Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Turf Paradise Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: LA Downs
Turf Paradise Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
7 – Sweet Lady Lana – Ran 3rd vs in her maiden race and earned the highest last race speed rating – Her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – Well bet in debut – The trainer wins 29% of the time 1st time after claim.
3 – Wicked Weave – Drops in class today – Gets a weight break and the trainer wins 20% when his entry goes from Maiden to Maiden Claiming
5 – Malibuena – Blinkers added today, and the trainer wins 33% when putting Blinker back on Jockey Harry Hernandez in last 7 days (27 10-5-3)
2 – Arizona Brew – switches to a high % winning trainer Robertino Diodoro and switches to a high % winning jockey Lindey Wade – Blinkers added today
Alternate:
1 – Party Police
6 – Lip’s of Wine
Race 2
6 – Rideo – Came in from Northern California after winning his last race there and won the next race at Turf Paradise at today’s distance – The trainer wins 27% of the races when bringing back a Winner of their last race – His best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters t Jockey Harry Hernandez in the last 7 days has this record (27 10-5-3).
3 – Fire When Ready – Won two of his last three races – He likes the track, distance and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
2- Provost – Finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in last race and Tries turf for the second time – Likes to go to the front so his early speed running style helps chances.
4 – Tiger by His Tail – Ran 2nd vs tougher (on Dirt) in last race – Highest last race speed rating – Drops in class today – Sharp 4F workout (Jan-20)
Alternate:
1 – Mr. Pickles
Race 3
1 – Blame It On Kitty – Ran 3rd in her last race at Turf Paradise – The trainer wins 52% of the races when dropping off a claim. She has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
2 – Angelo’s Pride – Ran 2nd in last race at Turf Paradise and at today’s distance. Jockey Harry Hernandez in the last 7 days has this record (27 10-5-3).
3 – Blue Boy Who – Comes in from Sunland Park to try Turf Paradise – The trainer wins 45% when shipping in to race – Trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-2-0).
7 – Jen Lors Legacy
Alternate:
4 – Perfect Come Back
Race 4
2 – Big Stretch – Won last race at Los Alamitos closing and winning at 6-furlongs and now goes a mile which appears to fit her running style – She has the highest last race speed rating- The trainer wins 100% of the races after Dropping in class off a win.
8 – Midnight Garden – Ran 2nd in last race – The trainer wins 29% of the races first race after a claim. High % winning Jockey who is winning at a 22% clip.
1 – Spun Line – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race and switches to a high % winning and the trainer wins 32% when bringing a Beaten favorite back to race.
5 – Paige Runner – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and the best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters
Alternate:
4 – La Castiglione
7 – Shoe Game
Race 5
1 – Callmejessiejames – Has won two out three races at Turf Paradise and finished five out six races in the money at today’s distance, winning three – Her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
7 – Miss Kitness – Ran 2nd in last race at Turf Paradise -The trainer wins 31% 1st race after claiming a horse.
3 – Lila’s Lucky Lady – Three 3rds out of the last four races
4 – Silly Notion – Finished in the money four of the last five races – The trainer wins 31% when bringing a beaten favorite back to run
Race 6
6 – Union Brother – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race -Has the highest last race speed rating – The trainer wins 47% 2nd race after claiming a horse -Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
4 – Atta Boy Billy – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race – Has a high % winning trainer and Jockey ñ ñ The Trainer in the last 14 days has this record (9 3-1-2).
2 – Lolly Express – Finished 3rd vs similar (on Turf) in last race and should improve while returning to Dirt – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
8 – Lover Boy Bob – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race at Turf Paradise and at today’s distance.
Alternate:
3 – Mister McLean
5 – Marden
Race 7
2 – Talkin Malice – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race at today’s distance earning the highest last race speed rating (tie) – Trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (6 2-3-0).
8 – Imperator – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race, has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and switches to a high % winning trainer whose entries win 29% of the races 1st race after a claim.
10 – Autism Siblings -Tried turf without success and now should improve while returning to dirt – drops in class today – He likes the track finishing in the money in five out of five races, winning two of the races and the distance finishing in the money in four out of five races, winning two of the races.
3 – They’re Grrreat – Won last race Turf Paradise and the trainer wins 21% with Claim repeater– Good workout on 12Jan at Tup 4f ft :47.3 H 4/24
Alternate:
5 – Twilight Rider
7 – Night’s Watch
Race 8
8 – Flower Beach – Had trouble in her last race finishing a disappointing 6th but has excuses Hopping at the start and coming 6-wide into the turn. He likes the track finishing in the money in nine out of nine races, winning two of the races and the distance finishing in the money in eleven out of twelve races, winning three of the races.
4 – Thetrailerguy – A Bob Dillion horse, has been knocking on the door – Ran 2nd in last race earning the highest last race speed rating and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
9 – We’re Just Sayin – Likes Turf Paradise finishing in the money in 50 % of his races, winning two – The distance should not be a problem – Jockey Harry Hernandez in last 7 days (27 10-5-3).
7 – Monumental Seven – Ran 2nd in last race nine months ago but has been several workouts – the trainer in the last 14 days has this record (3 2-0-0).
