Belmont at the Big A Picks, Predictions & Best Bets | Terry’s Tips and Rich’s Picks

Belmont at the Big A features an 8-race card loaded with uncertainty, including five maiden races where anything can happen. With fast dirt and firm turf conditions expected throughout the day, races should play true, but with so many runners still searching for their first win, chaos is always one good break away. Today’s Smart Sheets analysis dives beyond traditional handicapping to identify horses most likely to be forward early, uncover Total Pace and C-Zone advantages, compare simulated odds against the morning line, and highlight Profile of a Winner indicators that can reveal hidden value. Maiden races are where overlays are created and betting mistakes are made. If you’re looking to find live runners, identify mispriced horses, and capitalize on chaos before the odds shift, this is the type of card that can produce significant opportunities.

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Race 1

Terry’s Picks

1. 7 – Island Charm: Finished in the money in the 3 races out of 3 starts at Aqueduct; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2. 5 – Hip Hop Dancer: Drops in class today; Can improve while returning to a route and dirt.
3. 4 – My Girl Aubree: Finished in the money in the 3 races out of 6 career starts; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
4. Longshot: 8 – Grit N Glitter: Has the highest C-Zone #; Has a high % winning jockey.

Rich’s Picks

1. 4 – MY GIRL AUBREE – speed with the 7 – better C ZONE and bigger drop
2. 7 – ISLAND CHARM – out front too – TLRSP#+3
3. 1 – SUCCESSFUL AGENDA – 2nd race Parability – untapped potential
4. 3 – ALL FUN N GAMES – top total pace – needs a fast start

Suggested Bet: $0.50 Trifecta Box: 1,3,4,7

Race 2

Terry’s Picks

1. 6 – Atarah: Ran 2nd in last race; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
2. 2 – My Magic Wand: Finished in the money in the 6 races out of 9 career starts, Winning 4 races; Drops in class today; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
3. 1 – The Big Calhouna: Switches to a high % winning jockey; Rail post is winning at a 24% clip; Drops in class today.
4. Longshot: 3 – Artemis Sound: Won 3 races out of 5 starts at Aqueduct; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Suggested Bet: $.50 Pick 4: 1,2,3,6/4,7/1,4,5,6/7,9,11 – Cost $48.00

Rich’s Picks

1. 2 – MY MAGIC WAND – catch me if you can horse with top C ZONE
2. 6 – ATARAH – 1 length LS edge with better EP/FRACTIONS in last – 2nd up
3. 3 – ARTEMIS SOUND – forget last – Flavien – Pletcher – 3/5 at AQ and 1/9 anywhere else
4. 1 – THE BIG CALHOUNA – won 3/7 at AQ and 2/15 elsewhere

Suggested Bet: $0.50 Pick 4: 2,6/4,5,7,8/1,4,5,8/3,4,11

Race 3

Terry’s Picks

1. 4 – Mursal: Won last race at Aqueduct; Highest last race speed rating; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
2. 7 – Coquito: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race, winning the previous race; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
3. 8 – Baby Sassicaia: Won 2 races out of the last 3 starts, Finishing 2nd in last race; Can handle the distance.
4. Longshot: 6 – Pens Street: Drops in class today; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

Suggested Bet: $20.00 Win: 4 – $10.00 Exacta Box:4/7 – $10.00 Exacta: 4/6,7,8 – $5.00 Exacta Box: 4,7,8

Rich’s Picks

1. 5 – DESPO’S DREAM – standout C ZONE with EP and drops – pairs wins
2. 7 – COQUITO – biggest in race edge – 1 length LS – Top SIM SP# and TOTAL PACE
3. 4 – MURSAL – SIM FAV – Linda Rice owned & trainer – not in for a price – she wants to keep
4. 8 – BABY SASSICAIA – most value in a chaos race

Suggested Bet: $0.50 Trifecta Box: 4,5,7,8

Race 4

Terry’s Picks

1. 1 – Quiet Power: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race as the favorite; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 20% of the races when bringing a horse back; Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Has a high % winning jockey.
2. 4 – C J Star: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3. 5 – Authoritative: First time starter whose Breeding suggests he will like the grass; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4. Longshot: 6 – Sidearm: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Strong jockey stats.

