Foreign Friday heads to Royal Randwick in Sydney, Australia, for one of the biggest nights on the international racing calendar, highlighted by The TAB Everest, featuring Hong Kong superstar Ka Ying Rising.
Five major races, world-class sprinters, talented younger horses and some formidable favorites create a fascinating handicapping challenge. But there’s one variable that could change everything: wet-track conditions.
Ka Ying Rising enters The Everest with an extraordinary record, but questions about his ability to handle soft going give Tom and Rich something to consider. Meanwhile, undefeated wet-track performers, improving runners and horses with proven soft-ground records could offer alternatives to some very short prices.
The card also features The Kosciuszko, Toyota Forklifts Sydney Stakes, Silver Eagle and King Charles III Stakes, where Autumn Glow looks particularly difficult to beat.
22-1 Tom brings traditional international form analysis, race trips, class, barrier trials and distance considerations. Rich’s Ranks focus on wet-track records, pace scenarios, improvement patterns, track and distance performance and longshot opportunities.
Five races. Two international superstars. And potentially one very important track condition.
Australian Insomnia Racing is back.
Race 5: The Kosciuszko – 11:50 p.m. ET
1200m – 3YO & Up Open
22-1 Tom’s Tips
14 – Cruizingthestars – With the move up in class today, she looks like a horse that is continuing to improve. She won last time at this track over 1000m, and the trainer added blinkers. She has only lost once in five starts and prefers soft going.
5 – Lisztomania – He won his last race, coming from seventh position early, with a strong finish. According to the charter, he won despite that day’s bias. He has done so on this track and at this distance.
2 – Chidiac – won her last barrier trial and comes into the race after four months off. Her last race, a listed race, was a mess. Before that race, she won three in a row, including a Group Three race. The outside draw is a concern, but a top jockey is on board.
Rich’s Ranks
14 – CRUIZINGTHESTARS – 3/3 of soft – weight break and fast 5f time last out
9 – LORD REMLAP – hard to argue with his record – 5/4-0-1 and won lone soft
2 – CHIDIAC – solid enough first up – basically All or Nothing
8 – CONSIDERED – clearly loves a wet track – 5/8 with a 2nd and 3rd on soft of heavy
Race 6: Toyota Forklifts Sydney Stakes – 12:25 a.m. ET
1200m – 3YO & Up Open – Group 2
22-1 Tom’s Tips
12 – Charm Stone – returned to the races with a third-place run in a Group One at Caulfield. She sat close to the pace, and I think she needed that start. Her only race on soft going, she won. Never races at this track, but I will take her at a price.
7 – Beadman – tough race last time, broke slowly, settled back of the field, and was asked but not a threat to win. Better was his first start of the season, running third in this race, a Group 2 at 1000m. Zac is aboard, and he will show better form today.
1 – Overpass – failed last time out in a Group One before his layoff. He returns to the races, winning both barrier trials. He is a twice Group One winner, but drew an outside position. He ran third in a Group One from the same position at Royal Ascot, though on a very different racetrack.
Rich’s Ranks
1 – OVERPASS – Post position sucks – but should be able to clear – winner 5/8 on soft
17 – MAL COUPE – bomb for sure – but if he is going to win it will be wet – 9/5-2-0 soft/heavy
12 – CHARM STONE – small drop from a Group 1 and 2nd up improvement candidate
2 – JOKERS GRIN – essentially all or nothing – but 2/2 of soft – will be rolling late
Race 7: The TAB Everest – 1:15 a.m. ET
1200m – Open – Group 1
22-1 Tom’s Tips
9 – Tempted – I will try to beat the favorite with this mare. She is on a winning streak and won last time at this track in a Group Two race. She is four for four on soft going. She has only one Group One win, but she is on a roll and has lost only once at this track in eight starts, with seven wins.
8 – Joliestar – ran second last time out and fourth in the barrier trial that included some of today’s runners, including Ka Ying Rising (who ran second). He ran third at Royal Ascot. He ran well last year in this race and is prepared to run big again.
1 – Ka Ying Rising – he won this race last year. He has been beaten twice (ran second). He is the top-rated horse in the world with twenty-two wins. Why do I have him third? He has never run on soft going, and I feel this is a huge wildcard and an upset of the big favorite.
Rich’s Ranks
1 – KA YING RISING – if he runs – yes – but soft is a ?
2 – JIMMYSSTAR – only one in the race with a reasonably close 6f time to Ka Ying Rising
9 – TEMPTED – 4/4 on soft with solid times
8 – JOLIESTAR – done some excellent work at the track and distance
Race 8: Silver Eagle – 1:50 a.m. ET
1300m – 4YO Open – Listed Race
22-1 Tom’s Tips
3 – Skyhook – he is coming off three in a row after winning last time in a Group Two at Rosehill. He took the lead and won by three lengths. He shortens up in distance, and in the one race at this distance, he won. In three tries at this racetrack, he finished in the money twice. He’s won on heavy going but only placed on soft going. Good post position and tactical speed, and he could run away from the field.
