Aqueduct Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free Aqueduct Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Aqueduct – 11-07-2024
Race 1
4 – Moore’s Law – He won his last race at Saratoga, has the highest last race speed rating and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Costa Terra – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 23% of the races when taking a horse from a sprint to route, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Summer Cause – He won his last race at Monmouth Park and has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
3 – Army Times – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey and this combo in the last 14 days has this record (6 3-0-1).
Alternate:
2 – Barese
Race 2
6 – America’s Honor – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, he has the highest last race speed rating and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
8 – Salvation – He can improve while returning to dirt, he has a high % winning and trainer who wins 22% of the races when taking a horse from turf to dirt and has a trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-2-0).
2 – Social Hour – He can improve while returning to dirt and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
3 – My Mitole – He has a trainer who wins 25% of the races in the 1st race at route a horse he trains runs in and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
4 – Brave Bear
7 – Tapizar’s Temper
Bet: $1.00 Exacta Box: #2,3,6,8
$.50 Pick 4: #2,3,6,8/1,4,6,7/3,5/4,5,8 – Cost $48.00
Race 3-Female
7 – Miss Lao – She won her last race at Aqueduct, and she has a high % winning trainer who wins 30% of the allowance races he has a horse competing in and she has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Maggy’s Palace – She ran 2nd in her last race, she has the highest last race speed rating and she has a high % winning jockey.
6 – Brown Suga Babe – She has won two out of her last three races and she has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
4 – Bustin Bay – She likes Aqueduct finishing in the money in 65% of the races, winning 31% of the starts, and distance will not be a problem as he has finished in the money in 61% of the races, winning 28% of the starts and she has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
9 – Mosienko
Race 4-Female
5 – Naughty Destiny – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last start and she has a high % winning trainer who wins 29% of the races in the 1st race after claiming a horse and she has a high % winning jockey.
3 – Majulu – She has a high % winning trainer and blinkers added today.
7 – Cerretta – She has a high % winning trainer and her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
Longshot:
1 – Artistic Success – She has a high % winning trainer who wins 22% of the maiden claiming races he has a horse running in and the rail post is winning at a 22% clip.
Alternate:
2 – She’s a Natural
Race 5
8 – Confabulation – He ran 3rd in his last race, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a good 4F workout on Oct-31.
4 – Always Be Smart – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 22% of the races in the 2nd race after claiming a horse and he has a high % winning jockey.
5 – Wajda – He drops in class today, he has a trainer who wins 29% of the races in the 1st race at route a horse runs in, blinkers added today and he has a good 4F workout on Nov-02.
Longshot:
9 – Just Be Honest – He finished 3rd in his last race and his early speed running style helps his chances.
Alternate:
3 – True Connection
$.50 Pick 4: #4,5,8,9/3,5,7,9/8/1,2,5,6,7,8 – Cost $48.00
Race 6-Female
5 – Vegas Weekend – She finished in the money in the last five races, winning one of the starts and she has a high % winning jockey.
9 – Jackson’s Dixie – She ran 2nd vs tougher in her only start, and the distance will not be a problem.
3 – Latest Edition – She has the highest last race speed rating and she has a trainer who wins 19% of the claiming races he has a horse running in.
Longshot:
7 – Bank On Anna – She has a high % winning jockey, drops in class today and blinkers added today.
Alternate:
8 – Mon Petit Chou
6 – Boss Lady Kim
Race 7-Female
8 – Rhiannon – She was beaten only 1-1/2 lengths vs tougher in her last start as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 23% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, she has a high % winning jockey and a bullet 4F workout on Nov-01.
6 – Revalita – She has finished in the money in five races out of the last seven starts, winning one of the starts and she has a high % winning jockey.
9 – Vino Rouge – She has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a good 4F workout (Nov-01).
