Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Belmont Park Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Terry’s Gulfstream Park Best Bet
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Delaware Park
Belmont Park Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
1A – Cowichan – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race receiving the highest last race speed rating and she has a trainer who wins 33% of the time when bringing back a horse to race a 2nd time on a grass race – She was well bet in debut and the jockey in the last 7 days has this record (16 4-3-4).
3 – Fourway Stop – She finished 3rd vs similar in only start.
4 – Love Tank – She ran 5th in her last race after being bumped hard at the start and blinkers are added today which may help.
7 – Just a Care – She is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests she will like the grass, and she has a good 3F workout on Jun-24.
Alternate:
1 – Lady Wildcat
6 – Apple Picker
Race 2
6 – Forestwood Lane – He has won two races in a row and is going for a hat trick – He has the highest last race speed rating and has a trainer who wins 21% of the time when bringing back a horse who has been off for 46-90 days.
5 – Truebelieve – He ran 4th in his last race, drops in class today, switches to a high % winning jockey and a trainer who wins 20% of the time in a horse’s 2nd start with this trainer.
4 – Irish Giant – He likes the track and distance finishing in the money 60% of the time, winning 20% of the races.
2 – Dee Bo – He drops in class today and his best dirt speed is close to the Avg Winning Speed.
Alternate:
3 – Scorpion Dynasty
1 – Quintarelli
Race 3
2 – Strong Embrace – She has finished in the money in her last four races, winning one of the starts, she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and the trainer who wins 22% of the time when bringing back a beaten favorite to race again.
3 – Vintage Girl – She has finished in the money in her last six races, winning one of the starts and gets a jockey change to Jose Ortiz.
7 – Thataint Tooshabby – She finished 3rd in her last race, received highest last race speed rating and switches to a high % winning jockey.
5 – Solib – She likes the track finishing in the money 66% of the time, winning 33% of the races and the distance finishing in the money 50% of the time, winning 25% of the races.
Alternate:
1A – Spooky Road
4 – Radiant Gem
Race 4
2 – Crypto Cash – He has finished in the money in his last five races, winning two of the starts, has the highest last race speed rating, the rail post is winning at 23% clip and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey who has this record in last 14 days (6 2-1-1).
3 – Grumps Little Tots – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie), the jockey has this record in last 7 days (16 4-3-4) and he has a good 5F workout on Jun-23.
1A- Mount Travers – He drops in class today; his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and the trainer in the last 14 days has this record (6 2-1-2).
4 – Lost in Rome – He drops in class today, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and a jockey in the last 7days has this record (16 4-2-1).
Alternate:
1 – Dark Storm
5 – Musical
Race 5
5 – Topic Changer – He ran 2nd at 1-1/16 and could improve going to bit longer distance – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey and blinkers added today.
8 – Sense a Giant – He is a first-time starter trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Flavien Prat.
10 – Olympic Dreams –He is another first-time starter in the race and trained by Christophe Clement and ridden by Joel Rosario.
4 – Silent Running – He has finished 3rd in his last race, has a high % winning jockey and trainer who wins 33% of the time when taking a horse from a maiden claiming to a maiden race.
Alternate:
2 – Curlin’s Wisdom
1 – Lucky Brody
Race 6
1 – Devil’s Code – He finished 3rd in his last races, the rail post is winning at 21% clip, he has the highest last race speed rating and has a high % winning jockey.
10 – Jake Rocks – He drops in class today, switches to a high % winning jockey and returning to a sprint should help – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and the jockey in the last 7days has this record (16 4-3-4).
5 – Scotto – He finished in the money in his last three races, should improve while returning to dirt and has a jockey who in the last 7days has this record (16 4-2-1).
2 – Cajun Commander – He finished 3rd vs similar in last race.
Alternate:
6 – Nature Boy
4 – Forty Comets
Race 7
7 – Price Discipline – He won his debut race at Belmont at mile in a really good time of 1:34.4 as the favorite and has a trainer/ jockey in the last 7 days has this record (9 4-2-1).
3 – Colloquy – He finished in the money in all his three career races, winning the last race at Belmont and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Montebello – He has finished in the money in three out of four career races, winning one of the races, has the highest last race speed rating, and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – He has a high % winning trainer and a bullet 5F workout of Jun-24.
4 – Full Moon Fever – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, switches to a high % winning jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (16 4-2-1).
Alternate:
1 – Son of an Ex
2 – Thrill of It
Race 8
2 – Q F Seventy Five – He has finished in the money in five of his seven career races, winning one of the starts and has a high % winning trainer and jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (16 4-3-4).
1 – Balthus – He won his last race at Belmont on the turf and has a high % winning trainer and Jockey.
7 – Easter – He ran 4th in his last race on the turf at today’s distance, drops in class today, has the highest last race speed rating and a high % winning Jockey.
5 – Beauty Amazed– He won his last race in Ireland and now comes to the USA to try his luck.
Race 9
4 – Miss Sugar Hill – She ran 2nd in her last race at Gulfstream Park, has a high % winning trainer who wins 30% of the time when taking a horse from a maiden to maiden claiming race and switches to a high % winning jockey.
2 – Roundabout – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, has a high % winning trainer and jockey and Lasix is added.
9 – Jazz Time Girl – She drops in class today and her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
8 – Mostly Harmless – She drops in class today and has the highest last race speed rating and her best turf speed is faster than the Avg Winning Speed.
