Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Horse Racing Picks
Churchill Downs Racing Full Card Picks
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Tampa Bay Downs
Churchill Downs Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
8 – Determinedly – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he has a good 4F workout on Nov-18.
7 – Prairie Dunes – He is a deep closer who may just catch the leaders.
4 – Desert Wolf – He has Tyler Gaffalione in the irons and is trained by Todd Pletcher whose horses wins 26% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to run.
6 – Sun Thunder – He is a first-time starter whose Sire wins 16% with 1st time starters, his Dam has 2 winners from 2 starters and the trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (12 3-2-1).
Alternate:
5 – Shopper’s Revenge
9 – Dreamwithinadream
Race 2
5 – Towhead – She is the only horse that has a win and ran 2nd vs similar in last race, has the highest last race speed rating and a trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (9 3-1-0).
7 – Comparative – She finished 3rd in her two career races, has a trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has finished in the money in 50% of their starts, winning 25% of the races and has a bullet 4F workout on Nov-20.
1 – Wits and Wagers – She has the best dirt speed among today’s starters and the rail post is winning at 20% clip.
9 – Stay Lost – She had a good race last time out, changes to high % winning trainer Norm Casse and switches to jockey Smokin Joe Talamo.
Alternate:
4 – Mija
12 – Theroanrunner
Race 3
4 – Two Eagles River – He won his debut race at Churchill Downs and received a 104-race speed rating and has a good 4f ft :48 B 3/34 on 15Nov @ CD.
2 – Victory Formation – He won his debut race at Keenland as the heavily bet favorite, his best dirt speed is fastest among todays, and he has a good 5F workout on Nov-18.
5 – Joking Way – He won his last race at Churchill Downs and has a good workout on 22Nov CD 3f ft :37.4 B 2/9.
6 – Lugan Knight – He finished 1st & 2nd in his two career races and has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
7 – Coffee Caliente
3 – Lord Grantham
Race 4
10 – Bru Na Boinne – She finished 3rd vs similar in her only start, received the highest last race speed rating and her jockey in the last 7 days has this record (24 6-2-2).
12 – Poblano – She finished 2nd vs similar in her only start and has a high % winning jockey.
11 – Vahva – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and has a good workout on Nov. 20th.
7 – Patty Van Twinkle – She ran 2nd vs similar in her only start and has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
15 – Klassy Bridgette
5 – Market Profile
Race 5
9 – Spielman – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and is ready to graduate, has the highest last race speed rating and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
7 – Point Proven – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and has a decent workout on Nov. 18th.
2 – Escapologist – He was bumped at the start in his last race and finished 4th, has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
10 – Endpoint – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and his jockey in the last 7 days has this record (24 6-2-2).
Alternate:
8 – Level Up
Race 6
5 – Worthington – He won his last race at Keenland and has a trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (13 4-4-0).
10 – Deer District – He ran 2nd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today and should improve at the shorter distance.
1 – Good Heart – He tried a Grade 1 events in his last race and did not finish well and now is back to a class he can be competitive in.
3 – Mendel’s Secret – He has an early foot and should improve at the shorter distance and his trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (9 3-1-0).
Alternate:
12- Aristocracy
9 – Donegal Factor
Race 7
3 – Key of Life – She has won three out of her four career races, has the highest last race speed rating and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
4 – Twirled – She is a nose from being perfect in her two-race career and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Red Carpet Ready – She won her debut race easily and has a good trainer and jockey.
5 – Tell Me When – She has finished in the money in three out of four career races, winning her last race at Churchill Downs and her jockey in last 7 days has won six races out of twenty-four starts.
Alternate:
2 – The Great Maybe
1 – Baytown Lovely
Race 8
5 – Hit Show – He won his debut race at Keenland after being heavily bet and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Highway Robber – He won his debut race at Churchill Downs and has a high % winning trainer.
4 – Must Be the Money – He won his debut race at Churchill Downs as the heavily bet favorite and has a good 5F workout on Nov-19.
7 – Rocket Can – He won his last race at Churchill Downs, received the highest last race speed rating and has a good 5F workout on Nov-18.
