Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Parx Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Picks: Penn National
Parx Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
2 – Speedy Zephyr – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race.
6 – Merging Traffic –Highest last race speed rating – Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters.
5 – Kane – Switches to a high % winning jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (22 6-4-1) – Lasix added.
3 – Winners Win – Has some early speed.
Alternate:
4 – Ruby Dooby Doo
Race 2
1 – Makeajoyfulnoise – Ran 2nd vs similar in last – Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters – Trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (12 5-1-2).
2 – Sea Fret – Won last race at PARX – Has the highest last race speed rating – The trainer wins 26% of the time when bringing a Maiden winner back to the races – Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (14 4-1-3).
5 – Above the Limit – High % winning trainer and Jockey – Should improve at the shorter distance -Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (3 3-0-0).
7- Lady Bernadette – Returning to the distance of her last win at PARX Racing.
Alternate:
3 – Gavichi
Race 3
3 – Flight Risk – Won two out of the last three races at PARX and at today’s distance – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
7 – Off the Meds – Likes PARX and the distance – Blinkers added today.
2 – Spring Emperor – Finished in the money at today’s distance 57% of the time and at PARX 52% of the time. Drops back in class where he can be competitive.
1 – Louie’s Wish – Has plenty of speed and should improve at the shorter distance.
Alternate:
6 – Dennard
4 – Blugrascat’s Smile
Race 4
4 – Enforcer – Has the highest last race speed rating – High % winning trainer who wins 23% of the time 2nd race off of a layoff – Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters.
6 – Jean Valjean – Has a good jockey and trainer – Sire offspring’s wins 1st time Starters – Dam has 1 winner from 1 starter – Breeding suits today’s sprint distance
1 – Raging Tempest – Drops in class today and switches to a high %winning jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (22 6-4-1).
2 – Et’s Toy Soldier – Has a good trainer, jockey and bullet workout on 09Feb Parx 5f ft 1:00.3 Bg1/15.
Alternate:
7 – Issuing Justice
Race 5
6 – Kodapendent – Finished in 50% of the races at PARX race – Drops in class today – Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters
3 – Tequilamademedoit – Ran 4th in his last race after coming into the stretch 5-wide – Has the highest last race speed rating.
7 – Fictionalfairytale – Early speed running style helps chances in this wide-open affair.
2 – Nicky Da Fox – May improve while returning to a route – Best Dirt speed is faster than the Avg Winning Speed.
Alternate:
5- Outworknforakiss
1- Late to the Show
Race 6
2 – Peach Perfect – Ran 2nd vs similar in only start – The trainer wins 24% of the time when using 1st time Lasix – Can improve at the longer distance Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (14 4-1-3).
4 – Argentina Girl – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race -The trainer wins 50% of the time when using 2nd time Lasix Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (22 6-4-1).
1 – Eight Danzas – Finished 3rd vs similar in her last race receiving the highest last race speed rating – Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters.
5 – Pageant Princess – Has a good jockey, trainer, and decent workouts.
Alternate:
6 – Hold Me Closer
3 – Imagism
Race 7
8 – Get the W – This veteran horse won last race at PARX earning the highest last race speed rating.
9 – Hizaam – Drops in class and has a bullet workout on 22Feb Prx 3f ft :36.4 B 1/7.
6 – Champers – Likes the distance winning 50% of her starts – May improve at the shorter distance Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (3 3-0-0).
7 – Tactical Plan – Trouble last couple of races which affected his races – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters
Alternate:
4 – Loverboy Lou
Race 8
3 – Cartouche – Won two out of the last three races receiving the highest last race speed rating – Has a high % winning trainer.
2 – Shirley Greene – Won last three races in a row at PARX – Switches to Jockey Ruben Silvera who in the last 7 days has this record (22 6-4-1)
1 – Blue Paynt – Finished 4th after having trouble in her last race – The rail post is winning at 20% clip – Drops in class today.
4 – Centre Court Champ – Ran 2nd vs tougher in last race – Drops in class Trainer in the last 14 days has this record (6 2-0-2).
