Belmont at the Big A Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Delaware Park – https://www.guaranteedtipsheet.com/index.aspx?afid=hrt
Free Belmont at the Big A Picks
Terry’s Picks:
Belmont at the Big A – 9 -11-25
Race 1-Female
6 – Memorized – May improve on grass; dam produced 4 winners from 6 starters and 2 turf winners. Trainer has a strong 31%-win rate at a route with first-time runners, and she recently posted a bullet 4F workout (Sep-05).
1 – Always Ready: Finished 3rd in last dirt race with the top speed rating; dam produced 4 winners from 6 starters, including a turf winner. Trainer/jockey combo stats (last 14 days): 6 starts, 4 wins.
5 – Bramble Blast – She drops in class today and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Alibi – She is a first-time starter, and she has high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
7 – Germantown
2 – Sweet Little Lila
Race 2-Female
1 – Grit N Glitter – Debuts here; Dam produced 2 winners from 2 starters and breeding favors this sprint distance.
8 – Stylish Gem – She can improve while trying dirt, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 26% of the Maiden Claiming races the 1st Time a he trains horse runs in.
3 – Big Heleonora – She has high % winning trainer Linda Rice, who wins 28% of the Maiden Claiming races the 1st time a horse she trains runs in and she has high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Mappy – She drops in class today and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
7 – Peace of Gold
$.50 Pick 4: 1,3,6,7,8/4,7/1A,8/1,2,5,6,8 – Cost $50.00
Race 3-Female
4 – Collect the Data – Winner of 2 straight races, holds the fastest dirt speed today, and is trained and ridden by a high-percentage team.
7 – Army Gal: In 6 career starts, she placed in 4 races. Back sprinting where she could improve, with a high-percentage trainer.
6 – Gone and Forgotten – She has won 2 races out of her last 3 starts, finishing 2nd in her last race and can go the distance.
Longshot:
2 – Sohana – She finished 3rd in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Jackson’s Dixie
Race 4-Female
8 – My Devine One: Finished 2nd against similar last race, shares fastest turf speed among today’s field, has a top trainer and jockey, and adds blinkers today.
1A – Makealittlelove – She is a first-time starter whose breeding suggests she will like the grass and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Miami Style – Finished poorly last time due to trouble during the race but placed 3rd in the previous race. As a closer, she may improve over longer distances, and both her trainer and jockey have high win rates.
Longshot:
4 – My Boston Beauty – May improve at the longer distance and has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Cara’s Dreamchaser
Race 5
8 – Devil in Disguise – Finished in the money 3 of 4 starts, has a win, top turf speed today, and both trainer and jockey have high win rates.
5 – Alexis Zorba – He finished in the money in his last 3 races, winning the last start and he has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Spoken Bluntly – He likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 100% of the races, winning 40% of the starts and distance will not be a problem as she has finished in the money in 100% of the races, winning 40% of the starts.
Longshot:
2 – Typhoon Fury – He finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in his last race, and he has a high % winning jockey and he has a good 4F workout (Sep-04).
Alternate:
6 – Jazz Buzz
$.50 Pick 4: 1,2,5,8/5/2,3,4,10/1,2,4,8,9,11 – Cost $48.00
Race 6
5 – Amundson – He has finished in the money in 8 races out of the last 10 starts at, winning four of the races, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % winning jockey.
4 – Shipsational – Beaten by 1-1/2 lengths last out, owns the top speed at this distance, and is trained and ridden by high-percentage connections.
3 – Glint – He won his last race, he has a high % winning trainer and jockey and he has a bullet 3F workout (Sep-07).
Longshot:
8 – Takeschargesmiling – He won his last race, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 28% of the races in the 1st after race after claiming a horse and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
1 – Ocala Dream
Bet: $20.00 Win & $30.00 Place: 5 – $10.00 Exacta Box:4/5 – $5.00 Exacta Key Box: 5/3,4,8
Race 7-Female
2 – Gallant Greta – She won her last race on the turf at today’s distance and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Red Burgundy – She likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 83% of the races, winning 33% of the starts and distance will not be a problem as she has finished in the money in 71% of the races, winning 29% of the starts.
