:
1 – Fly J’s Funtastic – He drops in class today and he has a trainer who wins 33% of the starts when taking a horse from a maiden race to a maiden claiming race.
Alternate:
13 – Timetomakemischief
14 – Harbour Bridge
Race 2
8 – Tiverton – He finished 2nd vs tougher (on Turf) in his last race, he has highest speed figure at today’s distance and a bullet 4F workout on Nov-27.
3 – Mr. Faversham – He drops in class today, has the highest last race speed rating (tie) he has a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the starts when dropping a horse down 2+ classes.
2 – Confucius – He drops in class today, he has a trainer who wins 26% of the claiming races he has a horse competing in and he has a good 5F workout on Nov-22.
Longshot:
1 – Gone Again – He has finished in the money in his last three starts, winning the lasts race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
13 – Egyptian King
14 – El Peligro
$.50 Pick 4: 1,2,3,8/4,7,9/1,3,8,11/2,6 – Cost $48.00
Race 3 -Female
9 – Anaita– She has won five races out of her last seven starts, drops in class today, she has the best speed figure at today’s distance and she has a high % winning trainer who wins 23% of the races when shipping a horse in to run.
4 – Save the Bees – She has finished in the money in five races out of his last six starts, winning three races and has a high % winning jockey.
7 – Beach Kitten – She has finished in the money in nine races out of his last ten starts, winning three races and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Tizzy Jojo – She finished 3rd (on Dirt) in her last race, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and she has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
3 – Protomagic
2 – Anotation
Race 4
1 – Reapply – He has won two races out of the last three starts and he has a high % winning trainer.
11 – Chantry Flats – He finished 2nd in his last race, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 18% of the claiming races he has horses running in and his best AW speed is fastest among today’s starters.
8 – Gullane – He finished 2nd in his last race, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 57% of the races when taking a horse up 2+ classes.
Longshot:
3 – Ghost Bike – He ran 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
12 – Kygo
13 – Some R Blessed
Race 5 -Female
2 – Bembridge Ledge – She has a high % winning trainer and jockey and she has a good 4F workout on Nov-23.
6 – Mo Pics Please – She has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Cocktail Kisses – She drops in class today and he has a trainer who wins 25% of the starts when taking a horse from dirt to AW surface.
Longshot:
7 – Taqdeer – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 2 winners from 4 starters and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey
Alternate:
13 – Talent Show
14 – Golden Sunshine
Race 6 -Female
7 – Ardis – She finished 3rd in her last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 27% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and she can improve at the shorter distance.
5 – O’Babe – She won her last race and she has a high % winning jockey.
8 – Abitibi – She drops in class today, her best AW speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and she has a trainer who wins 23% of the races when taking a horse down 2+ classes.
Longshot:
1 – Yolo Calls – She finished 3rd in her last race, trainer who wins 20% of the races in the 2nd race after claiming a horse and her highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Alternate:
3 – Docs Seven
6 – Ms Temptation
$.50 Pick 4: #1,3,5,7,8/1,2,3,4,6/2,3 /6,8 – Cost $50.00
Race 7
2 – Oscargot – He finished 3rd vs tougher (on Turf) in his last race, drops in class today and he has a high % winning jockey.
6 – Alpha Omega – He took a 4-month break and comes in from Delmar, he has a high % winning trainer and jockey, he has several good workouts in preparation to return to the races and blinkers added today.
3 – Golden Symphony – He finished 2nd in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Royal Court– He has finished in the money in five races out of his last six starts, the rail post is winning at a 24% clip and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 20% of the races when taking a horse from a maiden claiming race to a to maiden race.
Alternate:
4 – Hope Joe’s Right
14 – Elko County
Race 8 -Female
2 – Forgotten Peace – She has finished in the money in his last six starts, winning five races running 2nd in her last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 27% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again.
3 – Kiki Krazy – She has an early foot so the shorter distance should help and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Always Wanting – She is having a good year finishing in the money in 60% of the races, winning 20% of the starts, the shorter distance can help and she has a good 4F workout on Nov-26.
Longshot:
5 – Just for Fun – She came in from Delmar and won her first start at Horseshoe Indianapolis and has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
4 – Polka Polenta
11 – Normanjito
Bet: $24.00 Win & $30.00 Place: #2 – $2.00 Exacta Box: #2,3,5,7 – $4.00 Exacta: 2/3,7 – $5.00 DD: 2/6,8
Race 9 -Female
6 – Trotter – She has finished in the money in four out of the six career starts, winning one of the races and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
8 – Camp Akeela – She drops in class today, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 29% of the starts when dropping a horse down 2+ classes and she has a high % winning jockey.
9 – Ain’t No Other – She won her last race and she has a high % winning trainer who wins 50% of the starts when taking a horse from the Turf to an AW surface and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Donate Life – She drops in class today, she has a high % winning trainer and a good 5F workout on Nov-22.
