Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Gulfstream Park Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Charles Town
Gulfstream Park Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
5 – Poetic Code– Finished in the money in the last three races, running 3rd in his last race earning the highest last race speed rating – Best AW speed is fastest among today’s starters and the trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (7 2-4-1).
8 – Mekano – Should improve at the shorter distance and Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (13 4-1-0).
4 – No Man Left Behind – First time starter – The trainer wins 28% of the races when his entry runs in a maiden claiming race – The jockey in the last 7days has this record (38 11-6-6) – He has a good 4F workout on 19Mar Pmm 4f ft :48ª B 31/104.
1 – Stolen Money – Away slow in his maiden race and finished a disappointing 11th – Drops in class and switches to a high % winning jockey – Lasix & Blinkers are being added for today’s race – He has a good 3F workout on 19Mar Pmm 3f ft :36.3 B 9/47.
Alternate:
7 – Stannis
6 – Tapaterm
Race 2
4 – Queen Calypso – Won two races in a row going for a hat trick – He has a high % winning jockey, and the trainer wins 20% of the time when bringing the winner of their last race back to race – The jockey in the last 7days has this record (30 8-6-7).
3 – Pino in a Purse – She has a high % winning trainer, and the trainer wins 29% of the races when his entry goes from dirt to AW – The jockey in the last 7days has this record (38 11-6-6).
1 – Simplify – Ran 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in her last race – She likes to go to the lead but has been running out of gas and may benefit at the shorter distance.
6 – Follow Me Mom – Finished 3rd (on Turf) in her last race – She has the highest last race speed rating, and her best AW speed is fastest among today’s starters – The trainer wins 25% of the races in the 1st race after claiming a horse.
Alternate:
5 – Choose to Be Happy
2 – Playera
Race 3
8 – Mia Camila – Ran 2nd vs similar (on AW) in last race and the breeding suggests she will like the grass – The trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (6 4-1-0).
1 – Ambar – Ran 3rd in her last race after experiencing traffic during the race – The Dam has 2 winners from 3 starters and 2 Turf winners – Her trainer wins 25% of the races when his entry goes from AW to Turf.
4 – Hardspun Woman – She has high % winning jockey Tyler Gaffalione and the trainer in the last 14 days has this record (12 5-2-2).
3 – Kelsey’s Shot – Switches to a high % winning jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. – Drops in class today – Lasix is added and the jockey in the last 7days has this record (38 11-6-6).
Alternate:
5 – Z First
6 – Proton Pack
Race 4
7 – Miss California – She won her debut race at Gulfstream Park, was heavily bet in debut and earned the highest last race speed – The trainer wins 30% of the races in the 1st race after claiming a horse.
6 – Sneaky Cheeky – Finished in the money in two of the last three races, running 4th in the last race after experiencing into traffic – She switches to a high % winning trainer and has Chantal Sutherland is in the irons – Should improve while returning to a route – Lasix is added.
1 – Cagua – Won last at Gulfstream Park on All Weather surface – The trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (7 2-4-1).
5 – Cindy’s Song – She has a High % winning Jockey – The trainer wins 27% of the races when he uses 2nd time Lasix – Her best AW speed is fastest among today’s starters – Trainer in the last 14 days has this record (6 3-1-0).
Alternate:
8 – Susans Novela
Race 5
6 – I’m Baffled – She is a first – time starter but very well bred – The Dam has 3 winners from 4 starters and 3 stakes winners – The trainer in the last 14 days has this record (6 3-1-0).
3 – Missy Greer – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race, she has a high % winning trainer and Jockey – She has the highest last race speed rating Jockey in the last 7days has this record (23 8-2-3).
8 – Friendship Road – Should improve while returning to Dirt – trainer wins 23% of the races when using 2nd time Lasix – Blinkers added today – The Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (38 11-6-6) – Good 4F workout (Mar-14).
5 – Rum Swizzle – Should improve at the longer distance – The Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (30 8-6-7).
Alternate:
1 – Rita Marga
7 – Oaxaca
Race 6
5 – Drillomatic – Chantal Sutherland has ridden this horse twice finishing 2nd and then winning the last race so she knows how to ride Drillomatic – He earned the highest last race speed rating (tie) and has a decent workout on 13Mar Pmm ˜ (d) 4f fm :51 B 21/45.
