Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Unfortunately, Terry is out today and maybe for the week.
Rich is solo and discusses…
Horse Racing Picks
Colonial Downs Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Don’t forget to bookmark Picks with the Professor for when baseball returns from the all-star break
Colonial Downs Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 6 Furlongs, 16 races, 15 won by speed, 5 w2w – PP: 1 from the rail, 2/3 underperform, 4-7 a little better than average, 8+ best
5 – GOLDEN HORNET – bullet and go, is a alpha angle, trainer Larry Rivelli hits MSW at 30%
1 – WOODLINE – TLRSP# and drops in from 120k MSW from CD, has a considerable EP edge over the other experienced horses
6 – MALIBU MIKE – 1st Lasix and showed a little bit of early pop in debut, really like the July 2nd work at Keeneland
2 – NORTH BAY – not sure MCL from CD MCL is a drop, has a 4f pace# that rivals the 1, 1st gelded and going to run angry
Race 2 – 5 ½ Furlongs Outer Turf, 38 races, 22 won by speed, 7 w2w – PP: rail underperforms, 2+ fair
1 – EXPECT OURS – left arrow horse, is a pressure closer that should be close to the front, should be better in round 2 off the bench
2 – BEACH HOUSE -is the speed of the speed horses, has a pair of CLN short sprint win at the distance on the inner course,
9 – OIL ON CANVAS – last race was better than it looks on paper, some EP improvement, room to be even better in the 3rd start after a layoff, finished 3rd at this level 2 back
5 – MADAME CLAUDE – tried grass for the first time in her last outing and ran some blistering fractions and her strongest 2/4 EP#s, maybe she’s a turf horse?
Race 3 – 6 Furlongs, 16 races, 15 won by speed, 5 w2w – PP: Absolute inside out bias
6 – ALMA ROSA – was a well beaten 2nd in her debut, not sure but it could be she lost to a potential monster, like that she followed up the race with her best workout
4 – WILMA MANKILLER – is the ML favorite, workouts are uninspiring, but 15f works since June 24th say she’ll be fit here
7 – ACTION ROSE – has one of the better works at Colonial, gets the outside PP, most expensive horse in a field of inexpensive horses
1 – DANDELION – is another with solid Colonial works, 17f works since June 23rd, inside draw hurts
Race 4 – 1 1/8 Miles Inner Turf, 5 races, 3 won off the pace, 1 w2w -PP: 1 win from the rail, all the others 4+
3 – GALILEI – left arrow horse, the only true dropper, last ran on AL at Woodbine, has two nice works since July 2nd
6 – AFRAID NOT – another left arrow horse, better pace#s in 2nd half of last race, could move forwards in 2nd start after a layoff, aside from the 3, the only horse running at the same level as her last, all the others are stepping up in class
1 – BESSIE BLUE – improved SP# in each of her races post debut, keeps improving on the backend of races with powerful LP#s, if she can break a little sharper, might be hard to hold off
4 – SURYA – really tough call between the 4 & 8, the 8 is better from the start, but could lose confidence once she is passed, whereas the #4 has the second bet set of LP#s, although has regressed late from race to race in her first three races, maybe a bounce back here
8 – MELIPONINI BEE
Race 5 – 1 1/16 Miles Inner Turf, 30 races, 50/50, 8 w2w -PP: all fair except 2/3 get a slight discount
1 – SCANNO – been off for 16 months, decent work before heading back to the track. Has by far the most back class, if he runs anywhere near what he is capable of putting on the track, makes it look easy
9 – TOM HAGEN – left arrow horse that should really benefit from all the scratches, bullet work since last and room to improve in 2nd race after more than a year in the barn
8 – I AM THAT I AM – is another that benefits from all the scratches, leaving him as the lone E horse in the race
12 – PERFORMING ARTS – takes over as the top LP horse with the scratches, just missed in his last two on turf and was better early and late in last, soft Z pattern
Race 6 – 5 ½ Furlongs Outer Turf, 38 races, 22 won by speed, 7 w2w – PP: rail underperforms, 2+ fair
5 – MARGIE’S KITCHEN – drops in class and has a couple of maintenance workouts since, including a bullet on Colonial’s Inner turf
3 – ISLAND PHILO – won her last two races, both at 5 1/2f on turf, distance 6/2-1-1, better fractions last out
9 – STILL MY BABE – left arrow horse, closer that should be close to the front, strong LP improvement in her last, could be better in round two off the bench
4 – SILVERY RILL – tough call over the 2, but Trevor and Clement are a solid connection, top pedigree for turf and the distance
2 – DIFFERENTBUTOK
Race 7 – 5 ½ Furlongs Outer Turf, 38 races, 22 won by speed, 7 w2w – PP: rail underperforms, 2+ fair
5 – POINT LOMA – a bunch of good works getting ready for his debut, a Godolphin horse, top pedigree for the distance and surface
2 – OPPOSITES ATTRACT – was well bet in debut at Woodbine, three good works since the debut, a little better start and he could get the job done
1 – DUNEDIN – the last workout before today indicates he’s ready to run today
6 – DUKE OF GLOUCESTER – consistently put up some of the best work outs leading today
Race 8 – 1 1/16 Miles Inner Turf, 30 races, 50/50, 8 w2w -PP: all fair except 2/3 get a slight discount
4 – CANNON’S ROAR – left arrow horse that maybe becomes pacesetter with all the scratches, chance to be better in 2nd off the bench
6 – BIZZEE CHANNEL – is an all or nothing horse at the distance 6/3-0-0, better fractions on yielding 1 1/16 miles than 1 mile on good
9 – EAMONN – is now the top LP horse in the group, but I’d rather take horses close to the front in short fields
5 – ENTERTAINMENT – does have some back speed and a decent in his last before today
Race 9 – 5 ½ Furlongs Outer Turf, 38 races, 22 won by speed, 7 w2w – PP: rail underperforms, 2+ fair
2 – DOM GERVASIO – LS -got off to a slow start in his debut, drops in class here, works say he’ll get off to a better start here and then had the top LP# by a decent margin
5 – BREAKWATER – has the top EP, but it was in routes, sometimes that doesn’t translate to sprints, if he keep the pace, he is a strong w2w candidate
4 – HELL’S KITTEN – pressure horse that should be right off the leaders, was 4/5 favorite in GP debut at about this level, 3 ok works between races
6 – PHAROAH’S FURY – these American Pharoah horses have been good on grass, hasn’t run since last year at Colonial, but some really good works getting ready for his return – one of a quartet of 4 yo vs 3 yo
Winning Pace Needed Worksheet