Longshot:
4 – Can’t Fool Me – She finished in the money in the last five races, winning two of the starts and she has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
2 – Roswell
Bet: $16.00 Win $26.00 Place: #8 – $3.00 DD: 8/1,2,5,6,7,8
Bet: $10.00 Exacta: 8/4,6,9
Race 8
7 – Spoken Bluntly – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and he has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Wind Dancer – He ran 2nd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today and the rail post is winning at a 22% clip.
6 – Vitalize – He ran 2nd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Allofasuddenlee – He drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 26% of the races when taking a horse from a maiden to a maiden claiming race.
Alternate:
8 – Price Is Truth
2 – Scherzando
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 7th Race – #8 – Rhiannon
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 1 1/8 Miles – Bias: Early Speed, 25% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Discount, 4+ Bonus Outside In
4 – MOORE’S LAW – TLRSP#+ 7 – right distance 4/2-1-0 others 3/0-0-1
1 – SUMMER CAUSE – very consistent performer – does well off the sidelines – top TOTAL PACE +13
3 – ARMY TIMES – plenty of early speed with a 33 Q30 score
6 – COSTA TERRA – speed and fade with a solid work between races
Race 2: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 31% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair, 8+ Small Discount
3 – MY MITOLE – MSW dropper that just needs to rerun his debut
6 – AMERICA’S HONOR – missed last out – closer getting extra distance today – helpful – TLRSP+4
2 – SOCIAL HOUR – the other MSW dropper – return to Irad and dirt is the difference
8 – SALVATION – another that goes back to dirt where he ran better in his debut
Race 3: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 31% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair, 8+ Small Discount
6 – BROWN SUGA BABE – real wide trip in last – cut back in distance helps
1 – MAGGY’S PALACE – should be plenty better in 2nd up and more distance helps
4 – BUSTIN BAY – drops from a NGSTK and plenty of decent works prepping
9 – MOSIENKO – tough call over the 7 – switch to Irad helps
Race 4: 6 Furlongs Outer Turf – Bias: Early Speed, 36% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Best, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Small Discount
3 – MAJULU – inside speed with a 30 Q30 scrore
5 – NAUGHTY DESTINY – very consistent performer – a lot of good works prepping
2 – SHE’S A NATURAL – TLRSP#+5 and MSW dropper
1 – ARTISTIC SUCCESS – maybe most upside in 2nd start regular improvement
Race 5: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 31% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair, 8+ Small Discount
4 – ALWAYS BE SMART – TLRSP# +13 – and drops in class
8 – CONFABULATION – early speed – climbing the class ladder and gets Irad
5 – WAJDA – going long for the first tile – 30% angle for Chad Brown – alpha for him vs 24% overall
9 – JUST BE HONEST – really – you can pick any of the next 4 horses – been closest in the last 3
Race 6: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 35% w2w – PP: Outside In – 8+ Way Best
3 – LATEST EDITION – TLRSP# +8 – SIM FAV
9 – JACKSON’S DIXIE – just missed in her last – better in 2nd up
8 – MON PETIT CHOU – just needs to run two back – maintenance work to fit up
1 – SHE CAUGHT MY EYE – if a win is coming -will be on fast – like today and drops off the claim
Race 7: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: Stalker/Closers, 15% w2w – PP: Inside three best with Dominant rail, 4+ Similar Discount
8 – RHIANNON – bullet work and drops from a G3
6 – REVALITA – highly consistent – will be coming and you know Irad will give a solid ride
2 – ROSWELL – maybe too much early speed as a left arrow horse – serious back class
10 – AWESOME CZECH – been close – but this is her right distance 4/3-0-0 – now no win in 6 at any other length
Race 8: 6 Furlongs Outer Turf – Bias: Early Speed, 36% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Best, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Small Discount
7 – SPOKEN BLUNTLY – consistent and could be at her best in the 3rd start after a layoff – Top TOTAL PACE +5
3 – HARD PAR – MSW dropper with the TLRSP#
2 – SCHERZANDO – better 2/4f pace and room to be better in 2nd up
1 – WIND DANCER – MSW dropper with a decent series of works prepping
