The Breeders’ Cup brings together some of the best horses in the world, but international form doesn’t always translate neatly to American racing. Different surfaces, pace scenarios, running styles and levels of competition can make evaluating overseas runners one of the biggest handicapping challenges of the weekend.
That’s why we do Foreign Friday all year long.
22-1 Tom and Rich break down the international runners across Friday and Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup cards at Keeneland, looking beyond the finishing positions to evaluate their form, strengths, weaknesses and chances against American competition.
Tom brings his international racing expertise, while Rich adds his own perspective on speed, class, distance, form cycles and potential wagering value.
Some international runners are legitimate win contenders. Others may be overmatched. And a few could be dangerous longshots.
Friday, October 30
Race 3: Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance Stakes
5 – Nuit d’éclair
Tom’s Analysis: Had traffic issues last time; not the ideal trip. Good cover but didn’t finish. Ran for third. Ran well at Royal Ascot, finishing fourth. In this race, a good chance and certainly bred to go farther.
Rich’s Comments: Doesn’t have a signature win – but is always close.
9 – Dee’s Funny Girl
Tom’s Analysis: Ran a good third last time against a fair group and was third at Dundalk on the all-weather. Her best race was at Royal Ascot, where she ran second in the Princess Margaret. She should be covered up to her best run and produce at the top of the stretch. Possible.
Rich’s Comments: Rerun the Princess Margaret Japan Cup S.-G3 at Ascot would work – does seem to prefer good footing.
Race 6: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf Sprint
1 – Moonrise
Tom’s Analysis: A three-race winner, including the Group 3 Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot. Also won at Kempton on the all-weather and in her first race. Beaten in the Cheveley Park. This horse has no early speed. Her best races are run from midpack or the rear, closing quickly at the end.
Rich’s Comments: A pair of G3 wins – one on AW – 4th to Libertango and Sun Goddess last out.
3 – Libertango
Tom’s Analysis: Won a maiden at Leicester, the Albany Stakes (G3) at Royal Ascot, the Lowther Stakes at York, and finished second to Sun Goddess in the Cheveley Park at Newmarket. Has above-average speed but will sit behind the pace with cover. Will pick it up late but has not shown a burst in earlier races. The effort against Sun Goddess is key.
Rich’s Comments: The one to beat – only lost to Sun Goddess and Senorita Bonita – better not dwell at the start here though.
5 – Mussab
Tom’s Analysis: Won his last three races, including a win at Newcastle on the all-weather and races at Newmarket and Ayr. Third at Royal Ascot. Has good tactical speed, breaks well from the gate, and should sit off the pace. A longshot against this bunch.
Rich’s Comments: 3 race win streak and might benefit from extra distance here – did get handily beat by a few others in here on August 21st.
6 – Velozee
Tom’s Analysis: A winner of two in Ireland and ran at Ascot with a third in the Princess Margaret Stakes (G3). This horse has no early speed and will need to settle early and make one run. If the early leader melts down, he will be closing. An outside chance at best.
Rich’s Comments: Does draw Tyler G and if she is going to win this is the distance 3/2-0-0 all others 4/0-0-3.
7 – Crownbreaker
Tom’s Analysis: Only won once, at Deauville in a listed race, in seven starts, and has placed in group races. Has run at five furlongs and has not done well in the only six-furlong race. Running style should sit midpack looking for cover, but she has shown some early speed. Strictly a longshot at best.
Rich’s Comments: Has fast enough 5f times to make it happen – if the last race is right – 6f in 58.1 – that’s got to be wrong.
8 – Force Noir
Tom’s Analysis: Earned multiple wins and placings at Naas, Dundalk, and Newmarket. Ran very poorly at Royal Ascot. Will be forwardly placed, but his best runs come when he sits off the lead. A grinder and less pace-dependent, so a good pace will help. More of an in-the-money bet than a winning one.
Rich’s Comments: Just missed in G1 last out in a reasonable time – shortening up helps.
9 – Final Objective
Tom’s Analysis: Won the Group 2 Flying Childers Stakes at Doncaster and finished second in the Gimcrack Stakes (G2) at York. Runs at a moderate pace and will sit near the back. A fast pace will benefit this horse. Must be considered.
Rich’s Comments: Same I don’t think it’s real 6f in 58.1 race as the 7 – if so, both will finish well ahead of the rest – otherwise, last 3 are workable – first 3 not so much.
11 – Hell of A Spin
Tom’s Analysis: Only win was at Hamilton in a maiden race. Ran second or third in four other races at Newmarket (G1), York (G2), Goodwood (G3), and Newcastle on the all-weather. Has run best when on or near the lead, setting up an early position. Could control the race from the lead, but his best opportunity will be to press the pace and make a late move.
Rich’s Comments: Light resume and light breeding – maybe ITM.
