Churchill Downs Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Presque Isle Downs – https://www.guaranteedtipsheet.com/index.aspx?afid=hrt
Free Churchill Downs Picks
Terry’s Picks
Churchill Downs – 9-24-2025
Race 1–
7 – Lambo: Ran 2nd vs tougher in last race; Early speed running style helps chances; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % winning trainer.
1 – Honest Al: Finished in the money in 4 races out of 6 career starts. Trainer has a high win rate.
3 – Bob’s Carrot: Finished in the money in 3 races out of 4 starts at PARX Racing and can handle the distance.
Longshot:
5 – Master Mule: He ran 4th in his last race as the favorite but has a winning trainer who wins 20% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
6 – Putting Eagle
Race 2-Female
3 – Synoptic: Finished 3rd vs similar in only start after experiencing trouble; winning trainer who wins 20% of the maiden claiming races has a horse running in and has a high-percentage winning jockey.
11 – Wanna Go Home: Finished 2nd as the favorite last time; trained by a conditioner with a 22%-win rate when bringing back beaten favorites. Holds the fastest dirt speed in this field.
2 – Matty’s Baby: First time starter whose Dam has 2 winners from 5 starters, trained by a high-percentage winner who wins 20% of the maiden claiming races has a horse running in.
Longshot:
9 – Nonstop Vino: Early speed running style helps chances and switches to a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Authentic Charm
12 – Bistineau Beauty
$.50 Pick 4: 3,11 /,6,8/1,3,4,6,8/2,5,6,8,11 – Cost $50.00
Race 3-Female
8 – In Awe of Juju: Finished 2nd last race; Early speed running style helps chances and has the highest last race speed rating.
6 – Going Streakin: Placed in 2 of her last 3 races, with 1 win; trained and ridden by high-percentage professionals.
2 – I Am Beautiful: Drops in class today and switches to a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Sweet Note: Finished 2nd last out against similar, now with a trainer who wins 45% of second starts after claiming a horse and paired with a top-percentage jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Gold Del Mar
1 – Miss Tifeye
Race 4–
1 – Saint Shance: Trainer has a high win rate. Has a bullet 4F workout (Sep-12). Blinkers are added today.
4 – Restless Renegade: Drops in class today. Highest last race speed rating. Has a high % winning trainer.
6 – Shadow Coast: He has a high % winning trainer and jockey. Drops in class today. Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
8 – All the Luck: He has a high % winning trainer who wins 17% of the races taking a horse up one class and has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Soco and Lime
Race 5–
11 – Ludwig: Won last race. Has a high % winning trainer and jockey. Has a bullet 5F workout (Sep-16).
8 – Kunshan Bridge: Drops in class today; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie); He has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Magic Castle: Finished in the money in his last 5 starts, winning 2 of the races; and he can handle the distance.
Longshot:
2 – Sutherland: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; and he can handle the distance; and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Born Flawless
Race 6–
7 – McMusic: Finished in the money in 4 races out of his last 6 starts; Trainer and jockey has a high win rate.
1 – Tom Cat Tuesday: Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race; Drops in class today; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
2 – Jinxzi: Drops in class today; He has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Skyler: Early speed running style helps chances; Best dirt speed is close to the Avg Winning Speed; and he has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
6 – Wobbegong
$.50 Pick 4: 1,2,7/4,6,7/2,5,8/1,5,8 – Cost $40.50
Race 7–
4 – Dragoon Guard: Placed in all 8 career starts, with 4 wins; best speed at today’s distance; trainer and jockey have strong win rates. Notable 5F workout (Sep-16).
7 – Warrior Johny: Two wins at Churchill Downs; fastest dirt speed among today’s entrants. Trained and ridden by high-percentage winners.
6 – Best Actor: Won last race; Highest speed figure at today’s distance and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Bendoog: Placed in 6 of his last 7 races, with 1 win; Top speed figure at this distance and a strong trainer-jockey team.
Alternate:
8 – Notary
Bet: $10.00 Win: 4 – $10.00 – Exacta Box: 4,7 – $10.00 Exacta: 4/5,6,7,8 – $5.00 – Exacta Box: 4,6,7
Race 8-Female
8 – Big Trouble: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Caribbean Wind: Ran 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in last race, switches to a high % jockey and has a high-winning trainer.
2 – Party Pauline: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; and likes the distance; and has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
1 – Big Trouble: Ran 2nd in his last race, drops in class today and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
14 – Mila Candy
Race 9–
8 – Hey Boss: Won 4 races out of the last 6 starts; Has the best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and has a high-winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Forge in Fire: He has won his last two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Lemon Drop Shot: Has won 2 races out of the last 3 starts and has a high-winning jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Liam the Brave: He the highest last race speed rating and has a bullet 4F workout (Sep-09).
