Parx Full Card Tips, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
$100 Challenge – Suggested Wagers for Parx on a $100 Budget
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Prairie Meadows
Parx Picks and Plays
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
1 – Run for Karl – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
6 – Young Squire – He is a first – time starter whose Dam has 5 winners from 5 starters and his breeding suits today’s sprint distance.
2 – Union Reward – He has finished in the money in three out of eight races at PARX Racing and has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Majestic Lion– He is a first – time starter, has a trainer who in the last 14 days has this record (6 2-1-0) and has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Sacrificial Stone
Bet: $.50 Pick 5: 1st race #1,2,3,6-2nd race #3-3rd race #1,3,5,6-4th race#2,5-5th race#13
Race 2
3 – Ebben – He has won two wins in a row now going for a hat trip, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and the trainer who in the last 14 days has this record (8 3-1-1).
5 – Neigh Dude – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, switches to a high % winning trainer and has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Sailor Again – He has won two out of the last three races and has a trainer who wins 31% of the races in the first start after claiming the horse.
Longshot:
6 – B B Bad – He ran 2nd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today and has a good 4F workout on May-12.
Alternate:
8 – Cumberland Avenue
4 – Bailey
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 –2nd race #3-3rd race #1,3,5,6-4th race#2,5-5th race#,5,9,13
Race 3
6 – Marion Grace – She has the highest last race speed rating, her early speed running style helps her chances and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
1 – Road to Dreams – She has a high % winning trainer, the rail post is winning at 23% clip and blinkers added today.
5 – Misbehaving Lady – She has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Escandalo – She won her last race at PARX Racing and has a trainer who in the last 14 days has this record (6 2-1-0).
Alternate:
2 – Colette’s Spirit
Bet: $.50 Trifecta: 1,5,6/1,5,6/1,3,5,6
Race 4
2 – Perfect Silent Cat – He won his last race at PARX Racing, has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Predominate – He ran 2nd vs similar in last race and has a high % winning jockey.
6 – Semper Fidelis – He won his last race at PARX Racing and at today’s distance.
Longshot:
4 – Tuanis – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating and has a trainer who wins 17% of the races in the first start after claiming the horse.
Alternate:
1 – Louie’s Law
Bet: – $.50 Pick 4 – 4th race # 2,5 – 5th race #13 – 6th race #3,4,5,6 – 7th #1,2,4,6
Race 5
13 – Boat’s a Rockin – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today, his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he has a good 4F workout on May-11.
9 – Lease – He finished 2nd in his last race only losing by a neck, has a high % winning trainer who wins 22% of races when taking a horse from a route to a sprint and has a good 4F workout on May-12.
5 – Strike Me Down – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
11 – Cartier Cat – He finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in his last race, switches to a high % winning trainer who wins 25% of races when taking a horse from a route to a sprint.
Alternate:
3 – Angelus Warrior
2 – Dramatized
Bet: $10.00 Win: #13
Race 6
5 – Tara’s Talent – She drops in class today, has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey.
6 – Boss Cara – She won her last race at PARX Racing and has a high % winning trainer.
3 – Broad Jumper – She finished in the money in seven out of her last eight starts, winning three of the races.
Longshot:
4 – Nurturing – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, can improve while returning to a sprint, she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
1 – Shesasuperfreak
2 – Cause I Said
Bet: $.50 Trifecta: 3,5,6/3,5,6/3,4,5,6
Race 7
1 – Sundria – She finished in the money in her three career races, winning one of the starts, the rail post is winning at 19% clip, and she switches to high % winning jockey.
6 – Broadwaycharlyrose – She finished in the money in five out of her seven career starts, winning one of the races and has the highest last race speed rating.
4 – Onthisharvestmoon – She likes the distance and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
2 – Kisses for Emily – She has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Chronology
Bet: – $.50 Pick 4 – 7th #1,4,6 – 8th race # 1,2 – 9th race #3,9- 10th #1,5,6,7,10
Race 8
1 – Midnight in Alaska – She has won two races in a row easily and is going for a hat trip and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Mia Tosca – She won her last race at PARX Racing and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
8 – Flashing Diamond – She finished in the money in eight races out of her last nine starts, winning three of the races.
Longshot:
4 – Vedareo – She has won two out of four career races, drops in class today and she has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
3 – Memento Mi
Bet: $1.00 DD: 1/3,9
Race 9
9 – Nimitz Class – He has won four races in a row, drops in class today, and has a high % winning trainer.
3 – Irish Cork – He has won two races in a row and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Simovitch – He has finished in the money in his last three races, winning one at PARX Racing and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
10 – Prince of Rain – He was only beaten only 1- length in last start and can improve while returning to a route.
Bet: $2.00 Win: #9
Race 10
6 – Shpilkes – He finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in his last race and a good 4F workout on May-12.
5 – Tuff Constitution – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey and a good 3F workout on May-16.
7 – Not Normal – He won his last race at PARX Racing and his breeding suggests he will like the grass as his Dam has produced 1 Turf winner.
Longshot:
1 – Urmizzenthepoint – He has a perfect record at PARX Racing, winning one out one start and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
10 – C C Goldrush
Bet: None
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 37% w2w – PP: Outside in Bias, 8+ Bonus
1 – RUN FOR KARL – been more consistent than the 2, Parx 9/0-2-4
6 – YOUNG SQUIRE – has the best works of the 1st timers in my view
4 – SACRIFICIAL STONE – has better works than the 3 – IMO
2 – UNION REWARD – has some early speed but regressed in last. Sofia and a weight break
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,4,6/1,6/1,2,3,4,6
Race 2: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 37% w2w – PP: Outside in Bias, 8+ Bonus
3 – EBBEN – TLRSP# back in NOV by a longshot, class dropper and track dropper from NYRA, April 28 bullet work at Parx says he likes the track
6 – B B BAD – drops in class, real nice work between races
5 – NEIGH DUDE – could be pacesetter and we’ve seen speed hold early on Mondays.
