PARX Racing Full Card Tips, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
$100 Challenge – Suggested Wagers for PARX on a $100 Budget
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Louisiana Downs
Parx Picks and Plays
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
2 – Gun Collector – He switches to a high % winning jockey, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he has a good 4F workout on Mar-16.
7 – Norlander – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 30% of the races in the 2nd route race he has a horse running in and switches to a high % winning jockey.
6 – Shy Da Runner – He was bumped at the start in his last race, finishing 2nd and has a high % trainer who wins 34% of the races when taking a horse from a sprint- sprint -route, blinkers added today, and he has a good 4F workout on Mar-22.
Longshot:
5 – Son of a Buck – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
1 – Circle Me Madden
4 – Zoppi Fischbein
Bet: $1.00 DD: 2,5,6,7 / 2,4,5
Race 2
4 – Magicnthemoonlight – He has finished in the money in his last four races, running 2nd vs tougher in last race and drops in class today.
2 – Pine Valley – He has finished in the money in three out of the last four races, winning one and has a high % winning trainer.
5 – Three Comma Glenn – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 32% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
3 – Amity Road – He won his last race at Laurel Park and has done well at today’s distance.
Alternate:
1 – Batter Up Bud
7 – Northern Express
Bet: $.50 Trifecta: 2,4/2,4,5/1,2,3,4,5
Race 3
4 – Blunt Force – She has done well at PARX Racing finishing in the money in 82% of the starts, winning 9% of the races and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Prospera – She won his last race at PARX Racing and switches to a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % jockey.
6 – Beyond a Million – She won her last race at PARX Racing and has a high % winning trainer who wins 25% of the races in the 2nd race off a layoff.
Longshot:
7 – Isabella Smile – She has won her last two races in a row at PARX Racing and now going for a hat trick and has the highest last race speed rating.
Alternate:
3 – Cabra Chica
Bet: $.50 Trifecta Box: 2,4,6
Race 4
4- Holdtheflight – He has finished in the money in six out of the last six races, winning four, drops in class today and has a trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has won three out of six starts.
5 – Large – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race, an allowance affair and now drops back down in class today and drops back in distance where he has never finished out of the money.
3 – He Hate Me – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, has a high % winning trainer, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
6 – Commissioner G – He won his last race at PARX Racing and high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
1 – Mr. Roundtree
7 – Geebert
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 – 4th race #3,4,5,6- 5th race # 3,4,8 – 6th race # 2,3 – 7th race #4,5,6
Race 5
3 – Wizard Serrat – He has won three out of his last five races at PARX Racing and has a high % winning trainer.
4 – Hidden Promise – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, has a trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (15 7-3-4) and a good 4F workout on Mar-18.
8 – Super Dude – He drops in class today and has a high % winning trainer who in the in last 14 days has finished in the money in seven out of eight starts, winning three.
Longshot:
6 – Hard Sting – He drops in class today and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
1 – Jump for Alex
Bet: None
Race 6
3 – Creme Caramel – She won her last race at PARX Racing and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Minding Millie – She drops in class today and has a high % winning trainer and jockey and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
6 – Halligirl – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Longshot:
4 – Don’t Tell Frankie – She has won 15% of the starts at PARX Racing and likes the distance finishing in the money in 75% of the races, winning 25% of the starts.
Alternate:
5 – Hey Dewzpots
1 – Lulinda’s Heart
Bet: None
Race 7
5 – Excess Demand – He is a first – time starter whose Dam has 2 winners from 2 starters and 1 stakes winner, and he has a decent workout on March 17th.
6 – Tatum – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, switches to a high % winning jockey and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
4 – My Imagination – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and has a good 5F workout on Mar-18.
Longshot:
1 – DeSantis – He has finished 2nd in his last two starts, the rail post is winning at a 22% clip and the trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (8 3-1-1).
Alternate:
8 – Talk With Me
2 – All in All
Bet: $.50 Pick 5 – 7th race #4,5,6 – 8th race # 2,7,8 – 9th race # 3 – 10th race #1,7- 11th #1,12
Race 8
8 – I Cross My Heart – She finished 3rd vs tougher in her last race, drops in class today and she has high winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Tara’s Talent – She has finished in the money in 59% of the starts, winning 14% of the races at PARX Racing and likes the distance has finished in the money in 60% of the starts, winning 13% of the races.