10 – North End Lady – She won her last race at Saratoga, she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Tour Jete – She has won 2 races from 3 starts at Aqueduct she has a high % winning jockey and can go the distance.
Alternate:
9 – Firsttimeinforever
Race 8-Female
9 – Beira – She has finished in the money in his last 7 starts, winning 2 of the races, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
11 – Purloin – She has won 1 race out of 1 start at Aqueduct, trained high % winning trainer Linda Rice and ridden by jockey Dylan Davis.
8 – Cararra – She has a high % winning trainer, can improve while returning to dirt and she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Longshot:
2 – Baby Sassicaia – She has finished in the money in 5 races out of 6 career starts, winning her last race at today’s distance.
Alternate:
1 – Sight to See
4 – My Boston Beauty
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 6th Race – #5 – Amundson
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Closers, 1/6 w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Almost Fair
6 – MEMORIZED – Prat gets off the 1 and stays here – 2nd race improvement
1 – ALWAYS READY – better fractions last out – move inside and clean start is all is needed
5 – BRAMBLE BLAST – maybe first run on dirt – Top Total Pace +6.5
7 – GERMANTOWN – 2nd race improvement – needs a much better trip today
Race 2: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 36% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2+ A Little Better than Fair
7 – PEACE OF GOLD – top experienced horse – 3 good works since his last
3 – BIG HELEONORA – something went wrong in debut – decently bet – early speed and Kendrick
2 – ROUGE GRANDEUR – top rated 1st timer vs noes and a couple of maybes
1 – GRIT N GLITTER – another 1st timer with OK works
Race 3: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 50% w2w – PP: Outside In
4 – COLLECT THE DATA – TLRSP#+15 – bullet work since
7 – ARMY GAL – needed a rest – gone one – AQ 4/2-1-0
2 – SOHANA – ITM 6/7 at AQ – Prat stays here and gets off the 6
5 – JACKSON’S DIXIE – highly consistent performer – a lot of works since being claimed
Race 4: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bais: Closers, 11% w2w – PP: Rail Stinks, 2-7 Bonus, 8+ Stinks too
1 – NESHIKA – 2nd race parability vs all noes and drops in class
9 – HANNA’S HIDEAWAY – another 2nd race parability – maybe more distance helps
8 – MY DEVINE ONE – nice improvement in third race – better EP and LP
5 – CARA’S DREAMCHASER – going to be out front and Top Total Pace
Race 5: 6 Furlongs Outer Turf – Bias: Early Speed, 46% w2w – PP: Strong Outside In
8 – DEVIL IN DISGUISE – 3 of his 4 races would do here
1 – SPOKEN BLUNTLY – rail stinks – but should be better in 2nd up – ITM 5/5 at the distance
5 – ALEXIS ZORBA – going to be out front – left arrow – strong turf breeding
6 – JAVA BUZZ – another on the outside and could be pacesetter – drops
Race 6: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 38% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Discount, 8+ Big Bonus
5 – AMUNDSON – better ATB in last – winner 10/24 at AQ
3 – GLINT – huge win in last – tends to pair big runs
4 – SHIPSATIONAL – Top Total Pace +5 runs OK off he sideline – Cox 37% off the claim
8 – TAKESCHARGESMILING – not a lot of speed in here – should be out front and top C ZONE
Race 7: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bais: Closers, 11% w2w – PP: Rail Stinks, 2-7 Bonus, 8+ Stinks too2 – GALLANT GRETA – Top Total Pace – better ATB and Fractions – finally healthy – 2nd up
4 – TOUR JETE – winner of 2/3 at AQ has won from the front and back – Top C ZONE
3 – RED BURGUNDY – likely to be better in the 2nd up – potential lone E
10 – NORTH END LADY – Top PAR+ with the entries out
Race 8: 1 Mile – Bais: Early Speed, 33% w2w – PP: Strong Inside Out
1 – SIGHT TO SEE – TLRSP# +3 and gets the rail
11 – PURLOIN – won er only trip at AQ with ease – outside post hurts
9 – BEIRA – ITM 6/6 at AQ and runs well off the bench
4 – LOOKS FIRST – SIM FAV and Top Total Pace – better EP