6 – Magical Marriage – He came into town and promptly won his first race at Gulfstream Park and received the highest last race speed rating (tie).
8 – Astroturf – Finished in the money in the last five races, winning two and running 2nd in the last race – He has the highest last race speed rating (tie).
4 – Exchange Day – Has a lot of early speed but runs out of gas so he should improve at the shorter distance- The trainer wins 25% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again.
Alternate:
10 – Super Design
2 – Dominate Themoment
Race 7
2 – Smarmy – Finished in the money in all six of her career races, running 3rd in the last race after being shuffled back during the race – She has a high % winning Jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (23 8-2-3).
4 – Battle Cry – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
5 – Our Fantasy – She has a high % winning trainer and should improve while returning to a route – She has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
1 – Celestial Cheetah – The trainer wins 19% of the races when running a horse in an Allowance race – Jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (38 11-6-6).
Alternate:
3 – Heiressindy
6 – Raspberry Ballet
Race 8
10 – Sinfulicious – Finished 3rd vs similar in her only start and trainer wins 18% in a horse’s 2nd career race – The jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (13 4-1-0).
6 – Chica Boom was only beaten 1-1/4 lengths vs similar in her last start and her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) – The jockey in the last 7 days has this record (38 11-6-6).
7 – Tiz Impressive – She has a high % winning trainer and may improve while trying grass- Dam has 3 winners from 4 starters and 1 Turf winner – Drops in class today and the trainer wins 23% of the races 1st time running a horse in a maiden claiming race.
11 –Temperamental – The trainer wins 27% of the races in Maiden Claiming races – Jockey in the last 7days has this record (23 8-2-3)
Alternate:
9 – Princess Tereska
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 1 Mile 70 yards AW – 110 Races, 58 won off the pace, 9 w2w -PP: Slight rail bias, 2-7>8+ by a little
The pace setup is shaped like a barbell with three speed horses on one end, four closers on the other and one in between connecting the two. A stalker with late kick probably carries this race home.
5 – POETIC CODE – has the top EP/LP combo in the field and gets a jockey upgrade to Jose Ortiz
6 – TAPATERM – should be 3rd/4th in line and has the best LP by a little
8 – MEKANO – will likely be pilot or co-pilot with #3, strong LP improvement in his last and trainer Bobby Dibona hits 22% second start with new horse vs 11% overall
4 – NO MAN LEFT BEHIND – lone first time starter, good workouts, leading jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr
Race 2 – 5 ½ Furlongs AW – 57 Races, 40 won by speed, 16 w2w -PP: fair 1-7, slight bonus 8+
Six horse and just one of them usually goes for the lead out of the gate, three usually chase the leader and a pair that close. The setup should benefit frontrunners.
1 – SIMPLIFY – may not be the best horse, but could be lone speed and gets a 7 pound weight break, approx. ¾ length benefit, improved across the board in last
6 – FOLLOW ME MOM – ran TLRSP#, 1st off the claim 12/48 (25%) for trainer Gustavo Delgado 15% overall – top EP/LP #s by far
4 – QUEEN CALYPSO – won two in a row and could be better in 3rd off the bench, bullet work since last
3 – PINO IN A PURSE – ran well on AW at Woodbine, 7/3-1-1, usually better in 2nd off the break, Irad and Saffie Joseph, jr.
Race 3 – 1 Mile Turf – 104 Races, 63 won by speed, 30 w2w -PP: fair 1-7, 8+ penalty (8 runners)
Another barbell race with three that will challenge for the lead, four that prefer to make their moves late and a pair of first-time starters. This should benefit the trio of early runners, but you don’t know how the two firsters are going to impact the pace.
