Parx Full Card Tips, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
$100 Challenge – Suggested Wagers for Parx on a $100 Budget
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Thistledown
Parx Picks and Comments
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
5 – Lookinatlightening – She drops in class today, switches to a high % winning trainer and has a high % winning jockey.
6 – Little Doyle – She drops in class today and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Lipari – She is another one that drops in class today she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Only Girl – She drops in class today; the rail post is winning at a 20% clip and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
2 – Madison County
4 – Charly’s Choo Choo
Bet: $1.00 DD: 5,6/5,7
Race 2
7 – Cinnamon Dream – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and switches to a high % winning jockey.
5 – Advocate Harbor – She finished 3rd in her last race and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
2 – Misquillo – She drops in class today and she has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
6 – A Bit Bad N Boujee – She likes the track finishing in the money in 44% of the starts and likes the distance finishing in the money in 69% of the starts and switches to a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Iyiyi
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 –2nd race #5,7 – 3rd race #1,2,4 – 4th race ##1,2,7 – 5th race #7,8,11
Race 3
2 – Loose Goose – He ran 4th in his last race beaten only one length, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters is trained by Jamie Ness and ridden by jockey Ruben Silvera.
4 – Pine Valley – He finished 3rd in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Alta Fox – He can improve at the shorter distance and the rail post is winning at a 20% clip.
Longshot:
3 – Fictionalfairytale – He switches to a high % jockey.
Alternate:
6 – Rex Kwon Do
Bet: None
Race 4
1 – Mamma Mia Esterina – She has finished in the money in both of her career races, finishing 3rd in her last race and the rail post is winning at a 20% clip.
7 – Culpa Blanco – She has the highest last race speed rating, should improve while returning to dirt and she has a trainer who wins 25% of the races in the first route race he enters a horse in, and the longer distance may be a plus.
2 – Tempest Rising – She has finished in the money in two of her last four races finishing 4th in her last race after stumbling at the start.
Longshot:
4 – Bruno Barber Girl – She switches to a high % winning jockey, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and she has a Hot trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has finished in the money in three out of three starts, winning two.
Alternate:
6 – Tempted to Touch
Bet: – $.50 Pick 4 – 4th race ##1,2,7 – 5th race #7,8,11- 6th race #5,6,7 – 7th #8
Race 5
8 – People Force – He drops in class today, has a high % winning trainer who wins 27% of the races when shipping a horse in to race and switches to a high % winning jockey.
7 – Exit Right – He ran 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in his last race, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
11 – Sal N Louie – He came in from Golden Gate Fields and ran 2nd in his last race only losing by half a length after being extremely wide in the stretch.
Longshot:
4 – Notable Exception – He ran 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in last race and has a high % winning jockey.
Bet: None
Race 6
6 – Marvelousmoondance – He drops in class today and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
7 – Midnight Cat – He finished 5th in his debut race after having some problems during the race and is trained by Jamie Ness and ridden by jockey Ruben Silvera.
5 – Private Cabana – He has a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (5 3-0-0).
Longshot:
9 – American Lad – He had trouble at the break in his last race and did not finish well and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Caddy Man
Bet: $.50 Pick 5 – 6th race #5,6,7 – 7th #8 – 8th race # 1,3,5 – 9th race # 5,16 – 10th # 1,5,8
Race 7
8 – Minxzhippsdontleye – He tried turf in his last race and did not seem to care for it and can improve while returning to dirt, has a high % winning jockey and has a trainer who wins 27% of the claiming races he has an entry in.
9 – Secret Thunder – He ran 2nd in his last race and has a high % winning jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (9 3-0-1).
7 – Classy Union – He ran 2nd in his last race and has a high % winning jockey Sofia Vives.
Longshot:
2 – Alonzo Mosely – He switches to a high % jockey and has the highest last race speed rating.
Alternate:
6 – Wegottaguy
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 – 7th #8 – 8th race # 1,3,5 – 9th race #5,16 – 10th # 1,5,8
Race 8
1 – Captain Chazz – He finished 3rd in his last race, the rail post is winning at a 21% clip and he switches to a high % winning trainer.
5 – My Devils Child – He has finished in the money in his last four races, winning one and finishing 2nd vs similar in his last race.
3 – Souper Fly Over – He likes the track finishing in the money in 46% of the starts, winning 25% of the races and likes the distance finishing in the money in 53% of the starts, winning 33% of the races and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
8 – Social Group – He won his last race at PARX Racing and earned the highest last race speed rating.
Alternate:
7 – Indirectly
4 – Mach Trial
Bet: None
Race 9
16 – Steely Danza – He won his last race at PARX Racing, earned the highest last race speed rating and has a high % winning jockey.
5 – Keithsendshelloooo – He may improve in the 2nd start since layoff, Lasix is added and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Buffalo Shuffle – His has an early foot so he may improve at the shorter distance and has a bullet 4F workout on June-21.
Longshot:
6 – Admiral Abe – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Bet: $20.00 Win: #16
Race 10
5 – We Ready – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating and switches to a high % winning jockey.
1 – Current Hope – He has finished in the money in four out of seven starts at PARX Racing and the rail post is winning at a 21% clip.
