Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Delaware Park Full Card Picks
Terry’s Canterbury Park Best Bet
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Thistledown
Delaware Park Horse Racing Picks and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
5 – Esta Chuck – She broke her maiden in the race before the last one at today’s distance – In the next race she came into the stretch wide and finished 6th. The trainer wins 24% of the races in dirt starts.
4 – Our Sweet Pea – She drops in class today; her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and she has a good 4F workout (May-13).
3 – Brycens Gold – She finished 3rd vs similar while getting the highest last race speed rating and has a bullet workout on 18May Del 3f ft :36.3 B 1/29
1A – Bellswillberinging – She should improve while returning to a route and has a bullet 4F workout (May-13).
Alternate:
1 – Bon Fire Diva
7 – Offlee Graysful
Race 2
3 – Gina – She has the highest last race speed rating, drops in class today, the trainer wins 20% of the time when bringing a horse back after being away 90+ days and she has two bullet workouts in a row.
5 – Fishers – She may improve while trying dirt, drops in class today, the trainer wins 33% of the time when using Lasix for the 1st time and she has a good 4F workout (May-18).
6 – Believe in Freedom – She is a first-time starter and has a decent workout on 06May Fai 4f ft :50 Bg1/2.
2 – Mygidgetmarie – She has a trainer who wins 33% of the time when shipping in to race and a bullet workout on 10May Del 5f ft 1:01ª B 1/6.
Alternate:
4 – Chez Soleil
1 – I Love Maria
Race 3
4 – Thorny Tale – He won a race at PARX Racing and tried Aqueduct without success, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and he has a bullet workout on 20May Del 4f ft :47ª B 1/27.
1 – My Man Pots N Pans – He has finished in the money in the last three races, winning one and running 2nd in his last race – He has a decent workout on 29Apr Fai 4f ft :50 B 5/15.
9 – Sandy Lane Kitten – He has finished in the money in five out of the last six races winning one of the races.
5 – Outrageous Bet – He is coming in from Tampa Bay after running 2nd in his last race to try Delaware for the first time.
Alternate:
2 – Morocco
8 – Flat Out Flying
Race 4
1- Mama G’s Wish – She has finished in the money in nine out of her last ten races winning four of the races – She finished 2nd in her last race and earned the highest last race speed rating (tie).
3 – She’s a Big Deal – She finished 3rd in her last race at Laurel – She has a trainer who wins 18% of the time when shipping into race.
2 – Sister Supream – She finished 6th in her last race after bumping with a foe at the start of the race – Her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
5 – Dare Me – She was off slow in her last race and has a decent workout on 20May Del 3f ft :36.1 Bg2/14.
Race 5
3 – Luminist – She has finished 2nd in two out of three career races, finishing 4th in her the last race beaten only 1.00 lengths vs similar in – She has a decent 5F workout on May-19th.
5 – Diva Ready – She ran mid-pack in her debut race after being bumped and bothered in the 1st turn but still got the best Prime Power: 126.2 (1st), drops in class today and she has a trainer who wins 33% of the time that his horse is entered in the 2nd route race.
2 – Alwaysinmotion – Her Dam has 4 winners from 6 starters and 1 Turf winner, the trainer wins 27% of the time with the horse’s 2nd start with the trainer and has a decent workout on 19May Fai tr.t 7f ft 1:29 B 1/3.
6 – Coffee Bean – Her best turf speed is faster than the Avg winning speed andhas a decent workout on 18May Fai tr.t 4f ft :49.2 B 3/5.
Race 6
2 – American Patrol – He has won two races in a row going for a hat trick – The trainer wins 28% of the time in a horse’s 2nd race off a layoff.
5 – Indian Lake – He ran 2nd in last race at Laurel – He likes this track finishing in the money 80% of the time and likes the distance finishing in the money 100% of the time, winning 50% of the races.
4 – Tappin Cat – He has won three out of his last five races, has the highest last race speed rating and drops in class today.
3 – Phat Man – Tried the turf in a G3 and did not do well, should improve while returning to dirt, drops in class today and the trainer wins 17% of the time in dirt starts.
Alternate:
6 – Frosted Grace
7 – Borracho
Race 7
3 – Terry’s Charm – He has finished in the money in the last three races, winning the last race, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and has a good 4F workout on 18May Parx 4f ft :47.4 B 3/26.
10 – Lake Nakuru – He is a deep closer so the added distance should help, his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and has a decent workout on 18May Del 5f ft 1:02.4 B 2/5.
11 – Chief Cheetah – He finished in the money in five out of the last six races, winning his last race and has only finished out of the money in two races in his career.
9 – Irish Riviera– He finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in last race at Pimlico and has high % winning trainer Jamie Ness.
Alternate:
2 – Jack Gave Back
5 – Borgobythesea
Race 8
1 – Muchacho Macho– He has won two races out of the last three races, finishing 3rd in last race at Laurel.
5 – Even Thunder – He comes in from Belmont Park, drops in class today, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
3 – Whirlin Curlin – He has won one race out of his last three races and his best dirt speed is faster than the Avg winning speed.
