Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Colonial Downs Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Picks with the Professor’s MLB Play of the Day
Terry’s Horseshoe Indianapolis Best Bet
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Thistledown
Colonial Downs Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
5 – Naval Empire – She is a first-time starter whose breeding suits today’s sprint distance and she has a good 4F workout on Jul-05.
6 – La Tache – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 5 winners from 6 starters and 1 stakes winner.
2 – Bee Mountain – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 2 winners from 5 starters and 1 stakes winner, her breeding suits today’s sprint distance and she has a good 4F workout on Jul-06.
3 – Munnis Pretty- She is a first-time starter whose Sire wins 16% of the races with 1st time starters, Dam has 1 winner from 2 starters and her breeding suits today’s sprint distance.
Alternate:
4 – Livana
Race 2
8 – Goldie’s Boy – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race and drops in class today.
2 – Fear the Deer – He drops in class today; his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and has a trainer who wins 18% of the time when racing a horse in the 2nd race off a layoff.
1 – Sam in Style – He ran 4th in his last race beaten only 1-1/4 lengths vs tougher in last start, has the highest last race speed rating, drops in class today and the rail post is winning at 19% clip.
7 – Power Through – He drops in class today and may improve in 2nd start since layoff.
Alternate:
9 – Hellfire Bob
4 – Glorious Weekend
Race 3
6 – Purrfect – She is a first-time starter who has good breeding, and she has a bullet workout on 05Jly Del 5f ft 1:01.3 B 1/6.
5 – La Samana Laura – She ran 2nd in her last race at Delaware Park, has the highest last race speed rating, a trainer who wins 24% of the time when racing a horse in the 2nd race off a layoff and has a good 3F workout onJul-02.
2 – Love of My Life – She has a lot of racing experience, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, blinkers are added today, and she has a bullet workout on Kee 3f ft :35 B 1/12.
1 – Black Currency – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 4 winners from 6 starters, her breeding suits today’s sprint distance and she has a good 3F workout onJul-02.
Alternate:
3 – Noble Present
7 – Kimsfavoritestorm
Race 4
1 – Safe Travels – The rail post is winning at 19% clip, she drops in class today, can improve while returning to a route and has a good 4F workout on Jul-05.
2 – Tiz Nena – She seems to like turf better than dirt and is returning to turf for this race and has a bullet 6F workout on Jul-04 Cnl 6f ft 1:14.2 B 1/4.
3 – Chica Boom – She has the highest last race speed rating, drops in class today, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
4 – Schatzi – She finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in her last race and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Alternate:
6 – Map the Moment
8 – Wasser
Race 5
11 – Flying Fortress – She has won two out of three career races, winning the last race at Laurel Park.
1 – Elke Do Jaguarete – She has finished in the money in the last three races, finishing 1st in her last race at Horseshoe Indianapolis.
8 – Aurum – She has won two out of three career races, winning the last race at Laurel Park and has the highest last race speed rating.
12 – Go Big Blue Nation – She drops in class today and her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
Alternate:
5 – Longpants Required
Race 6
3 – Byrdie Howe – She ran 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in her last race and has the highest last race speed rating.
4 – Scent of Royalty – She finished 3rd vs tougher (on Dirt) in her only start, drops in class today, her breeding suggests she will like the grass and her dam has 2 winners from 3 starters and 2 Turf winners.
6 – Soft Touch – She was heavily bet in her debut running 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in her only start, her breeding suggests she will like the grass as he Dam has 5 winners from 6 starters and 3 Turf winners.
1 – Tequilera – Her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters, and she has a bullet 5F workout on Jul-02.
Alternate:
8 – Paris Kentucky
Race 7
8 – Titrate – He finished 6th in his last race after having trouble at the start and coming 5-wide into the stretch, drops in class today and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
5 – Son of Grace – He has been off since January but has several good workouts in preparation for this race – He likes the distance, has a high % winning trainer who wins 36% of the time when bringing a horse back from being off 90+ days and a high % winning jockey.