2 – SAILOR AGAIN – tough call over the 1, but much better EP/LP score and tr Angel Castillo Sanchez winner 5/16 first off the claim
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 1,2,3,5,6/6/2/4,9,12,13
Race 3: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 32% w2w – PP: Strong Inside 3 Bias, 4-7 better than 8+
6 – MARION GRACE – has a +10 EP/LP edge over the rest and by far best C-Zone
1 – ROAD TO DREAMS – showed some EP in debut, not sure what happened in last, a decent work since, could be pacesetter
2 – COLETTE’S SPIRIT – anybody’s guess on the next 3, we’ll take the best remaining c-zone
3 – ESCANDALO – tough call over the 5, but Z pattern with better EP and LP #s
Suggested Wager: $1 Trifecta Key: 6/1,2,3
Race 4: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Tactical Speed – 29% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Penalty
2 – PERFECT SILENT CAT – +9 EP/LP edge, resume says 2nd up should be as good or better than 1st off the bench
6 – SEMPER FIDELIS – Kendrick coming to ride this one, up in class, but well beaten by the 2 when they met
1 – LOUIE’S LAW – overlay with the top C-Zone score, strong rail with good LP
4 – TUANIS – TLRSP# and maybe better in the 3rd off the bench, hard call over the 5
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 2/4,5,9,12,13/4/1,4,6
Race 5: 7 ½ F Turf – Bias – No Races
13 – BOAT’S A ROCKIN – pretty aggressive EP edge, although, plenty of inside horse have enough speed to keep her wide,
9 – LEASE – nice overlay, Parx Turf 4/2-2, should run a similar race today in 2nd off the bench as first, missed by a neck at GP in last
12 – THE KING CHEEK – Silvera/Ness, lone turf trip didn’t go well, but off track 9/3-2-1 says he should like it, bullet and go work at Laurel of 4f in 47.2 says he is ready
4 – TOUGH TICKETS – hard call over the 5, fair value and strong C-zone and woke up in last with better # ATB
5 – STRIKE ME DOWN – top Turf Pedigree score, Pennignton/Ness –
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 9,12,13/9,13/4,5,9,12,13
Race 6: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 37% w2w – PP: Outside in Bias, 8+ Bonus
4 – NURTURING – cuts back from 1m to 6f where she is 4/3-0-1, going to be better in round two off the break
2 – CAUSE I SAID – TLRSP# with Paco, Peak number in last, tends to regress off a peak #
1 – SHESASUPERFREAK – Ness/Silvera, 3rs off the break, usually has strong EP and could be lone E with 2nd best C-Zone
6 – BOSS CARA – Top C-Zone, last race was even better than the win looks with faster early fraction
Suggested Wager: $1 Trifecta Key: 4/1,2,6
Race 7: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 34% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bias, 4-7 Small Discount, 8+ Fair
4 – ONTHISHARVESTMOON – third after a layoff, better first half numbers but slower fractions – best combo of sim#s – Lone E
1 – SUNDRIA – a little better EP numbers in last, but slower fractions
6 – BROADWAYCHARLYROSE – 2nd after a layoff, strong early with TLRSP# and could be better today
3 – CHRONOLOGY – Lone P and could be pacesetter, but that last race, ewww
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,4,6/1,4/1,3,4,5,6
Race 8: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 37% w2w – PP: Outside in Bias, 8+ Bonus
1 – MIDNIGHT IN ALASKA – TLRSP# with brilliant EP/MIDP#s – crushed in 2 of 3 since coming from GP
4 – VEDAREO – significant class drop, steady works since April 1st, Paco – let’s see if she is ready
8 – FLASHING DIAMOND -3rd after a layoff, bullet work between races, usually makes a blistering mid-move
2 – MIA TOSCA – undefeated in 3 at the distance and Parx – 8/3-2-2, third after a layoff
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,4/1,4,8/1,2,4,5,8
Race 9: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Tactical Speed – 29% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Penalty
3 – IRISH CORK – TLRSP# – two straight 100 – PACO – 2nd up record is a bit shaky
9 – NIMITZ CLASS – winner 4 in a row, crazy good EP#s through the first half mile of last, distance 4/3-0-0
10 – PRINCE OF RAIN – drops from a 100k NGSTK, just missed by a length, nice maintenance work between
5 – SIMOVITCH – could be lone E and gets courageous with the lead, especially if he takes it into the stretch
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 3,9,10/3,9/2,3,5,9,10
Race 10: 1 Mile 70 Yard Turf – Bias: No Races
5 – TUFF CONSTITUTION – a ton of good works getting prepped for first race since December – Top Turf Pedigree score by decent margin
13 – JACKSON ROAD – always a reason trainer AE horse and want in, debuted on grass at 5f and closed like crazy, tried dirt afterwards, best run was in the slop, tr Katleen Demasi must think he’s a turf horse
6 – SHPILKES – just missed on Parx grass in Debut, if PACO is on, you have to think he has a chance
3 – HOKU – BTN FAV at Keeneland last out, total track dropper
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 5,6,13/5,6,13/1,3,5,6,13