4 – Wall – Trying Delaware for the first time – He is a deep closer and the added distance will benefit him
Alternate:
7 – Linda’s Nekia
6 – Surfer Boy George
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 1 mile, 89 races, 59 won by speed, 24 w2w – PP: fair 1-7, 8+ bonus
1 – BON FIRE DIVA – has a pair of 1 mile works since her last race, could be better in 3rd off the bench,
3 – BRYCENS GOLD – ships in from Tampa Bay, has a bullet work on May 18th, better 4/ and LP#s in last
5 – ESTA CHUCK -was better in the first half mile of her last race, 3rd off the layoff is 24% angle for tr Anthony Pecoraro
7 – OFFLEE GRAYSFUL – is a horse for the course, 8/1-2-2 – 18/0-0-3 elsewhere. 6/0-0-3 at the distance
Race 2 – 5 ½ furlongs, 95 races, 60 won by speed, 21 w2w -PP: outside in bias, 8+ wins more than it should, 4-7 is about right, 1-3 underperform
5 – FISHERS – hasn’t raced since last July in Saratoga, two bullet works at Laurel getting ready, $132k horse, 1st Lasix
3 – GINA – hasn’t run since September, 2 time beaten favorite, two bullet works at Delaware getting ready
4 – CHEZ SOLEIL – taking the two first time starters based on workouts and odds, this one gets a weight break
6 – BELIEVE IN FREEDOM –
Race 3 – 1 1/16 miles turf, 11 races, 6 won off the pace, 3 w2w – PP: only 1 winner from 2-3, 4-7>8+
8 – FLAT OUT FLYING – LS -coming in from Parx, 1st try on grass, TLRSP#, drops in class, off track 5/2-1-0 and top SP# suggest he’ll like turf
9 – SANDY LANE KITTEN – big time upgraded 2/4 pace#s in last, ran much better fractions too, Delaware 7/3-1-0, distance 12/4-2-2
5 – OUTRAGEOUS BET – missed by a ½ and nose in his last two, both on grass, made big moves in his last
4 – THORNY TALE – ships in from Parx for Jamie Ness and jy Jaime Rodriguez, the combo wins at 39% and ITM 73% for +0.50 ROI
Race 4 – 6 furlongs, 174 races, 111 won by speed, 47 w2w – PP: inside 3 underperform slightly, 4+ outperforms slightly
1 – MAMA G’S WISH – 9 of her last 10 races were high quality, some late race improvement in her last
2 – SISTER SUPREAM – got the better of the top pick two back, gets a weight break
3 – SHE’S A BIG DEAL – 6 SP# increases, yet to finish ahead of MAMA G in three tries, usually way behind
5 – DARE ME – all that’s left
Race 5 – 1 mile 70 yards Turf, 21 races, 11 won off the pace, 7 w2w -PP: very big inside 3 bias, especially the rail, 4-7 way underperformed, 8+ a small bonus
Box It Up
3 – LUMINIST – been off more than a year, has two first starts and both ended 2nd, showed plenty of late push in all three races
5 – DIVA READY – had troubled trip at Keeneland in her debut, trainer Jonathan Thomas win second start at 32%
6 – COFFEE BEAN – ran slightly better fractions in her last, runs better closer to the front, but has strong late pace
13 – CHAMELEON – drops in class, bullet workout on May 19, was decently bet in debut, very strong late push
Race 6 – 1 Mile, 89 races, 59 won by speed, 24 w2w – PP: fair 1-7 with slight bonus 8+
2 – AMERICAN PATROL – won three of last four races, came off the bench to run his best times, should be as good in round 2 off the break
4 – TAPPIN CAT – this will be the fist non-graded stakes race in his last three, won a pair easily the last couple of times at this level – Delaware 9/5-2-1, elsewhere 20/3-8-2
3 – PHAT MAN – has run in non graded and graded stakes races in 9/10, won the last time he ran in non stakes race
5 – INDIAN LAKE – been knock, knock, knocking of Delaware Park’s winners’ circle door, 5/0-3-1, close in his last at Laurel, expect him to be better in round 2 off the bench
Race 7 – Race 3 – 1 1/16 miles turf, 11 races, 6 won off the pace, 3 w2w – PP: only 1 winner from 2-3, 4-7>8+
9 – IRISH RIVIERA – Ness/Rodriguez combo again, ITM 3/4 on an off track, can show exceptional late pace
4 – SOMETHINGANDCHANGE – TLRSP#, but hasn’t raced since October, should be bigger, better, stronger as a 3 yo, Eddie C angle of Bullet, maintenance and then go to the track
5 – BORGOBYTHESEA – 14 races with 2 wins, two races on Delaware Turf = those two wins
10 – LAKE NAKURU – 1st off the claim for tr Michael Gorham, 29% angle is the top training angle in the field
Race 8 – 1 mile 70 yards, 88 races, 61 won by speed, 28 w2w – PP: 1-3 slightly underperform, 4-7 fair, 8+ major bonus
2 – PAY THE KID – was better ATB in his last with way better fractions from start to finish
1 – MUCHACHO MACHO – going to be a major favorite, but showed some regression in his last
5 – EVEN THUNDER – weight break and ran some better fractions in his last at Belmont
3 – WHIRLIN CURLIN – is probably the most consistent horse, the last time he blew a tire, like he did in the last start, he finished third by a neck in next race