2 – Bucks Some – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Sense a Million– She has won seven races at PARX Racing and switches to a high% trainer.
Alternate:
6 – Starship Rogue
Bet: – $.50 Pick 4 – 8th race # 3,7,8 – 9th race # 3 – 10th race #1,7- 11th #1,12
Race 9
3 – Five Dreams – He has finished in the money in eight out of his nine starts, winning three of the starts, drops in class today and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
2 – Practical Way – He went to Laurel and had a disappointing race and now returns to PARX Racing where he is two for two and has a high % winning jockey.
1 – One More Scoop – He tried 1-70yrds and finished 7th in his last race and drops back to 6-furlongs which is more to his liking and has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
5 – A Dangerous Guy – He ran 2nd in his last race and has a high % winning jockey and a good 4F workout on Mar-18.
Alternate:
7 – Rob the Rich
4 – Jw’strickymischief
Bet: $10.00 Win #3- $3.00 Exacta: 3/1,2,5- Best Betting Race
Race 10
7 – Dreaming of Gerry – He won his last race at PARX Racing by 11- lengths and received a 101-speed rating, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he has a high % winning trainer.
1 – Hoopla – He has finished in the money in his last nine starts, winning three of the starts including his last and the rail post is winning at 22% clip.
10 – Brett’s World – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Roan Mountain – He won his last race at PARX Racing, and he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Alternate:
5 – Olympic Romp
Bet: None
Race 11
12 – Cartwheel – She ran 2nd vs tougher in her last race, drops in class today and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Boca Royalty – She is a closer who won her last race at PARX Racing and the distance will not be a problem.
8 – Knock Out Kid – She drops in class today and has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
6 – The Biggest One – She has won two out of her last four races at PARX Racing, drops in class today and has a trainer who wins 25% of the races when dropping a horse off claim.
Alternate:
7 – Adhwaa
5 – Reiterate
Bet: None
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1: 1 Mile 70 yards – Bias: Early Speed – 32% w2w – PP: Strong Rail Bias, 2-7 Mostly Fair, 8+ Penalty
2 – GUN COLLECTOR – track drops from Fair Grounds after posting TLRSP#, nice workout at FG since
7 – NORLANDER – most consistent in the group being forward, Reid and Pennington ITM 7/10
1 – CIRCLE ME MADDEN – showed enough LP in debut to threaten with a better start
6 – SHY DA RUNNER – not a fan of Penn shippers, but could be close enough to the front early to catch a piece
Suggested Wager: $1 Exacta: 7/1,2,4,5,6
Race 2: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 36% w2w – PP: Rail and 8+ Bias, 2-7 Fair
5 – THREE COMMA GLENN – been the betting favorite in all 4, won just once, works say maybe win 2 could be on the way
4 – MAGICNTHEMOONLIGHT – has a +9 2/4f edge, tie for the TLRSP# and should be as good, maybe better in 3rd off the sidelines
2 – PINE VALLEY – tied for the TLRSP, races once at PARX and won, note: Pennington stays on the 5 and jumps off this one
6 – RICH’S WAY – can’t leave this guy of my ticket, it’s in the name, could be better in the 2nd off the layoff
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 4,5/2,3,6/4/3,4,6,7
Race 3: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 36% w2w – PP: Rail and 8+ Bias, 2-7 Fair
2 – PROSPERA – noticed yesterday that Strong C-Zone and underlays won enough to pay attention
6 – BEYOND A MILLION – win or bust at Parx 12/5-0-0 – should probably be first or OTM
3 – CABRA CHICA – tr Angel Castillo Sanchez, winner 4/13 first after a claim – weight break, tr/jy combo winner ¾ together
4 – BLUNT FORCE – PARX 23/2-9-8 and Distance 16/1-4-5 – usually consistent from start to finish
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 2,3,6/2,6/2,3,4,6,7
Race 4: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 40% w2w – Strong Inside 3 Bias – 4+ Underperforms
4 – HOLDTHEFLIGHT – winner 2 easy races in a row, better fractions by about 1.7 seconds, PARX 7/4-1-1, drops after TLRSP#
