Churchill Downs Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Churchill Downs
Racing Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks
Race 1
6 – American Raider – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, he has the highest last race speed rating and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
3 – Sixwillberich – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Quebrancho – He drops in class today and has a high % winning trainer who wins 100% of the races in the 2nd after race after claiming a horse.
Longshot:
4 – Coal Boss – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Master of the Nite
7 – Sky Key
Race 2-Female
3 – Silver Rose – She finished in the money in all four career races, winning one of the starts and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – La La Rose – She won her last race at Churchill Downs and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Marmalade Skye – She finished in the money in six out of the last seven races, winning one of the starts and he has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
4 – Mustang Lady – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
1 – Sister Kisses
2 – Sing a Little Song
$.50 Pick 4: #3,4,5,6/3,4,10,13/1,6/4,8,11 – Cost $48.00
Race 3
10 – Akinmusire – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, he is a closer so the extra ½ furlong may be a plus and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
4 – Purse Thief – He finished 3rd vs similar in only start at Churchill Downs, he has a trainer who wins 17% of the sprint races he has a horse in.
13- Brereton’s Baytown – He has the highest last race speed rating (tie), drops in class today
and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
Longshot:
3 – Concrete Cruiser – He finished 5th after steading hard and has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
7 – No Mor Stones
12 – Sweet Fantasy
Race 4-Female
6 – Patty Van Twinkle – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and she has the highest last race speed rating and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
1 – End of Innocence – She drops in class today; the rail post is winning at a 22% clip and she has a trainer who wins 20% of the sprint races he has a horse running in.
3 – Bold Appeal – She switches to a high % winning jockey and can improve at the shorter distance.
Longshot:
8 – Sweet Lilibet – She finished 3rd (on AW) in her last race and she has a trainer who wins 22% of the races when taking a horse from a maiden race to a maiden claiming race.
Alternate:
2 – Despo’s Dream
5 – Galadini
Race 5
1 – Phantom Ride – He has won three out of the last five starts, finishing 2nd only beaten a nose in his last start, he has the highest last race speed rating and has a bullet 4F workout on Jun-09.
6 – Inexorable – He finished in the money in eight out of the last ten races, winning three of the starts, drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
8 – Perfect Flight – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 22% of the claiming races he has an entry in, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, he has a high % winning jockey and this combo in the last 14 days has this record (6 3-1-0).
Longshot:
7 – Master Game – He finished 3rd in his last race as the favorite but has a trainer who wins 17% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Alternate:
5 – O P Firecracker
2 – Background
Race 6-Female
8 – Virasana – She drops in class today; her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – R Queen Candy – She finished 4th in her last race after being bumped at the start and getting a slow break, she has a high % winning jockey and a trainer and who wins 18% of the claiming races he has a horse entered in.
11 – Lite It Up Louie – She won her last race at Churchill Downs and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
9 – Sherbet Fountain – She finished in the money in the last two races, winning one of the races and she has a high % winning trainer.
$.50 Pick 4: #8/1,2/1,2,3,10/1,4,7,10 – Cost $16.00
Race 7
7 – Pure Force – He won his debut race at Churchill Downs she has a high % winning trainer and a good 4F workout on Jun-10.
1 – Discreet Mischief – He finished 2nd in her last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 31% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and, he has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Risk It – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey who in the last 14 days has this record (7 3-1-0).
Longshot:
6 – Mission Beach – He drops in class today and his best dirt speed is close to the Avg Winning Speed.
Alternate:
5 – Epic Battle
3 – Magic Grant
Bet: $14.00 Win: #7 – $10.00 Exacta: 7/1
Race 8
3 – Deer District – He finished in the money in nine out of the last ten races, winning two of the starts, finishing 3rd in his last race and he good 5F workout on Jun-07.
1 – Risk Manager – He likes the turf, finishing in the money in 45% of the races and winning 32% of the races and the distance will not be a problem as he has finished in the money 50% of the races, winning 38% of the races.
2 – Gray’s Fable – He finished 3rd in his last race, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
10 – Cathkin Peak – He comes in from California and drops in class today, he has a high % winning jockey and he has a bullet 5F workout on Jun-11.
Alternate:
7 – Reckoning Force
Race 9-Female
10 – Up On the Edge – She has a high % winning trainer who wins 25% of the races when taking a horse from a maiden race to a maiden claiming race and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
7 – Computadora – She finished 3rd vs tougher in her last race and drops in class today.
1 – Georgia On E’smind – She finished 4th in her last race after experiencing trouble as the favorite but has a trainer who wins 26% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and drops in class today.