Alternate:
3 – Diamond Status
11 – Diamant Damhsa
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 6 Furlongs Inner Turf, 24 races, 15 won by speed, 4 w2w – PP: 0 wins from the rail, fair 2-7, 8+ underperforms by half
7 – JUST A CARE – got to take a swing at beating the even money favorite, strong Keeneland works, top turf pedigree marks by a good margin
1A – COWICHAN – her EP numbers dominate the horses with experience, you never know with 2 yos, but a repeat of the debut run could make it look easy
3 – FOURWAY STOP – hesitated at the start of her debut, middle of the road works since, but a better start might be all she needs
5 – REDIFINED – has some EP too and could surprise with the lead
Race 2 – 6 Furlongs, 59 races, 46 won by speed, 30 w2w – PP: solid inside 3 bias, 8+>4-7
4 – IRISH GIANT – ran similar fractions at 6 1/2f as 6f, could be better in the 3rd start off the bench
5 – TRUEBELIEVE – drops in class after same fractions at 7f as he did at 6f last out
2 – DEE BO – has a sizable EP edge at a distance where 50% go w2w
6 – FORESTWOOD LANE – has the best LP of any in here, is a nose from winning 3 in row, two maintenance works since last effort
Race 3 – 1 1/16 Miles Widener Turf, 12 races, 2 won by speed, 1 w2w – PP: none from rail, 1 from 2/3, outside in 4+
2 – STRONG EMBRACE – has the best LP#s and should be rolling late, 12f works since last race
5 – SOLIB – has the top EP/LP combo in the field, her chance is to go w2w
4 – RADIANT GEM – won the maiden race in her last, also has some solid late pace
7 – THATAINT TOOSHABBY – TLRSP#, 2 wins in 4 races on turf, can run from the front, middle or back
Race 4 – 1 Mile, 44 races, 33 won by speed, 14 w2w – PP: strong rail edge, inside out form there
2 – CRYPTO CASH – isn’t all that far from winning 5 in a row, 1st off the claim for tr Rob Altras, 27% winner of the claim
3 – GRUMPS LITTLE TOTS – been off since November, came back to win the last time he had a similar break
1A – MOUNT TRAVERS – the one the trainer left in from an entry usually does OK
5 – MUSICAL AMERICA – end of his races are terrible, but has a strong early edge over the field and could be a length ahead of the rest going into the turn, just hang on
Race 5 – 1 1/8 Miles Inner Turf, 7 races, 4 won by speed, 1 w2w – PP: inside 3 fair, 4-7 really struggle, 8+ winning at 2x the rate they should
6 – COMPROMISER – had crazy good LP#s in his debut, just needs a little better start, upgrading to Saez should help
10 – OLYMPIC DREAMS – like the combo of tr Clement and Rosario on grass, top 1st time starter IMO
8 – SENSE A GIANT – Pletcher, Pratt and the Eddie C angle, Bullet work, maintenance and go to work
9 – CONQUIST – tough call over the 5, but the 5 ran in MCL, the 9 MSW 75 and with better pace numbers from start to finish
5 – TOPIC CHANGER
Race 6 – 6 Furlongs, 59 races, 46 won by speed, 30 w2w – PP: solid inside 3 bias, 8+>4-7
6 – NATURE BOY – LS – has the top EP by a long way, never mind the LP fall off in last as he Trevor took the foot off the gas
1 – DEVIL’S CODE – major drop in class, concerning but has the most back class
10 – JAKE ROCKS – not the biggest fan of Belmont 4/0-0-1, but Distance 10/0-1-6, drops in class and get Joel Rosario
7 – FOREST SPIRIT
Race 7 – 1 1/16 Miles, 28 races, 20 won by speed, 8 w2w – PP: fair 1-7, bump 8+
5 – MONTEBELLO – got to take something to beat the 3/5 favorite, has the most EP and 4 f work of 46.4, that’s fast
7 – PRICE DISCIPLINE – won his debit as the heavy favorite with ease despite some in race problems
3 – COLLOQUY – comes off the bench after getting the maiden win in the 3rd try, a couple OK works getting ready
4 – FULL MOON FEVER
Race 8 – 1 3/8 Miles Inner Turf, 2 races. 50/50, 0 w2w – PP: 1 from the rail, 1 from 4-7
2 – Q F SEVENTY FIVE – speed might not be the way, but he could get an easy lead without working too hard
7 – EASTER – drops from a G1 with the TLRSP#, 21 f of works since last race
9 – HILLIARD – better #s ATB in 1st off the bench, resume says he’ll up it in R2 off the sidelines
1 – BALTHUS – Chad Brown/Manny Franco hitting at 34% together with $0.45 ROI, could be at beat in 3rd after a layoff
Race 9 – 7 Furlongs Turf, 26 races, 50/50, – PP: inside 3 bias, 4+ are a little underwater but similar
2 – ROUNDABOUT – just missed at this level in last after dropping from MSW 100K in last year’s debut, gets 1st Lasix here which should help
4 – MISS SUGAR HILL – tr Christophe Clement wins at 31% going MSW to MCL and puts Flavien on the mount
8 – MOSTLY HARMLESS – TLRSP# and drops in class, ran a lot faster fractions in her last
9 – JAZZ TIME GIRL – the last of the MSW droppers and has some strong works getting ready