Alternate:
10 – Ten Days Later
6 – Confidence Game
Race 9
5 – Powerful – He disappointed in a Grade 1 event in his last race and now returns to a class of horses he can beat cutting back to a shorter which is more to his running style.
6 – Top Recruit – He has won two out of five career races and can improve while returning to a sprint.
3 – Mr Bob – He won his last race at Keenland and has a bullet 4f ft :47 B 1/23 on 15Nov.
4 – Frosted Departure – He is returning to a sprint which may help, and he has a good 4F workout on Nov-22.
Alternate:
7 – Mounsieur Coco
2 – Bourbon Bash
Race 10
4 – Hoosier Philly – She is undefeated in two career starts, has the highest last race speed rating and a good 4F workout on Nov-17.
7 – T Max – She has won two out of three career starts finishing 2nd in her last race, has a good trainer and jockey and has a good 4F workout on Nov-18.
1 – Pretty Mischievous – She has won two races in a row and the rail post is winning at 20% clip.
8 – Pure Pauline – She won her last race at Keenland and at today’s distance closing from off the pace.
Alternate:
5 – Black Forest
10 – Defining Purpose
Race 11
9 – Cyclone Mischief – He won his last race at Keenland at today’s distance with jockey Smokin Joe Talamo who returns to ride again.
1 – Curley Jack – He has won two out of five career starts, the rail post is winning at a 20% clip and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
8 – Instant Coffee – He finished 4th in his last race a Grade 1 event, is trained by Brad Cox and ridden by Luis Saez.
6 – Freedom Trail –He has won both of his career races and has a good 4F workout on Nov-18.
Alternate:
7 – Hayes Strike
4 – Gigante
Race 12
11 – Mobster – He finished 3rd vs similar in his only start and has a good 4F workout on Nov-18.
6 – Itzos – He is a first-time starter whose Sire wins 20% with 1st time Starters, the Dam has 6 winners from 7 starters and 1 stake win and the jockey in the last 7 days has this record (24 6-2-2).
3 – Talladega – He was heavily bet in his debut and has a trainer who has won races out of two starts in last 14 days and 4F workout on Nov-18.
4 – Backside Buzz –He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
2 – King d’Oro
5 – Midnight Pranks
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed PP2+ fair with Rail Penalty
8 – DETERMINEDLY – TLRSP# and being better ATB in last
7 – PRAIRIE DUNES – 2nd by a neck in last – Chris P angle, Z pattern with better fractions last out
9 – DREAMWITHINADREAM – lone experienced P horse with +/O combo
6 – SUN THUNDER – $400k 1st time starter with some very fast 3f works at Saratoga – there isn’t a lot of speed in here from experienced horses, if he pops to an easy lead, could go w2w
Race 2: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Tactical Inside Out Speed
5 – TOWHEAD – Better ATB in move back to dirt after four on grass, ITM 7/1-3-2
7 – COMPARATIVE – been well bet in both starts – NOV 20 bullet is fist in published works – big effort today?
3 – ROSES AND ROZAY – Z pattern in last and supersized LP – 2nd route 19% winner for 15% tr Kenneth McPeek
10 – HARMONICA – should be close to the pace in 1st route after debuting at 7f, tr Thomas Drury, Jr hits at 29% versus 19% overall, major Alpha Angle and the CD works have been hot
Race 3: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed with fair PPs
4 – TWO EAGLES RIVER – ML 4-1 doesn’t make sense to me, +/4f, LP#1, ++O in debut, with by far best SP#, same race = same result – nice work between – sign me up
5 – JOKING WAY – was better ATB in career start 2 as the even money favorite – top pedigree #s
2 – VICTORY FORMATION – EZ debut winner with bullet work on Nove 18 – fastest 5f of 33 in 1 minute flat
8 – GOLD LUCK – lonely C horse, 2nd off the claim for tr Genaro Garcia 24% winner – I feel like one of the top 3 will produce the winner – why not take a shot here?
Race 4: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed PP 2+ fair with Rail Penalty
10 – BRU NA BOINNE – TLRSP# – tr Brett Calhoun hits 21% in 2nd career starts vs 15% over all
1 – DEAR LADY – rail has a penalty but – CD works on Nov 9th 4f in 47.3 and Oct 26th 3f in 35.4 hint at a fast horse
4 – LADY IRENE – another 1st time starter with some good works
11 – VAHVA – been well bet in both starts – had excuses in first two, blew a big lead late in her last, clean start, not problems, holds on today?