Longshot:
4 – Chiquita Reina – She finished 2nd in her last two races.
Alternate:
2 – Naughty Miss
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 7th Race
7 – Pure Force
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 20% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Bad
6 – AMERICAN RAIDER – TLRSP# +4, some in race issues, small cut in distance helps
3 – SIXWILLBERICH – 2nd up should be a few points better than 1st and competes for the lead
1 – QUEBRANCHO – doesn’t look like it in the PPs, but should be forward and drops in class
2 – RIGHT ON TARGET – probably the most upside in the race making 2nd start
Race 2: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 25% w2w – PP: Rail Bad, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Small Discount, 8+ Best by a lot
3 – SILVER ROSE – rerun of her last race – 2nd up could have some regression
4 – MUSTANG LADY – will be closing – missed in lone CD race by just 3/4 of a length
5 – LA LA ROSE – plenty of headroom in just third career start – decent maintenance work between races
6 – MARMALADE SKYE – consistent performer that should be forward
Race 3: 5 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 25% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Fairish, 8+ Discount
13 – BRERETON’S BAYTOWN – 2nd race improvement makes him the winner
7 – NO MOR STONES – 3/3 first timer with good works, momma makes winners, tr Doug O’Neil 13% in debuts
10 – AKINMUSIRE – drops from a decent run in 250K NGSTK
3 – CONCRETE CRUISER – tough race in debut – a pair of maintenance works between, better today
Race 4: 5 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 25% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Fairish, 8+ Discount
1 – END OF INNOCENCE – if the lone CD fast trip is the benchmark – winner
3 – BOLD APPEAL – Pure MSW dropper – very likely pacesetter
6 – PATTY VAN TWINKLE – probable FAVORITE – was off more than a year, came back with PEAK# by a long ways – regression candidate
2 – DESPO’S DREAM – the other PURE MSW dropper with a pair of bullet works since her last race
Race 5: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 20% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Bad
8 – PERFECT FLIGHT – proper distance 5/3-0-1, just 1 win in 17 at any other -bad post
6 – INEXORABLE – class dropper – trio of decent works, 5 pound break, closer, CD 6/2-1-1
1 – PHANTOM RIDE – claim and rise – tried CD for the first time last out, best SP# – horse for the course? Bullet works at Hawthorne since
2 – BACKGROUND – going to be on the pace, 1 length early edge, strong C-Zone
Race 6: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 25% w2w – PP: Rail Bad, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Small Discount, 8+ Best by a lot
9 – SHERBET FOUNTAIN – some in race issues last out, resume says 2nd up could be like the last or major improvement, cut back to 6f from 7f helps
8 – VIRASANA – on paper, how does she lose? Never available for claim in first 4 races, big drop, very suspicious – something wrong with the horse?
11 – LITE IT UP LOUIE – TLRSP# +7 in MCL win and room to be better in second off the bench with solid maintenance work since
3 – ALMOND FUDGE – has a blowout CD win in the PPs – if she finds that form, pops at a big price in 3rd up
Race 7: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 10% w2w – PP: Small Rail Bonus, 2/3 Penalty, 4-7 Fair, 8+ A Touch Better than the Rail
7 – PURE FORCE – 2nd race improvement makes him a run away winner, although…
1 – DISCREET MISCHIEF – interesting that Geroux rides here for Brad Cox instead of the 7 – a mistake?
2 – RISK IT – maybe the only with a chance at upsetting either of the Cox horses
6 – MISSION BEACH – ran competitively in some big races – maybe 1st Lasix and Gelded brings him back to form today?
Race 8: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: Stalkers/Closers, 0 w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Not Good, 8+ Best
3 – DEER DISTRICT – top TOTAL PACE+7, first up record is concerning – Turf 5/1-2-2
1 – RISK MANAGER – last win was a fresh start off the bench at CD – just like today
2 – GRAY’S FABLE – 3rd after a layoff and last 3rd in 3 race cycle was leaps better than the 1st two
10 – CATHKIN PEAK – west coast horse looking for a new home w/ GG closing – drops from a G3 and has the class
Race 9: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 10% w2w – PP: Small Rail Bonus, 2/3 Penalty, 4-7 Fair, 8+ A Touch Better than the Rail
6 – QUEEN ANNA T – most upside horse in the race making 2nd start – down from Keen MSW 70k
7 – COMPUTADORA – down in class, cuts back in distance of some solid fractions in last
10 – UP ON THE EDGE – MSW dropper, 3rd up, last race was horrible, but distance offers hope 2/0-2-0
2 – NAUGHTY MISS – does have a CD run on the resume that is good enough to win here – solid work between races