6 – Chilling Secret – He has early speed, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and has done well on the turf.
4 – Noicattaro – He won his last race at Tampa Bay Downs, has the highest last race speed rating, and has a trainer who wins 19% of the time when shipping a horse in to race.
Alternate:
9 – Swift Kid
3 – Koko Star
Race 8
5 – Tulfarris – He finished 3rd vs tougher (on AW) in his last race at Gulfstream Park, has the highest last race speed rating, drops in class today and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
6 – Stratford – He has finished in the money in four of his five career races, winning the last one at Tampa Bay Downs.
2 – Thatza Alpha – He finished 2nd in his last race at today’s distance and has shown he can compete on the turf.
8 – Tapit to the Wire – He has two bullet workouts in a row and a good jockey.
Alternate:
9 – Auction Kingdom
Race 9
3 – American Drama – He drops in class today and has a bullet workout on 07Jly Fai tr.t 5f ft 1:02 B 1/8.
5 – Fotheringay – He ran 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in his last race and his breeding suggests he will like the grass as his Dam has 5 winners from 6 starters and 2 Turf winners.
7 – Spotted Cat – He was well bet in debut but was bumped at the break which may have affected his race and he has a trainer who wins 40% of the time when moving a horse from maiden to maiden claiming race.
4 – Ice Bar – He finished 3rd vs tougher (on Dirt) in is last race, drops in class today, his breeding suggests he will like the grass and his Dam has 1 winner from 3 starters and 1 Turf winner.
Alternate:
13 – Noble Cross
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 6 Furlongs – lone dirt trip yesterday -7f – won w2w from PP 6
2 – BEE MOUNTAIN – most expensive horse in the field, works are as good as any on paper
6 – LA TACHE – bullet and go angle, alpha for first time starters, tr Michael Stidham top win% of trainers in this race for 1st time starters
5 – NAVAL EMPIRE – top pedigree numbers for the distance, works are solid compared to this field
3 – MUNNIS PRETTY – of the two longest shots, has the better workout times
Race 2 – 1 Mile Inner Turf – 2 races yesterday, both pressers, one from PP3 the other 12
2 – FEAR THE DEER – is a presser that should be 2nd/3rd at the half, was better 2/4f numbers in last and might be better in r2 off the bench
7 – POWER THROUGH – is likely to be the pacesetter and has the top EP#s by a decent margin, much better ¼ and ½ fractions in last, jy/tr combo of Loveberry and Block won 5/11 together
1 – SAM IN STYLE – drops in class, but lone win was MCL 10k, does have Colonial experience 3/0-1-1
4 – GLORIOUS WEEKEND – dropping in class, this one tends to make some strong late moves, but could be closer to the pace with this bunch, if so, his late kick could be tough to match for other frontrunners
Race 3 – 6 Furlongs – lone dirt trip yesterday -7f – won w2w from PP 6
5 – LA SAMANA LAURA – was off for 7 months after Nov debut, came back to run better ATB despite hopping at the start, a pair of quick works since
6 – PURRFECT – bullets galore in her workouts getting ready for her debut
1 – BLACK CURRENCY – the other first time starter in here without at lot of others to beat, only 4 yo in the field vs all 3 yo
2 – LOVE OF MY LIFE – gets my vote as the 2nd best experienced horses in the files, better first half mile in her last, bullet work between, looking for improvement in 2nd start after a layoff
Race 4 – 1 Mile Inner Turf – 2 races yesterday, both pressers, one from PP3 the other 12
3 – CHICA BOOM – is a closer that has some of the better EP#s in this field, could be on the lead at the ½ mile marker, TLRSP# and drops in class
4 – SCHATZI – has the best LP in the field by a noticeable margin, gets a weight break and consistently runs some of the best SP#, but not a lot of upside