3 – KELSEY’S SHOT – one of two TC DROPS, first since September 11, first Lasix and one of two E horses
8 – MIA CAMILA – has the top EP/LP combo, tr/jy combo Jose D’Angelo and Jose Ortiz 6/4-1-0
4 – HARDSPUN WOMAN – the other TC Drop, 1st off layoff with 22f good works since last run, top LP#s
5 – Z FIRST – 3rd start off the bench, 3 SP# increases, mild 2/4f improvement in his last
Race 4 – 1 Mile 70 yards AW – 110 Races, 58 won off the pace, 9 w2w -PP: Slight rail bias, 2-7>8+ by a little
No speed in here, just one frontrunner, a pair that can pressure and a lucky seven that prefer to come from the back to the front. If the early types can run reasonable fractions, they could go w2w. This is one tough race here.
7 – MISS CALIFORNIA – won debut with the TLRSP#, trainer Jorge Delgado hits at 30% following a claim, overall at 21%
8 – SUSANS NOVELA – has the top EP/LP combo in the field, jy/tr combo of Javier Castellano/Steve Klesaris no wins but 5/6 ITM
1 – CAGUA
6 – SNEAKY CHEEKY
Race 5 – 1 Mile Dirt – 80 Races, 60 won by speed, 26 w2w -PP: Slight inside out 1-7, 8+Bonus
Limited races and a limited number of horses that show an interest in going to the front. Two of eight have tried for the lead at least one. They’ll take on four closers, a presser that tries late and a first-time starter. Horses close to the front with kick could get it done here.
3 – MISSY GREER –TLRSP#, should be better in 2nd start after a layoff, 2nd Lasix – Jy Luis Saez heating up
6 – I’M BAFFLED – $1.1 million horse, decent works getting ready
8 – FRIENDSHIP ROAD – Upgrade to Irad, strong LP improvement, 11f works since her last race
5 – RUM SWIZZLE – Jose switches from #7 to here, was well bet in debut 16f works since her last on Feb
Race 6 – 1 Mile Turf – 104 Races, 63 won by speed, 30 w2w -PP: Fair 1-7, small penalty 8+
A backloaded field here with six of the 10 preferring to run down the leaders, two chasers and two frontrunners make up the rest. Early pace should be able to hold provided they don’t run burning fractions.
4 – EXCHANGE DAY – could be lone speed, a half mile over 47.5 and he’ll be hard to beat, 48+ and it’s probably over
2 – DOMINATE THEMOMENT – might be top pick if not for 8-months in the barn, working well getting ready and tends to run OK of the bench
6 – MAGICAL MARRIAGE – tied for TLRSP#, was maiden win but could be better in 2nd off the bench, could bounce
10 – SUPER DESIGN – broke maiden at MSW 135k, tops in the field tr Wesley Ward winning at 39%, has run his best fresh, like today
Race 7 – 1 Mile Dirt – 80 Races, 60 won by speed, 26 w2w -PP: Slight inside out 1-7, 8+Bonus
There isn’t a true frontrunner in here, there are two, maybe three, that don’t mind being co-pilot and four that close, a couple of which are never really involved.
5 – OUR FANTASY – Tyler G rode 2x, a second and a win, ITM 12/5-3-2 at Distance, runs well off the bench
2 – SMARMY – probably the winner, but faded late in two 1 mile runs at Oaklawn, but OP 1 mile is 2-turns GP is 1 – could be the difference
1 – CELESTIAL CHEETAH – 3rd off the layoff, winner of 2/3 at the distance, came back to win after bombing like she did in here last
4 – BATTLE CRY – should improve in her second start after a layoff, usually well bet and has a win/place in two at the distance
Race 8 – 7 ½ Furlongs Turf – 17 Races, 9 won by speed, 4 w2w -PP: Inside 3 bias, 8+>4-7
A pair should hop out to the front with four chasing and three that try to take the trip from back to front. A couple of first time starters can alter the balance. If not the pilot, then a co-pilot could take this one.
10 – SINFULICIOUS – just missed in debut, should be better in round 2, maintenance work since last, looking for a cleaner break
6 – CHICA BOOM – strong ATB improvement in last race vs previous 1 mile, turf 6/0-0-4
11 – TEMPERMENTAL – tr Jeremiah Englehart 27% MCL vs 18% overall, 1st grass trip and could be forwardly places
3 – CALI DIVINE – came off the bench hot in here last with by far her best race, maybe she bounces maybe she improves in her second start following a 5-month layoff, a nice work since suggests she should be ok