Alternate:
5 – Disco Deja Vu
6 – Tiz Gracie
Race 9
2 – Fleeterthan – Ran 2nd in last race ñ Hot Trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (3 2-0-0).
6 – Lil Tater – Broke slowly and finished 3rd vs similar in last race receiving the highest last race speed rating (tie).
7 – Closet Shopper – Won last race at PARX receiving the highest last race speed rating. Trainer/Jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (7 3-1-1)
1 – Rolls Royce Joyce – Bob Dillion horse as she has run 3rd four races in a row.
Alternate:
3 – Solid Gold Dancer
5 – Bravo Regina
Race 10
4 – Mach Trial – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race winning the race before at PARX.
7 – Manolete – Finished 2nd in last race – Has the highest speed figure at today’s distance – best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
10 – Drena’s Bullet – He has a high % winning trainer and high % winning jockey who have in the last 7 days has this record (14 4-1-3) – Drops in class today and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
2 – Mission Wrapitup – Drops in class today – The trainer wins 21% when going Sprint-Route-Sprint Jockey in the last 7 days has this record (3 3-0-0).
Alternate:
9 – Don’t Poke the Cat
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1- 1 mile 70yards, 47 races, 33 won by speed, 13 w2w – PP: 1-3 and 8+
6 – MERGING TRAFFIC – open race might as well take a price with a shot, could be better in 3rd off the bench, TLRSP#, much better 6f fractions in last, QTA ran Feb 22
2 – SPEEDY ZEPHYR – weight break, strong 2/4/LP improvement in last, should be better in 2nd start off the sidelines
1 – NATAVALLI’S KNIGHT – top EP#s by a lot, 2 good works since last race on Jan 12, Fastest 1/4 Fraction LAST, TOP PEDIGREE
5 – KANE – track drop Aqueduct to Parx, DROP 43-19, 1st Lasix, Strong LP #s by a wide margin
Race 2 – 5 ½ furlongs, 21 races, 16 won by speed, 7 w2w -PP: mostly fair
1 – MAKEAJOYFULNOISE – lone win came vs fast pace, likely gets that here, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, should be better in 2nd off the break, 1st off the claim 128/412 tr J Ness
2 – SEA FRET – going to press the pace, much better fractions in last, 3SP# Increases, QTA ran Feb 9
5 – ABOVE THE LIMIT – top EP#s, Fastest 1/4 Fractions, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, could be better in 2nd after a layoff
3 – GAVICHI
Race 3 – 1 mile 70yards, 47 races, 33 won by speed, 13 w2w – PP: 1-3 and 8+
2 – SPRING EMPEROR – Fastest 1/4 Fractions, but also has a stalking win, top EP/LP combo
1 – LOUIE’S WISH – TOP EP#s, if he has the lead at 4f, will be hard to beat
6 – DENNARD – all or nothing at Parx 8/3-0-0, but 4/3-0-0 at distance, can run right off the pace or way back, but will likely need a slower than average pace
7 – OFF THE MEDS
Race 4 – 6 furlongs, 57 races, 37 won by speed, 14 w2w -PP: rail just 1 win, 2+ play fair
4 – ENFORCER – Top Pedigree, strongest 2/4/LP #s in its last, should be better in the second start after a layoff, TLRSP#
2 – ET’S TOY SOLDIER – could be best of the 2 fist time starters, some good works 27f of works since December 29
7 – ISSUING JUSTICE – Fastest 1/4 Fractions, improved from race 1 to 2, TC Drop to MSW to MCL, 34-26
6 – JEAN VALJEAN – the other 1st time starter, a couple of good works, but not as strong as #2, but really not a lot to beat in here