Alternate:
2 – Beautiful Summer
13 – Smart With Heart
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 8th Race – #2 – Forgotten Peace
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 35% w2w – PP: Rail Bias, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Fair
13 – TIMETOMAKEMISCHIEF (AE) – TLRSP#+11 after more than a year off – 2nd up could be better but first on AW
3 – LIVEHAPPY – ran some of his best races in first ups – like today – Top TOTAL PACE +5
14 – HARBOUR BRIDGE (AE) – only horse with AW experience – run back to PID on AUG 26 wins?
5 – GOLDENTOWN – tough call over the 10, but turf runs hint at decent AW ability
10 – SNOW KING –
6 – CIAO TOMMASO
Race 2: 1 Mile – Bias: Stalkers, 25% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Best, 4+ Increasing Discount
3 – MR. FAVERSHAM – 3 SP# increases in a row before heading to the bench – best on AW
8 – TIVERTON – most back class, on turf – did have a run on Irish AW – not so good but been facing better – lowest level of career
13 – EGYPTIAN KING (AE) – will be closing and has some solid enough races at TWY
2 – CONFUCIUS – comes in from the west coast – decent works at TWY prepping
12 – CROWN ROYAL KID
Race 3: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 25% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair
9 – ANAITA – Top TOTAL PACE +5 and TLRSP#+5 – consistent performer with TWY success 5/2-1-1
3 – PROTOMAGIC – 3rd up with a TWY record on 13/5-5-0, just 3 wins in 29 on any other surface or track
4 – SAVE THE BEES – fairly consistent performer that should be forward and won 2/3 at the distance
7 – BEACH KITTEN – better fractions last out and should be better in 2nd up – loves 6f 14/4-4-3
1 – TIZZY JOJO
5 – STORM CHARGING
Race 4: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Stalkers, 27% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Best, 4-7 Fair, 8+ Discount
13 – SOME R BLESSED (AE) – TRLSP#+5 – decent TWY works getting ready for first since late September – LONE EP
11 – CHANTRY FLATS -horse for the course 7/4-1-0 – just 4 wins in 25 races anywhere else
1 – REAPPLY – never off the board a TWY in 4, strong on AW, distance works too
7 – CAN’T HIDE FROM ME – let’s take a flyer here – won 12/36 on AW – been off 21 months -Oct 31 work of 4f in 47.1 at Indy hint the old man might be ready to return to work
8 – GULLANE
9 – PERFECT PAINTING
Race 5: 1 Mile – Bias: Stalkers, 25% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Best, 4+ Increasing Discount
14 – GOLDEN SUNSHINE (AE) – walking up the speed ladder – strong closer and has a par race
2 – BEMBRIDGE LEDGE – another with a Par race – strong work between races
13 – TALENT SHOW (AE) – numbe s say this Brad Cox trainee is the top 1ster by a decent margin
7 – TAQDEER – strong, solid works pattern for another making her debut
6 – MO PICS PLEASE –
8 – PEDIATRIC PRINCESS
Race 6: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 35% w2w – PP: Rail Bias, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Fair
5 – O’BABE – TLRSP# +7 – should be out front – has some experience at TWY 6/2-1-0 – consistent
8 – ABITIBI – probably better in 2nd up – weight break and has run her best on AW
3 – DOCS SEVEN – just missed last out – much better 2/4f pace and fractions
7 – ARDIS – SIM FAV – top PAR+ in 3rd up
2 – QUARTERFLASH
1 – YOLO CALLS
Race 7: 1 ¼ Miles – Bias: 13 Races – Closers, 0 w2w – PP: Big Inside Out
3 – GOLDEN SYMPHONY – only horse with a PAR race – Better ATB and fractions last out
9 – AMBITION – maybe most upside in only 3rd start and 2nd up
14 – ELKO COUNTY (AE) – wanted to rank higher, but outside post really hurt chances
6 – ALPHA OMEGA – comes in from west coast – rerun to debut and she has excellent chance
4 – HOPE JOE’S RIGHT
2 – OSCARGOT
Race 8: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 35% w2w – PP: Rail Bias, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Fair
2 – FORGOTTEN PEACE – TLRSP# +4 – all races on AW and drops to a level where she won 2/3
14 – SWEET GAL OF MINE (AE) – been facing tougher – strong works for first up after a short rest
4 – POLKA POLENTA – plenty of ES and AW is best surface
5 – JUST FOR FUN – Mike Smith rode in debut – off more than a year after that – easy win in return on NOV 12 – solid maintenance work since for $500,000 horse
12 – DOT
10 – JE SUIS RAPIDE
Race 9: 5 Furlongs – Bias: 5 races, Early Speed, 2 w2w – PP: All from 4-7
6 – TROTTER – drops off the claim – Tr Larry Rivelli will send and 31% with the move
7 – ITALIAN IVY – some of her best works prepping for first since July
3 – DONATE LIFE – Lone AW run was a solid second and ran versus tougher
8 – CAMP AKEELA – boom or bust race in 2nd up after more than a year off and ran versus the best comp by far
2 – BEAUTIFUL SUMMER
13 – SMART WITH HEART