2 – TIZ NENA – lone win came at the distance, 2/1-0-0, nice Colonial workout, Mike Smith angle, how a horse works at a track it typically runs
1 – SAFE TRAVELS – could be the race pilot, last and only time she got the lead, she went w2w to break her maiden 2 back
Race 5 – 1 1/16 Miles Outer Turf – No Races Yesterday
8 – AURUM – really like Trevor McCarthy on these kind of horses, is going to be mid pack with late punch, improved in each of her starts, better ATB in 1st off the bench, TLRSP#, Eddie C angle since
11 – FLYING FORTRESS – should be charging late, winner of 2/3 of turf, always well bet, just don’t like horses coming from way off the pace because of potential traffic problems in deeper fields – clean trip and she probably wins
1 – ELKE DO JAGUARETE – has the top pedigree numbers for turf and won two of last three on grass
7 – SMARMY – $700k horse and lone EP in the field, has top EP#s, trying grass for the first time, drop in class, probably smokes this group if the race is moved off grass
Race 6 – 1 1/16 Miles Outer Turf – No Races Yesterday
6 – SOFT TOUCH – has run since last year at Colonial, been working OK, was the 50 cent favorite, keep an eye on odds, if she gets play, she’ll be live
4 – SCENT OF ROYALTY – debuted at CD for MSW 120k, should be forwardly places and has some decent LP, two decent works since debut
3 – BYRDIE HOWE – the lone Presser Closer in the field, the most versatile horse in the field, TLRSP#
1 – TEQUILERA – tough call over the first timer, if the 2 gets play from horseplayers, maybe switch them around, robust works since last race
Race 7 – 1 Mile Inner Turf – 2 races yesterday, both pressers, one from PP3 the other 12
3 – KOKO STAR – LS – been running marathons, rewind to normal races and his speed numbers would smoke what any of the others have done so far – really good works at Colonial getting ready
8 – TITRATE – drops in class, ran better fractions in last, 1 for 1 at CNL, very consistent performer without a lot of upside
5 – SON OF GRACE – should be on the lead at the half and the one they’ll all need to pass, did run well in only other run off a break, distance 3/1-1-0 and turf 4/1-2-0
9 – SWIFT KID – probably not a winner, but likes the distance, 11/1-4-3, expecting more in 2nd off the bench, and 2nd for trainer Angel Rodriguez hits at 21% 2nd start with a new horse
Race 8 – 1 1/16 Miles Inner Turf, 3 races run yesterday, 2 closers and a w2w – 2 winners from the rail, the other PP 4
5 – TULFARRIS – TLRPS# and dropping in class, coming from the top tracks, GP, BEL, KD, CD… consistently the best numbers in the field and has some upside
8 – TAPIT TO THE WIRE – one of the more lightly raced horses in the field, has run well after some time off, if he is close to the pace, he’ll be live
6 – STRATFORD – has the top LP in the field, they were on dirt, been climbing up the speed ladder, 4 increases in a row, not the biggest fan of MCL climbers
9 – AUCTION KINGDOM – has the top LP#s behind the 6, taking a drop in class here after showing better late in his last
Race 9 – 1 1/16 Miles Inner Turf, 3 races run yesterday, 2 closers and a w2w – 2 winners from the rail, the other PP 4
9 – SMALL FIELD – should be on the lead, and taking one of the biggest drops in the field, gets a weight break
4 – ICE BAR – small drop in class, showed a lot of late burst in his last with top, LP#, 6/1-0-3 so far, 1st turf go
10 – CRITICIZE – another class dropper that ran better fractions last out, does have a win at 2 1/8 miles, distance is no problem, was better in the first half mile last out
7 – SPOTTED CAT – could be the biggest dropper in the field, was well bet in debut back in September, gelded, going to run angry, a couple of good works mixed in with maintenance works
3 – AMERICAN DRAMA – another class dropper, picking up on a theme?