Race 5 – 1 mile 70yards, 47 races, 33 won by speed, 13 w2w – PP: 1-3 and 8+
6 – KODAPENDENT – vulnerable favorite, Top Pedigree, DROP 30-25, does have some early ability
1 – LATE TO THE SHOW – good 2/4f improvement in first off the bench, could be better in 2nd off the bench, tie Top EP/LP#s, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions
3 – TEQUILAMADEMEDOIT – resume says better in 2nd after the break, 3SP# Increases, Denzel Horse on fast 11/0-4-4
7 – FICTIONALFAIRYTALE – lightly raced, ran wide last, top EP#s, improved across the board in last
2 – NICKY DA FOX – Fastest 1/4 Fractions, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions
Race 6 – 1 mile 70yards, 47 races, 33 won by speed, 13 w2w – PP: 1-3 and 8+
2- PEACH PERFECT – 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, Top Pedigree, 1st Lasix, TOP LP#s
4 – ARGENTINA GIRL – Top EP#s, Tie Fastest 1/4 Fractions, Jy: Juan Vazquez win 4/7 2nd Lasix, 3rd off Layoff
1 – EIGHT DANZAS – Tie Fastest 1/4 Fractions, TLRSP#, 4f/LP improvement, Only DROP 42-34
3 – IMAGISM – first time starter without a lot to beat in here
Race 7 – 7 furlongs, 30 races, 17 won by speed, 8 w2w -PP: 4-7 best, small rail penalty, all the rest about the same
8 – GET THE W – won his last by 6 ¼, across the board in-race improvement, LRSP>PAR, 6 SP# Increases
9 – HIZAAM – Parx 10/2-2-1, Distance 6/2-1-1, bullet work on Feb 22, DROP 26-21, TIE TOP PEDIGREE
1 – KEEPING THE PEACE – coming in from Laurel, track DROP, Biggest DROP 32-21, TIE TOP PEDIGREE
2 – HARD WEST – tough call over #4, but if he gets an easy lead, could be hard to catch, by far top 4f #s
Race 8 – 6 ½ furlongs, 21 races, 13 won by speed, 9 w2w -PP: rail bonus, inside 3 bias, 4+ same
2 – SHIRLEY GREENE – undefeated in 3 at Parx, could catch a lot of early speed and run by late, top LP#s by a lot and can sit off the pace too
1 – BLUE PAYNT – Parx 6/3-3-0, DROPS 55-30, speed on high win rate rail, 2 good works since last
4 – CENTRE COURT CHAMP – also undefeated at Parx 2/2 both w2w, DROP 40-30, first since Aug 7, OK Works
3 – CARTOUCHE – Fastest 1/4 Fractions, Top Pedigree, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, ½ length from winning 3 in a row at Parx
Race 9 – 7 furlongs, 30 races, 17 won by speed, 8 w2w -PP: 4-7 best, small rail penalty, all the rest about the same
2 – FLEETERTHAN – weight break, can win from middle or front, Fastest 1/4 Fraction LAST 10, jy: Andy Hernandez and Michael Moore 0.87 ROI, TOP EP/LP by a lot
7 – CLOSET SHOPPER – Tie TLRSP#, won PARX debut in last, strong J/T combo F Pennington/Jamie Ness, Top Pedigree, QTA fan Feb 16
6 – LIL TATER – ITM 9/11 at PARX, Tie TLRSP#, QTA Ran Feb 9,
3 – SOLID GOLD DANCER – Ties Fastest 1/4 Fractions, should be close to the pace
Race 10 – 7 furlongs, 30 races, 17 won by speed, 8 w2w -PP: 4-7 best, small rail penalty, all the rest about the same
4 – MACH TRIAL – Top EP/LP combo by a decent amount, ITM 18/29 at PARX, 9/10 at Distance
7 – MANOLETE – 2/4f improvement, Tie Top Pedigree, weight break
2 – MISSION WRAPITUP – going to ignore last, but not a lot of EP in here, TOP EP#s, lookout if he gets the lead, trainer Joeseph Taylor 37/162 route to sprint
1 – ALEJANDRO’S TEAM – tough call over the 3, but AT showed 4/LP#s improvement and LAWN BOY Declining form
3 – LAWN BOY