6 – Roulette King – has been racing in a while, but in five races he won four. He comes into the race with two barrier trials that were not great. He has never run on soft going. He has won at longer distances. He has a good start position and a good closing kick. Price horse.
7 – Apocalyptic – She ran third in her barrier trial with Ka Ying Rising. She has had some success on soft going but has not won. First time at this distance, but she has won at 1200m, 1400m, and 1600m. She is in a race she should improve on, but not a winning effort yet.
Rich’s Ranks
3 – SKYHOOK – more versatile than the co-favorite – should get a great set up
6 – ROULETTE KING – longshot shortening up a lot – by man does he fly late
9 – PLATINUM PANTHEON – just missed in last – extra ½ furlong today is a difference maker
1 – BEIWACHT – w2w to winners’ enclosure – wins if not challenged, folds late if he is.
Race 9: King Charles III Stakes – 2:35 a.m. ET
1609m – 3YO & Up Open – Group 1
22-1 Tom’s Tips
5 – Autumn Glow – She won her last two races. She won her last start from the lead, and when asked to break away from the field, she moved quickly. She has nine starts at this track and has won eight of them. She has won at this distance three times in three starts. She will sit behind the pace and bounce with 400m plus in the race. She is also six for six on the soft going.
6 – Pride of Jenni – she won last time in a Group Two at Caulfield. She has run well on soft going, but only two wins from eleven starts. She is a confirmed front-runner, and a sensible pace in this small field will only increase her chances, but my top choice is the one to beat.
2 – God’s Window – won last time at this track in a Group One at this distance, coming from way back in the field. He will have some pace to run at, but this smaller field concerns me, so no better than a placing for me.
Rich’s Ranks
5 – AUTUMN GLOW – winner 7/7 on a wet track
3 – JUST FOLK – probably going to race forward and try to hang on
1 – CEOLWULF – comparable mile times to the favorite – but not a fan of wet
Where Tom and Rich Agree
Race 5 – Cruizingthestars
Both handicappers put #14 Cruizingthestars on top in The Kosciuszko.
Tom sees a lightly raced horse continuing to improve after winning four of five starts, while Rich focuses on her perfect soft-ground record, weight advantage and fast five-furlong performance last time.
Both also include Chidiac, whose return from a layoff creates some uncertainty but also the possibility of another strong effort.
Race 6 – Charm Stone and Overpass
Tom takes Charm Stone on top, believing she needed her return race and could improve second-up.
Rich ranks Overpass first, despite his difficult post position, based partly on his strong soft-track record.
Both horses appear in both sets of selections, but the handicappers disagree on which offers the better opportunity.
Rich also takes a significant longshot swing with Mal Coupe, whose wet-track record makes him interesting if the surface remains soft.
Race 7 – Can Anyone Beat Ka Ying Rising?
This is the central question of the entire card.
Tom is willing to take a stand against the superstar with Tempted, who has won all four starts on soft going and seven of eight at Randwick.
Rich puts Ka Ying Rising on top, recognizing his extraordinary ability, but shares the concern about an unfamiliar soft surface.
Both also respect Joliestar, while Rich adds Jimmysstar because his six-furlong times are among the closest to those of Ka Ying Rising.
The favorite may simply be too good.
But if the wet going matters, this race becomes much more interesting.
Race 8 – Skyhook and Roulette King
The Silver Eagle produces the strongest agreement on the card.
Tom and Rich both rank:
#3 Skyhook first.
#6 Roulette King second.
Tom likes Skyhook’s winning streak, tactical speed and favorable starting position.
Rich sees a versatile horse capable of getting the right trip.
Both also recognize Roulette King’s late-running ability and potential to produce a price.
Race 9 – Autumn Glow
There isn’t much disagreement about the most likely winner of the King Charles III Stakes.
Both Tom and Rich put #5 Autumn Glow on top.
Tom points to her remarkable Randwick and distance records, while Rich emphasizes her unbeaten record on wet tracks.
With Pride of Jenni likely to provide the early pace, the question is whether Autumn Glow gets the opportunity to make her customary move and put the race away.
On the supplied form, she looks extremely difficult to oppose.
Australian Insomnia Racing: Two Superstars and One Big Question
The Everest and King Charles III Stakes give us two of the most compelling favorites on the international racing calendar.
Ka Ying Rising brings an extraordinary record and world-class sprinting ability.
Autumn Glow brings a remarkable combination of track, distance and wet-ground success.
But the two races present different handicapping questions.
Autumn Glow has already demonstrated that she can handle the conditions.
Ka Ying Rising still has something to prove if the ground is soft.
And that uncertainty is exactly why we handicap the races instead of simply accepting the shortest price.
Tom is taking a swing against the Everest favorite.
Rich respects the superstar but is watching the surface.
Elsewhere, both handicappers see opportunities with Cruizingthestars, Skyhook and some interesting wet-track longshots.
Five major races.
Randwick under the lights for American viewers.
Foreign Friday. Australian Insomnia Racing. Let’s find some winners.