Alternate:
2 – People Force
7 – Huge Bigly
Best Bet of the Day at Churchill Downs – 7h Race – 4 – Dragoon Guard
Rich’s Picks
Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 25% w2w – PP: Rail Almost Fair, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Best, 8+ Discount
7 – LAMBO – TLRSP#+19 – Top Total Pace +8 – in all likelihood some regression – ITM 4/1-2-1
3 – BOB’S CARROT – should be out front – better EP – better be better in 3rd up
1 – HONEST AL – resume says will be better in round 2 off the bench
4 – MY OWN – lowest level of career – best C ZONE
Race 2: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 25% w2w – PP: Rail Almost Fair, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Best, 8+ Discount
3 – SYNOPTIC – 2nd race PARABILITY
6 – HAVE FAITH – Top Rated 1st timer vs all noes and 1 second race PARABILITY
8 – NEWS TOO SERIOUS – 2nd rated 1st timer – steady works
12 – BISTINEAU BEAUTY – MSW dropper that showed more speed in last
$0.50 Pick 4: 3,6,8,12/2,5,6,8/1,6/2,8,11
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 3,6,8,12
Race 3: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 25% w2w – PP: Rail Almost Fair, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Best, 8+ Discount
5 – SWEET NOTE – could be better in the 2nd start off the sidelines –
8 – IN AWE OF JUJU – TLRSP#+ 5 – 5 ways better and strong C ZONE – decent CD work
2 – I AM BEAUTIFUL – pacesetter w/ Top C ZONE –Irad riding a tell – 3 bad – 1 good race
6 – GOING STREAKIN – should also go forth at the start – Top Total Pace
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 2,5,6,8
Race 4: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 25% w2w – PP: Rail Almost Fair, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Best, 8+ Discount
6 – SHADOW COAST – could be lone E – +5 ES – Top Total Pace +6 – Top C ZONE w2w
1 – SAINT SHANCE – strong work between race – light came on? Drops off the claim
4 – RESTLESS RENEGADE – highly consistent so far – chance for career best in 3rd up
8 – ALL THE LUCK – a little better ATB in last and a maintenance work between races
$5 Exacta: 6/1,3,4,8
Race 5: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 25% w2w – PP: Rail Almost Fair, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Best, 8+ Discount
11 – LUDWIG – very strong EP edge – biggest class dropper and top PAR+ by an edge
8 – KUNSHAN BRIDGE – has CD success – 5/2-1-1 -maybe cut back in distance helps
2 – SUTHERLAND – resume hints at major 2nd up bump – Z pattern
7 – W W CRAZY – will be coming late – as consistent as they come with some pop
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 2,7,8,11
Race 6: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 25% w2w – PP: Rail Almost Fair, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Best, 8+ Discount
1 – TOM CAT TUESDAY – the only YES horse with TLRSP#+8 – has more upside
5 – OPEN COURT – highest rated 1ster vs 1 Yes, a few maybes, the rest noes – back bullet
10 – COLONEL COMPTON – 2nd rated 1ster with decent works
3 – SKYLER – SIM FAV with the +12 Top Total Pace
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,3,5,10/4,8/2,5,8,10/4,6,8
Race 7: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 3/10 w2w – PP: 2-7 All Winners
4 – DRAGOON GUARD – ITM 8/8 – with a strong work between races
8 – NOTARY – Top Total Pace +9 – bullet work between race but 8/0-0-0 at CD
6 – BEST ACTOR – Left Arrow Pacesetter with one of the best C ZONES
5 – BENDOOG – lone CD run probably good enough to get this one distance 3/0-3-0
Race 8: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf (OFF)
2 – PARTY PAULINE – maybe the most upside in just 4th stat – bullet work between races
5 – CARIBBEAN WIND – either of her two dirt races will do
8 – BIG TROUBLE – closer that is always close at the end
10 – DEBT FREE – 4 SP# increases in a row and strong work between starts
$5 Exacta Key Box: 2/5,8,10
Race 9: 1 1/8 Miles – Bias: Just 2 Races – 1 w2w – the other P
8 – HEY BOSS – SIM FAV – winner 4/7 at CD and just 2/21 elsewhere
4 – RUNWITHHEART – speed and has a win at CD where he got out front with career best – strong works prepping
6 – METATRON’S MUSE – working like his tail is on fire and fired off the bench at CD last time
2 – PEOPLE FORCE – taking a shot with the switch to Tyler G – winning at 25%