Alternate:
5 – Themanbehindtheman
1 – Bob’s All In
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 6 ½ Furlongs: 58 Races, 42 won by speed, 24 w2w – PP: plays fair
7 – Sweet Lady Lana – TPLRSP#, Tr: J Won 30% off 1st Claim, 20 off or less w STP, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, Top EP and EP/LP combo by a decent margin
2 – Arizona Brew – upgrade to J L Wade, should be involved in the early pace, 2nd off a layoff
5 – Malibuena – well bet last out, better 5F fractions last out, top jock H Hernandez
4 – Workin Ninetofive – should improve 2nd off bench, deceptively better fractions last out, Top Pedigree
3 – Wicked Weave – bullet work on Jan 28, 15 f works getting ready – Emerald Announcer Braddick
Race 2 – 1 Mile Turf: 37 Races, 25 won by speed, 11 w2w – PP: inside 3 bias and 8+ (only 6 here)
6 – Rideo – won 7/11 @ distance, 1 for 1 @ TP, Top Pedigree, 4 SP# Increases
4 – Tiger by His Tail – top EP by a huge margin, LRSP>PAR, 3 SP# Increases
3 – Fire When Ready – 6 of last 8 races were HQ, LRSP>PAR, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions
1 – Mr. Pickles – 3 of 4 wins on Turf, last 4 on turf, finished no more the 2 lengths behind the winner
Race 3 – 1 Mile: 74 Races, 50 won by speed, 13 w2w – PP: Small Outside to in Bias
1 – Blame It On Kitty – 3rd off a layoff, 1st off the claim Tr: J Evans, 24%, drop off claim 9/17 winners, 5 SP# Increase
6 – Upper Room – Top Pedigree, 3 SP# Increases, 225 cost, top EP/LP combo
4 – Perfect Come Back – ITM 6/12 on fast Dirt, 15/27 @ distance, 2nd best EP/LP combo
9 – Check and Raise – 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, much better fractions last out,
Race 4 – 1 Mile: 74 Races, 50 won by speed, 13 w2w – PP: Small Outside to in Bias
1 – Spun Line – Top Pedigree, DROP 33-27.3, Fastest 1/4 Fractions, 1st w/ Tr: J Evans – 24%,
8 – Midnight Garden – 1st of the claim – Tr: J Wong 30%, 7(2-3-0) @ TP ITM 6/8 @ Dist 3ws
5 – Paige Runner – 4th off a layoff, 4th was best last 4RC, strong fractions in last, BTN Fav, tr: Chad Story 7/20 winners next out.
2 – Big Stretch – top EP/LP combo, LRSP>PAR, 4SP# Increases, might need one
Race 5 – 7 ½ Furlongs Turf: 26 Races, 16 won by speed, 9 w2w – PP: 1-7 fair, big drop 8+
7 – Miss Kitness – Top EP and EP/LP Combo, Top Pedigree, LRSP>PAR, 1st off claim – 31% trainer Juan Silva
1 – Callmejessiejames – 6(3-1-1) @ Distance, 3 SP# Increases,
4 – Silly Notion – BTN FAV, Tr: Jeffrey Metz – 31% Rebound
3 – Lila’s Lucky Lady – some early speed, 2 thirds in 2 TP races, ITM 6/12 @ Distance
Race 6 – 6 ½ Furlongs: 58 Races, 42 won by speed, 24 w2w – PP: plays fair
6 – Union Brother – 10(4-4-0) @ Distance, 20 off or less w STP, LRSP>PAR, SP# Increases, #1 EP/LP Combo
2 – Lolly Express – ITM 8/10 @ Distance, top late pace #s,
4 – Atta Boy Billy – J/T Combo Daniel Vergara/Jose Silva, Jr .53+ ROI, BTN FAV JSjr 26%
3 – Mister McLean – Tr; Wade Rarick won 5/10 2nd off claim, 4 SP# increases
Race 7 – 1 Mile: 74 Races, 50 won by speed, 13 w2w – PP: Small Outside to in Bias
2 – Talkin Malice – tie for TPRSP, 20 off or less w STP, 3SP# Increases, Terry Horse
8 – Imperator – 1st off the Claim 30% Tr; J Wong, 20 off or less w STP, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, Won/Alex Cruz hit at 31%, 2.06+ ROI
5 – Twilight Rider – BTN FAV, Jeffrey Metz hits @ 32%, w/L Wade +.65 ROI+
7 – Nights Watch – been off since July 4, 2018, strong works getting ready, Top Pedigree
10 – Autism Siblings – Only DROP 15.4-11.9
Race 8 – 7 ½ Furlongs Turf: 26 Races, 16 won by speed, 9 w2w – PP: 1-7 fair, big drop 8+
4 – Thetrailerguy – TPLRSP#, 20 off or less w STP , LRSP>PAR, 3SP# Increases
8 – Flower Beach – top EP/LP Combo, ITM 9/9 @ TP, 11/12 @ Distance, 2nd off a layoff should be better in Race 2
9 – Were Just Sayin – Top Late Pace #s by a decent margin, better fractions in last
1 – Bobs All In – 3 SP# Increases, ITM 9/14 @ TP, 7/12 @ Distance, solid late pace #s