Rich’s Picks

1. 1 – QUIET POWER – YES horse with the big Inside Edge
2. 8 – DONNADOYAWANNA – 2nd Race Parability well past par
3. 5 – AUTHORITATIVE – Prat and Brown with a 1st timer with strong turf breeding
4. 4 – C J STAR – YES horse – just his 3rd race – more improvement coming

Suggested Bet: $0.50 Trifecta Box: 1,4,5,8

Race 5

Terry’s Picks

1. 11 – Athena’s Fury: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie); top trainer/jockey.
2. 9 – Roasted Reds: First time starter whose Breeding suggests she will like the grass; Strong jockey stats.
3. 7 – Mia Sophia: Finished 3rd in last race; Lasix added and has a high % winning jockey.
4. Longshot: 4 – Intothewilderness: Beaten only 3/4 lengths in last start; Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie); Strong trainer and jockey stats.

Suggested Bet: $.50 Pick 4: 4,7,9,11/2,3,5/3,7/5,11,12,13 – Cost $48.00

Rich’s Picks

1. 4 – INTOTHEWILDERNESS – YES – SIM FAV and 1 Length Top TOTAL PACE
2. 11 – ATHENA’S FURY – another YES with 3rd race bounce back ability
3. 3 – VALIANT DIVA – another YES with better EP/FRACTIONS – 3rd up and 3 SP# Increases
4. 7 – MIA SOPHIA – Maybe -3 – but only pure MSW dropper

Suggested Bet: $0.50 Pick 4: 3,4,7,11/2,3,5/3,9/2,10,11,13

Race 6

Terry’s Picks

1. 3 – Judge Boushay: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2. 2 – Liam’s Legacy: Has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Best Dirt speed is close to the Avg Winning Speed; Lasix added.
3. 5 – Term Premium: First time starter who has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4. Longshot: 1 – Nordic Fyre: Finished in the money in 1 race out of 2 career starts; Has a high % winning jockey.

Rich’s Picks

1. 2 – LIAM’S LEGACY – YES horse with the 3 – big time 2nd Race Parability
2. 3 – JUDGE BOUSHAY – the other YES horse with TLRSP# +8
3. 5 – TERM PREMIUM – Top Rated 1st and the rest are noes and Maybe for Brown and Prat
4. 1 – NORDIC FYRE – 3rd race bounce back ability well past par

Race 7

Terry’s Picks

1. 7 – Getting Serious: Finished in the money in all 4 career starts, running 2nd vs similar in last race; Strong trainer and jockey stats; Good 4F workout (Jun-07).
2. 3 – Right Timing: Won last race at Aqueduct; Strong trainer and jockey stats; Good 4F workout (Jun-05).
3. 4 – Bella Knows: Ran 2nd vs tougher in last race; Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4. Longshot: 5 – Mermaid: Won last race at Aqueduct; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Rich’s Picks

1. 9 – SIOUXSE –YES horse with the 3 – same upside – better post 3SP # increases – drops
2. 3 – RIGHT TIMING – tied most upside in the race and SIM FAV – Top TOTAL PACE
3. 8 – INTEGRITY – standout C ZONE on the lead – can never leave them off
4. 4 – BELLA KNOWS – Brad Cox horse – only 4th start with 1st time Lasix

Suggested Bet: $5 Exacta Key Box: 9/3,4,5,8

Race 8

Terry’s Picks

1. 5 – Authentic Legend: Finished 2nd vs similar in last race as the favorite; Has a trainer who wins 25% of the races when bringing a horse back; Has a high % winning jockey.
2. 11 – Visible: Switches to a high % winning jockey; Can improve while trying grass as the Dam has 3 winners from 4 starters and 3 Turf winners; Strong trainer stats; Lasix added.
3. 12 – Highlands Way: Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 23% of the races when taking a horse from a Maiden-to-Maiden Claiming. Has a high % winning jockey.
4. Longshot: 13 – Mount Errigal: First time starter whose Breeding suggests he will like the grass; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 22% of the Maiden Claiming races; Has a high % winning jockey.

Rich’s Picks

1. 11 – VISIBLE – 2nd Race Parability a little past PAR – pure MSW dropper
2. 2 – FLEET N READY – toss out the last – maybe 4 and all the turf races fit – biggest drop
3. 13 – MOUNT ERRIGAL – got to have the 1st timer versus all noes and few maybes
4. 10 – DAW SAMAA – longshot SIM FAV – Top TOTAL PACE and C ZONE – why not?

Suggested Bet: $3 Exacta Key Box: 11/2,5,10,13

Best Bet

Terry’s Best Bet of the Day at Belmont at the Big A: Race 3 – #4 Mursal