Turfway Park Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free Turfway Park Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Turfway Park – 12-11-2024
Race 1 -Female
9 – Jane Payne – She did not seem to take to the mud in her debut race, drops in class today, and she has a high % winning trainer who wins 31% of the races when taking a horse from a maiden claiming race to a to maiden race.
4 – Melittlefrostgirl – She drops in class today and she has the highest last race speed rating.
3 – Scary Proposition – She drops in class today, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 26% of the starts when dropping a horse down 2+ classes and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
7 – Catalog Queen – She drops in class today, she has a high % winning trainer and a bullet 4F workout on Nov-27.
Alternate:
8 – Berries and Cream
2 – Carmel Rose
Race 2
10 – Acacio – He won his last race, he has a high % winning trainer and a bullet 5F workout on Nov-30.
4 – Steel Link – He won his last race, has the highest last race speed rating and he has a high % winning trainer.
12 – El Peligro – He has finished in the money in two races out of his last three starts, winning one races and drops in class today.
Longshot:
11 – Bekhamboy – He won his last race.
Alternate:
2 – Stunnem
8 – Fore Flag
$.50 Pick 4: 2,4,10,11,12/1,6,11/9,10/4,7,8 – Cost $45.00
Race 3 -Female
2 – Yo Leven – She ran 2nd in her last race, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 28% of the races in the 1st race after claiming a horse she has a high % winning jockey.
11 – Air Force Thunder – She finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer who wins 20% of the starts in the 2nd race after claiming a horse.
6 – Mischief Lily – She has finished in the money in six races out of his last seven starts, drops in class today and she has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
4 – My Lily Mae – She drops in class today, her best AW speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Elle’s Dancer
Race 4
10 – Crosstown Shootout – He won his last race, he highest last race speed rating and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
9 – Love the Nest – He drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 33% of the starts when dropping a horse down 2+ classes.
1 – Buzzer– He has won two races out of the last three races, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 50% of the races with a horse who has been 46-90 days away and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
8 – Rogue Element – He has won two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick and he has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
2 – Domhnall
Bet: $25.00 Win & $30.00 Place: #10 – $2.00 Exacta Box: #1,8,9,10 – $3.00 Exacta: 10/1,8,9 – $4.00 DD: 10/4,7,8
Race 5 -Female
4 – Chris’s Kitty – She finished 2nd in her debut race and she has a high % winning trainer.
7 – Cosmic Wonder – She is a first-time starter whose breeding suits today’s sprint distance and has a high % winning trainer.
8 – Waitingforthelight – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 3 winners from 3 starters and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
9 – Pepper Girl – She drops in class today, has a high % winning trainer who wins 26% of the sprint races he has a horse competing in and she has a high % winning jockey.
Race 6 -Female
12 – Rose Rita – She has won two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 24% of the races in the 1st race after claiming a horse and she has a high % winning jockey.
4 – Cruz Chica – She won her last race.
6 – Cookin the Books – She won her last race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
8 – Run Camila Run – She drops in class today and she has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
$.50 Pick 4: #4,6,8/6,7/8,10,11,13 /5,8,9,11 – Cost $48.00
Race 7
7 – Gold Franc – He won his last race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Baie Longue – He drops in class today, has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 37% of the races when using 1st time blinkers.
4 – Don’t Stop – He finished 2nd in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
11 – Breakout Star– He ran 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in his last race and her best AW speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
10 – Glyne Beach
5 – Fear and Loathing
Race 8 -Female
11 – Best Seller – She has finished in the money in three races out of his last four starts, winning two of the races and she has a high % winning trainer.
10 – Youknownothing – She ran 2nd vs similar (on Turf) in her last race, her best AW speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
8 – Gold Lightning – She has finished in the money in three races out of his last five starts and she has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
13 – Irish Patsy – She was beaten only 1-3/4 lengths vs similar (on Turf) in her last start, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 24% of the races when taking a horse from Turf to an AW surface and she has a high % winning jockey.
Race 9
9 – Photo Op – He has a high % winning jockey, he has the highest last race speed rating, drops in class today and his best AW speed is fastest among today’s starters.
11 – Third Degree – He ran 2nd vs tougher (on Turf) in his last race, drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer.