12 – Primetime Emmy
Tom’s Analysis: A French-based runner with two wins, including a maiden at Deauville and a Group Three win at Chantilly. Should be close to the lead and, with a few lengths to go, strike with the tiring leaders. Has a steady, determined kick to finish strongly.
Rich’s Comments: Decent class rating in last G3 win – both good trips and times fit – taking.
15 – Adonius (Also Eligible)
Tom’s Analysis: Won four times and finished second twice in six starts. Won the Indian Summer Stakes at Keeneland in his last start after races at York, Goodwood, Chester, and Musselburgh. Will be midpack after a slow start. Needs an advantageous position to finish. Has the benefit of a Keeneland run and won. Consider with running style if you think the speed will collapse. Contender if draws in.
Race 8: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
1 – Green Empress
Tom’s Analysis: In her first four races, all at the Curragh, she ran first in a Group Two and recorded three seconds in maiden and group races. Last run was a win at one mile at Longchamp in a Group One. Sits behind the pace and finishes strongly.
Rich’s Comments: Hasn’t done anything wrong – but hasn’t beaten Sun Goddess in 3.
3 – Curracloe
Tom’s Analysis: Two runs and two wins, both in September. Won by three-plus lengths in her first start and by over two lengths in her latest start, the Group Three Darley Fillies’ Stakes. Appears to be a strong closer. Must consider winning.
Rich’s Comments: 2 easy wins – the last a high rated G3 – more distance may help – Contender.
6 – Alwaysanangel
Tom’s Analysis: Two wins from four starts, including two thirds. Her third at Cheveley Park was a good effort in her first Group One start. Will need a fast early pace to have any chance at the end.
Rich’s Comments: No signature win – behind – solid G3 run behind Sun Goddess and Libertango.
9 – Sun Goddess
Tom’s Analysis: The best 2yo in Europe, having won her last five races after finishing second at Royal Ascot. Beat the colts in the Group One Phoenix Stakes. Won the Moyglare by over six lengths. This is her first mile race, but that shouldn’t be an issue given her speed, tactical ability, and Ryan Moore riding. A big favorite.
Rich’s Comments: Favorite for good reason – winner 5 in a row – including 3 G1s.
10 – Amusingly
Tom’s Analysis: A neck away from being undefeated. In three races, won two, including a Group One at Longchamp at seven furlongs. Will be midpack and close quickly at the end. Her last run was a last-to-first win. Must consider, and my top choice.
Rich’s Comments: French horse and neck from being undefeated – the neck was lone at a mile – the other two were 7 furlongs – challenger.
11 – Scommessa Sicura
Rich’s Comments: Has the mile experience – but has fallen off as competition has gone up.
14 – Ballinea Star
Tom’s Analysis: In her Group 3 Anglesey Stakes victory at the Curragh, contested the lead and went on to win. Two wins in six starts. Has speed to contest early. This field may not allow her to run a good race unless the ground is soft. Plenty of early speed in the race, so I must pass.
Rich’s Comments: Has a G3 win – but another that has backed up as the competition has gotten better.
15 – Silent Beauty (Also Eligible)
Tom’s Analysis: Won at Ayr, Ripon, and Yarmouth and was crushed at Royal Ascot. Breaks well and has shown tactical speed to press the pace. Three wins from four starts and has performed well on wet going. Based on the Royal Ascot run, I will pass at this level.
Rich’s Comments: Possible longshot if she draws in – did finish 23rd of 25 vs Sun Goddess – but things can go wrong with that many horses – won the other 3 starts.
Race 10: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf
2 – Avec Toi
Tom’s Analysis: Won three of four starts at Saint-Cloud, Deauville, and Longchamp. In her last race, moved up to Group One company and finished sixth at Longchamp. If she shows the good turn of foot she displayed at Group Three level, she has a chance. Watch the odds.
Rich’s Comments: Never on good – struggled last out – 5 races without a break as a 2yo – looks tired to me.
3 – Florida Bay
Tom’s Analysis: Two wins from seven races and finished second, third, or fourth in the others. Breaks well, runs a steady race, and will grind it out behind the front runners. Won at Group Three level and has done well enough at Group One level. With a decent trip, has a chance to place.
Rich’s Comments: Well beaten in last two and looks like another in need of rest.
4 – Haffner
Tom’s Analysis: Won at one mile in the last start, a Group Two race. Worst career race came in the National Stakes (G1), finishing seventh. Appears to be a rhythm horse, so getting settled and in position will be key to closing late. Proven at this distance, could win it all from this post position.
Rich’s Comments: G2 win last out on good – lone bad race on yielding – contender on the footing.
6 – Pikachu
Tom’s Analysis: After running at seven furlongs four times, best finish in novice-to-group races was second. Returned to maiden level and won by over twelve lengths at one mile, then ran fourth in Group One company at a mile and a sixteenth. Unproven at this level, but with maturity may become a good middle-distance horse. Not the best level for him today.