8 – Skillful – He has won three out of his last five races at PARX Racing, winning the last one easily and has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
7 – Dangnabbit – He drops in class today and should improve while returning to dirt.
Bet: None
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed – 41% w2w – PP: Inside Out Bias
6 – LITTLE DOYLE – +10 Total Pace edge, biggest class dropper, third up, last was better by about 1 ½ seconds
5 – LOOKINATLIGHTENING – TLRSP#, small drop in class, improved in only 2nd up
3 – LIPARI – looking for reasons, small class drop, 2nd up, flips from turf to dirt
1 – ONLY GIRL – best combo of EP and C-Zone – rides the 20% winning rail
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 5: 5,6/2,5,7/2,4/1,2,4,7/1,4,7,8
Race 2 was supposed to be the 3, but I typed in the wrong number and didn’t notice until race 2
Race 2: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Tactical Speed – 30% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bias, 4-7 under Par, 8+ Big Bonus
7 – CINNAMON DREAM – better by more than 3 seconds in last – TLPRSP# – Distance 11/2-3-3
3 – IYIYI – going to take a flier, should be on the lead, when she has the lead can go w2w, Distance 3/2-0-0, any others 6/0-1-0
2 – MISQUILLO – aggressive drop in class in third after a layoff
5 – ADVOCATE HARBOR – +6 Total Pace edge,
Race 3: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed – 41% w2w – PP: Inside Out Bias
4 – PINE VALLEY – strongest combo of EP and Z-Zone, better through first half-mile last out
2 – LOOSE GOOSE – Silvera/Ness, 3rd Up, will be closing, BTN FAV – 29% for Ness
1 – ALTA FOX – has some early juice and drops to a level where he finished 3rd last try
6 – REX KWON DO – big improvement in second start after a layoff, considerable late race gains in last
Race 4: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed – 41% w2w – PP: Inside Out Bias
1 – MAMMA MIA ESTERINA – most lightly raced horse, could have most untapped potential
7 – CULPA BLANCO – could have an aggressive early speed edge in a field that wants to close
4 – BRUNO BARBER GIRL – switch to Paco should help, some good LP at times
2 – TEMPEST RISING – strong overlay with best C-Zone by a longshot
Race 5: 1 Mile 70 Yards Turf (Off) – 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed – 29% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Penalty
7 – EXIT RIGHT – concerned about the big lead he gave up late in last, fast work since – off 7/3-0-2
8 – PEOPLE FORCE -track dropper from GP and MNTH – early speed and Kendrick, love that combo
4 – NOTABLE EXCEPTION – sizable drop, 2nd up should be as good as the 1st, decent work between races in round two at Parx after coming in form CD
1 – ITWASTHEDEVILSIDEA – drops in class to a level where he was very competitive, OFF 6/0-3-2
Race 6: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 37% w2w – PP: Fairish 1-7, 8+ Bonus
7 – MIDNIGHT CAT – Ness 35% on the MSW drop, was well bet in debut at HINdy, decent Parx work
6 – MARVELOUSMOONDANCE – another MSW dropper, had 25 times to win, but off track might be best chance for the O to go – 6/0-3-2
3 – NICKY DA FOX – this one has to have a shot, +9 Total Pace edge and going to be out front.
5 – PRIVATE CABANA – should be part of the early race and only solid C-Zone score
Race 7: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 31% w2w – PP: Strong Inside Out Bias
8 – MINXZHIPPSDONTLEYE – strong EP and C-zone, OFF 4/2-1-0, lowest level of career
9 – SECRET THUNDER – just missed at this level last out with a 6f final time that was almost a second faster than previous 6f race – extra furlong should benefit
2 – ALONZO MOSELY – TLRPS# and drops in class – has some good LP at times
7 – CLASSY UNION – similar fraction at 7f as 6 1/2f in prior race
Race 8: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 31% w2w – PP: Strong Inside Out Bias
1 – CAPTAIN CHAZZ – has a 10 point EP edge on the 21% winning rail, 3rd up
8 – SOCIAL GROUP – SIM favorite, up in class of a w2w win, finished 2nd by 1 ½ lengths the last time he ran at this level
4 – MACH TRIAL – close at this level last out with better late times at 6 1/2f v 6 and 2/4F pace#s
3 – SOUPER FLY OVER – tough call over the 5, but a little better Parx, Distance and OFF numbers, weight break with Sofia
Race 9: 5 Furlongs Turf – OFF
16 – STEELY DANZA – +9 Total Pace edge, lone EP, 3SP# increases and TLRSP#
7 – BUFFALO SHUFFLE – last race showed early spark with fast fractions and big mid move – bullet work since says he will be fast today too
5 – KEITHSENDSHELLOOOO – has some early speed and back class, 1st Lasix today might be a difference maker
9 – THREEPETE – we’ll take a shot with the class dropper that has a win and third in two on an OFF Track
Race 10: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 31% w2w – PP: Strong Inside Out Bias
5 – WE READY – TLRSP#, missed by 1 ½ lengths at this level in last out
3 – SAPONARA – might not look like it on paper, but likely to be on the front with top Total pace
6 – MR. BRIGGS – really consistent performer – catching a weight break today and being noticeably better early in last
7 – DANGNABBIT – let’s go with Big Boopa angle – flashed speed in his last outing – cuts back from 1m to 7f