Race 5: 1 1/8 Miles – Bias: Tactical Speed Barbell Style, Rail and 8+ best, 4-7 fair, 2/3 major discount
9 – SPIELMAN – leaping forward race to race – same move forward here and it’s a winner
4 – HARD TO COME BY – interesting that Tyler G is here and not in the 11 that was well bet in debut for Asmussen – some good workouts here, wonder if Tyler has been working him? Or if Asmussen didn’t care for debut ride?
11 – SPOILER – in case TG made a mistake, 24f of works since debut on Oct 9, eye on the NOV 15 work
2 – ESCAPOLOGIST – should be rolling late with some stiff LP#s – draw kind of sucks
Race 6: 1 Mile Turf – Bias: Just 1 on the new Turf Course w2w from 8+
1 – GOOD HEART – Tyler G tell? Rode 5 to w win last out and 3 in debut win, stays here instead, must really like debut on turf vs G1 try on dirt in last
10 – DEER DISTRICT – either of last two probably gets the job done here, LP+ P horse, trip will be important
5 – WORTHINGTON – significant step up in race #2 to get maiden score
2 – CURLINS INCHARGE – plenty of EP in this race with 8/10 Es or Ps – debut on Turf showed some nice late run at 6 1/2f – extra distance helps
Race 7: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Inside Out Speed
3 – KEY OF LIFE – won last 3 with ease, a little better 2/4f pace#s
6 – RED CARPET READY – debut was strong, strong fractions and won by 10
2 – THE GREAT MAYBE – if she runs back to debut – good works suggest she could
4 – TWIRLED – better ATB in her last winning her 2nd, but just a nose from winning both
Race 8: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Tactical Inside Out Speed
2 – HIGHWAY ROBBER – Left Arrow horse that won debut with ease, strong effort start to finish
7 – ROCKET CAN – TLRSP# and was brilliant late in his last, was first at CD – Lonely P with scratches
4 – MUST BE THE MONEY – big closing run from start to finish as the 3/2 favorite, good works getting ready
5 – HIT SHOW – smoked them in her debut at Keeneland as 7/5 favorite, extra distance helps here
Race 9: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Inside Out Speed
6 – TOP RECRUIT – should be happy to get back on a fast track after running in the slop last 2
7 – MOUNSIEUR COCO – has a +O edge, only question is 1st at CD, last CD work was swift
3 – MR BOB – TLRSP# and then a bullet work on the Churchill training track – still sharp
4 – FROSTED DEPARTURE – tough call over the 5, but at his best looks a touch better
Race 10: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Tactical Inside Out Speed
4 – HOOSIER PHILLY – won both with ease, love the comment for last, “splashed away, frolicked”
1 – PRETTY MISCHIEVOUS – Left Arrow horse, major mid move in last race and also undefeated in a pair of easy wins
8 – PURE PAULINE – lonely P horse that’s been the betting favorite in both
7 – T MAX – could get be on the front with easier fractions with the 5 scratched
Race 11: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Tactical Inside Out Speed
1 – CURLY JACK – Left Arrow horse and lone PC with +4 EP edge
3 – DENINGTON – TLRSP# and just exploded at the end of his last race – best EP/LP combo
8 – INSTANT COFFEE – probably the best 2 races for this group, needs to get off to a better start, works suggest he could
6 – FREEDOM TRAIL – undefeated in two on grass, if he can bring that form to dirt?
Race 12: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed PP 2+ fair with Rail Penalty
11 – MOBSTER – has the top LP and had the top EPlLP combo in debut, really nice works between races
5 – MIDNIGHT PRANKS – Left Arrow horse, maintenance work between races
3 – TALLADEGA – was betting favorite in debut, a pair of fast works since
6 – ITZOS – $1.4 million horse, better get to earning some it back in debut
Churchill Downs Way to the Winners’ Circle Pace Worksheet (Races 1-6)
Churchill Downs Way to the Winners’ Circle Pace Worksheet (Races 7-12)