Rich’s Comments: Has not fired at the group level yet.
9 – Sale Shark
Tom’s Analysis: Two wins from six starts, including a maiden and a listed race at York. Fifth in the Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot. Hasn’t run well in group races. Has early speed, will need position, and makes steady gains late. Pass.
Rich’s Comments: Lacks a win at a level that says he can beat a bunch of quality horses.
10 – Folsom Blues
Tom’s Analysis: Won her maiden and the Group One National Stakes by over six lengths. Ran second to Sun Goddess in the Phoenix. Proven at this level and improves as the race progresses. Second in her last race, a Group One at Longchamp. Contender.
Rich’s Comments: No bad races yet in 6 – the G1 win on Sep 13 – highest rated win in the race – should be one of the main characters.
11 – Man’s Best Friend
Tom’s Analysis: Two wins from five starts. Tried group company three times, winning the Richmond Stakes at six furlongs and finishing fourth and third in the other attempts. Accelerates on the turn before hitting the stretch. If he runs back to the Richmond, has a chance.
14 – Great Barrier Reef
Tom’s Analysis: Won her first three starts, including the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot. Ran second by a neck and third in her last two starts. Has good early speed and breaks well. Must sustain that speed to win. Never out of the money in five races.
Saturday, October 31
Race 5: Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint
3 – Bacio
Tom’s Analysis: Won two of the top sprint races at Royal Ascot and York. Breaks fastest and runs straight. With position on the turn, will be the one to beat. Has already won at Keeneland.
7 – Comanche Brave
Tom’s Analysis: A world traveler who has faced difficulties. Won his last start, a Group One at the Curragh, with style after winning the July Cup. If he gets into a speed duel with Bacio, must keep up. Of all the other horses, has the best chance to win.
Rich’s Comments: Back to back G1 – definitely fits here – first up is weak link.
13 – Starlust
Tom’s Analysis: A former winner of this race. Ran fourth at the Curragh last out and finished second to Bacio in the Nunthorpe. Lacks early speed and needs racing luck and running room to fly home. Outside post position is a concern.
14 – Miss Yechance
Tom’s Analysis: Won her last three starts, including the Abbaye at Longchamp. Performance cycle continues and she will be with the best sprinters. Faced Bacio at Royal Ascot and ran seventh. Current form is her best. Breaks well and will run a brave race. Post fourteen is difficult to overcome, but good odds if she gets a trip.
Rich’s Comments: Looks for 4th win in a row – G1 in last – on the front and oddly distance favors closer – too much to ask from the 14th post.
15 – Big Mojo (Also Eligible)
Tom’s Analysis: Won the Commonwealth Cup Trial at Ascot, but best race of the year was winning the Sprint Cup at Haydock. Prefers firm ground and has a decent turn of foot. Runs well in large fields and finishes strongly. Pace-dependent, but Bacio should provide pace. Consider if he draws in.
Rich’s Comments: Does have a G3 win at the Curragh – and a G1 last year – play underneath as a shot if he draws in – potential is there if he fires.
Race 6: Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile
6 – Lord Fons
Tom’s Analysis: This six-year-old won his last start. Will stalk and needs a strong pace to win. A top seven-furlong horse in Japan, so the eight-furlong distance against top milers is a concern. Needs a clean trip and plenty to do at the end. At best, a place or show finish.
Rich’s Comments: On/off horse – if he is on – could win – if he’s off won’t get a call – won last pair of off the bench starts – pick a side.
Race 7: Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf
4 – Red Letter
Tom’s Analysis: Mostly in the money in recent races, but hasn’t had the best results against top Group One company. Does not break well and may be far back. Has stamina for longer distances, with middle distances suiting her best. Could run in the money, but a win is doubtful.
Rich’s Comments: Maybe a piece underneath – nothing about her 2026 form indicates a win here.
8 – Jancis
Tom’s Analysis: The Dahlia Stakes was one of her best runs, defeating Cathedral by over one length. Needs to settle behind the pace and move consistently through the middle of the race. Has three wins and one third in fourteen starts. Wants distance and may improve at even farther. Could run in the money or do nothing. Her alternating form pattern suggests a better race today.
9 – Eccentric
Tom’s Analysis: Chilean import who won a Win and You’re In race at Club Hipico de Santiago, defeating males and females with a strong late run to win by a head. Only finished off the board once in twelve starts. Qualified for the Breeders’ Cup Turf but opted for this race. Now trained by Wesley Ward. Does her best running from midpack with a strong closing kick. South American-bred horses have a history of Breeders’ Cup success, including Argentine-bred winners Paseana, Bayakoa, Invasor and Full Serrano.
Rich’s Comments: G1s in Chile – more in line with Grade III or Non Graded 100k type – light breeding – if she beats me – she beats me.