5 – Grand Illusion – He drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 36% of the starts when dropping a horse down 2+ classes.
Longshot:
8 – Full Dress Blues – He finished 3rd vs similar (on Turf) in his last race and he has a high % winning training and jockey.
Alternate:
12 – Ramesses
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 4th Race – #10 – Crosstown Shootout
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 25% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair, 2/3 A Little Discount
4 – MELITTLEFROSTGIRL – only horse with a PAR race and TLRSP#+8 -chance to be better in 2nd up
10 – ADD MORE LIPSTICK – first time starter with a bullet and go work – 4f in 47 breezing – that’s fast
7 – CATALOG QUEEN -can’t mis that Turfway Park workout – 4f in 46.4 – that’s even faster
9 – JANE PAYNE – MSW dropper – speed and fade in debut – more stamina today
Race 2: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 25% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair, 2/3 A Little Discount
4 – STEEL LINK – plenty of good works prepping to come off the sidelines
2 – STUNNEM – best races on AW and drops in class
10 – ACACIO – 3SP# increases – better EP in last – cut back in distance could help
8 – FORE FLAG – 3rd up, running at the lowest level in last 10, some of the most back class
Race 3: 1 Mile – Bias: Closers, 25% w2w – PP: Inside Out
2 – YO LEVEN – 2nd by a nose last out – looks like a rise in class – but not really – only a 1 point speed difference
4 – MY LILY MAE – AW is the right surface 8/0-3-3 – TWY 6/0-2-3 – purse MSW dropper
6 – MISCHIEF LILY –
5 – ELLE’S DANCER
Race 4: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 35% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Fair
10 – CROSSTOWN SHOOTOUT – loves AW – resume says 2nd up will look like first and first was TLRSP#
6 – SEMINOLE BEACH – biggest class dropper – consistent performer – most LS and should not be too far from the lead
1 – BUZZER – coming off the bench with a pair of decent works prepping
7 – JURA
Race 5: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 25% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair, 2/3 A Little Discount
1 – M’LADY SANSA – Nov 5 and 12 works -4f in 47.1 and 47.2 are – fast
7 – COSMIC WONDER – Brad Cox horse with a back bullet of 4F in 46.3 – that’s really fast
11 – ASHWAAG – top rated first timer with 2.9 of 3 points
13 – PEANUT’S LIL LADY – First timer with a back bullet – 4F in 47.2
Race 6: 1 Mile – Bias: Closers, 25% w2w – PP: Inside Out
8 – RUN CAMILA RUN – after the scratches – only horse in the race with a PAR race on the recent resume
11 – BISA – highly consistent performer – better pace middle out in last – maybe a touch quicker fractions
5 – CAMPAIGN PROMISES – could take her game up in 2nd up and has one of her best published works between races
10 – POUNDS IN TOWN – much faster early fractions in last
Race 7: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 35% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Fair
7 – GOLD FRANC – should be involved from the start and has run well in first ups like today
6 – BAIE LONGUE – CV says 2nd up could be better by a little or a lot
1 – GUN SHOW – should be forward – trying AW for the 1st time – NOV 27 TWY 4f work of 47.1 says he just might like it
11 – BREAKOUT STAR – two of his 3 races at TWY would do
Race 8: 1 ¼ Miles – Bias: Closers, 0 w2w – PP: Strong Inside Out
8 – GOLD LIGHTNING – highly consistent performer with 3SP# increases
13 – IRISH PATSY – definitely facing better in Cali – first AW is the ? – but turf record says it should be OK – most LS
10 – YOUKNOWNOTHING – run back to lone TWY race – 300K NGSTK – is a winner
5 – ABEYANCE – maybe most hidden talent in the race – thought enough of her to run her in a G2 – and you know Godolphin horses can be high quality
Race 9: 1 Mile – Bias: Closers, 25% w2w – PP: Inside Out
9 – PHOTO OP – TLRSP# +3 – should be same or better in 2nd up
12 – RAMESSES – is the best – Nacho Libre reference there – tr Karyn Wittek fires with horse making the first start for her a 42% and 3/8 when dropping multiple classes – aside for the 9 – only other with a PAR race
11 – THIRD DEGREE – will be closing and should be fit with 3 works between races
5 – GRAND ILLUSION – maybe the most upside potential in the race with just 2 starts