3 – HE HATE ME – very consistent performer, just doesn’t win at the distance, 7/0-1-2
1 – MR. ROUNDTREE – every now and then pops a big one, maybe moving to the hot rail equals a big race here
5 – LARGE – we’ll take a shot here, distance 2/1-1-0, better ATB in last, SP# that could win, PARX 1-6-1
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 4/3,4,6,7/2,3,6/5,6
Race 5: 1 Mile 70 yards – Bias: Early Speed – 32% w2w – PP: Strong Rail Bias, 2-7 Mostly Fair, 8+ Penalty
3 – WIZARD SERRAT – ran considerably faster last out, prefer is its wet
6 – HARD STING – taking a huge class drop for Ness and Pennington
4 – HIDDEN PROMISE – 2nd start after being claimed by Ness, showed improvement in the first effort with the new trainer, maybe more today
7 – SOUPER FLY OVER – last race was a lot better than it looks with much faster fractions and better late pace
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 3,4,6/3,6/3,4,6,7,8
Race 6: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 40% w2w – Strong Inside 3 Bias – 4+ Underperforms
3 – CREME CARAMEL – all of nothing horse, better ATB and could up it again in 3rd start after a layoff
6 – HALLIGIRL – distance 4/2-2-0, top EP/LP Combo in the races as lone EP
2 – MINDING MILLIE – TLRSP# and drops for Ness/Silvera,, but PARX 5-0-0
5 – HEY DEWZPOTS – last work was strong, distance 5/0-1-3, Tom horse
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 2,3,6/3,6/2,3,4,5,6
Race 7: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 40% w2w – Strong Inside 3 Bias – 4+ Underperforms
5 – EXCESS DEMAND – Chad Brown, Manny Franco for this race only, $400k horse, what’s it doing here?
6 – TATUM – TLRSP by a lot, if one of the first timers doesn’t get him, lone speed for TC nominated horse
4 – MY IMAGINATION – strong workout at Belmont in last, needs to get off to a faster start
8 – TALK WITH ME – another first timer with decent works
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 5,6/4,5,6/1,4,5,6,8
Race 8: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 36% w2w – PP: Rail and 8+ Bias, 2-7 Fair
8 – I CROSS MY HEART – stronger late in last, a pair of maintenance works since for lone PC
4 – SENSE A MILLION – left arrow horse with some closing ability, but should be closer to the pace with this bunch
7 – TARA’S TALENT – has the most back class, 2nd off the bench should rival first up
2 – BUCKS SOME – 3rd up, sings of getting fitter with much stronger LP# in last
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick; 2,4,7,8/3,7/1,4,7/10,12
Race 9: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 36% w2w – PP: Rail and 8+ Bias, 2-7 Fair
3 – FIVE DREAMS – has a +8 4f edge, PARX 10/4-3-1, down from 75 NGSTK
7 – ROB THE RICH – has a +9 LP edge and the top EP/LP score, TLRSP# and is losing 7 pounds today
2 – PRACTICAL WAY – two for two at PARX, oh for 5 anywhere else, horse for the course
1 – ONE MORE SCOOP – win three of four with Silvestre Gonzalez, only didn’t win debut after bad start, back to Gonzalez today after 1 race hiatus
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 3,7/2,3,7/1,2,3,5,7
Race 10: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Tactical Speed – 50% w2w – Strong Inside 3, 4-7 Penalty, 8+ Biggest Bonus
7 – DREAMING OF GERRY – popped a triple digit speed figure in last, little skeptical with slower fractions, PARX 4/3-0-1, Distance 6/3-1-1
4 – KOBE B – lone PC horse, going long for the first time, should be forwardly placed and has late punch
1 – HOOPLA – another Tom horse, PAPRX 5/1-1-3, high floor, low ceiling horse with consistent efforts
10 – BRETT’S WORLD – small Z, 2SP# increases, Ness/Pennington – 31% winning combo
Suggested Wager: $1 Double: 7/3,6,7,8,10,12
Race 11: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 36% w2w – PP: Rail and 8+ Bias, 2-7 Fair
10 – NOTHINS FREE – improved fractions, strong mid move, PARX 5/2-0-1
12 – CARTWHEEL– Ness/Silvera – PARX 9/4-3-0, distance might be an issue 8/0-1-1
6 – THE BIGGEST ONE – claim and drop, not concerning because of purse, should be part of EP
8 – KNOCK OUT KID – 3rd off the sidelines and 2nd start off the claim for 31% tr Michael Moore
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 10,12/6,10,12/6,7,8,10,12
Parx Way to the Winners’ Circle Worksheet