11 – Precise
Tom’s Analysis: Six wins, four seconds, and one third. Has a knack for running better in Group One races. Rebounded from a poor English Guineas effort to win the Irish Guineas. Won the premier three-year-old fillies’ race at Royal Ascot and finished second in the Opera at Longchamp. Can settle far back and make one run.
Rich’s Comments: Moore and O’Brien = you have to consider – but has not beaten Blue Bolt and seems to struggle out of the gates – just too much to ask to overcome in a deep, talented field.
12 – Blue Bolt
Tom’s Analysis: Won her last four races, all Group Ones, at different tracks and under different conditions. Adapts to the race, settles quickly after the break, and fights when challenged. Finishes with a powerful turn of foot. Is she the favorite?
Rich’s Comments: Going to be one of the favorites – deservedly so – notes indicate she can run front, middle and back. Clearly the most likely winner.
Race 8: Breeders’ Cup Sprint
2 – Dark Saffron
Tom’s Analysis: Won the Golden Shaheen twice in Dubai, including a victory over Breeders’ Cup winner Bentornato. A pure speed horse who breaks quickly and is pushed to the lead. Could wire the field if he gets an easy lead.
Rich’s Comments: Running in that Meydan sand a lot different than fast Keeneland dirt – speed wins and he’s going forward – has a shot on the right fractions – but going to be a lot of pace here.
6 – American Stage
Tom’s Analysis: Three victories in seventeen starts. Fourth in this race last year. Finished second in the Korea Sprint at Seoul in his latest start. Has won only one stakes race, in Japan. Forwardly placed with tactical speed, and this is his best distance. Could be around at the finish, but a win is unlikely. At best, third.
11 – T O Elvis
Tom’s Analysis: A top sprinter with tactical versatility and the ability to stalk speed. Won the Churchill Downs Stakes in his last race, an impressive performance, and has won five in a row. Proven at 1200m and 1400m and can win off a layoff. Could make his move mid-race and win.
Race 9: Breeders’ Cup Mile
2 – Lake Forest
Tom’s Analysis: Second at Keeneland in a Grade One after finishing second in the City of York. Biggest win came in the Lennox Stakes at Goodwood. Settles behind leaders and has been shuffled back. Not a deep closer, but has a sharp turn of foot. Best distance may be seven furlongs. Keeneland experience is an advantage.
5 – Ask Ikigomi
Tom’s Analysis: Three career starts, two wins and a second. Won the Churchill Downs Cup after winning his debut in Japan. Second in the Group One NHK Mile. Inexperienced but has raced exclusively at a mile. Faced top company last time and could win with slight improvement.
Rich’s Comments: A mile in 1:31.2 seems like an awfully good time in last – not a cheap horse either – if that time is legit and travels here – 20-1 is a gift.
7 – Qirat
Tom’s Analysis: Runs well at times but usually at a lower level. Group One efforts haven’t been convincing. Wants to race near the front and would benefit from a good pace. Not expecting a turnaround.
8 – Notable Speech
Tom’s Analysis: Won his last two races, the City of York and Woodbine Mile. Had a poor Royal Ascot effort after winning the Lockinge. Fourth in the Maker’s Mark Mile at Keeneland in April. Won the Breeders’ Cup Mile in 2025. Tactical stalker with a powerful finish, but has struggled in races lacking early pace. Favorite.
10 – Lugal
Tom’s Analysis: Recent group and graded performances have been disappointing. Has shown flashes of ability, but last win was in 2025. Versatile running style. The Sprinters Stakes in Japan featured a suicidal pace, leaving him little chance. Depends which version shows up.
Rich’s Comments: 2nd up – his resume says it’ll look like the first up – which was bad last out.
12 – True Love
Tom’s Analysis: Won the Foret at Longchamp after five disappointing runs following the English Guineas. Showed speed as a two-year-old but has matured into a stalking runner. Inconsistent and difficult to judge. Contender, but questions remain.
14 – Puerto Rico
Tom’s Analysis: Better at two than this season. Winless this year, with his best finish coming in the Foret last time. Improvement makes him worth considering, but overall form remains questionable. Difficult post unless he pulls off an Order of Australia-type performance.
Rich’s Comments: Trainer Aidan O’Brien says the horse regained his form last out – who am I to argue and his PPs do show that when he is in form – he stays in form – Beware.
Race 11: Breeders’ Cup Turf
1 – Ethical Diamond
Tom’s Analysis: Won this race last year from the back of the field. Returned with poor efforts in Dubai and Royal Ascot before winning a Group Three. Second to Tiffany at Kentucky Downs last time. Closer who needs a solid pace up front. A major horse to beat.
2 – Benvenuto Cellini
Tom’s Analysis: Won the Chester Vase and Irish Derby earlier this season. Since then finished third, fifth, and ninth in the Arc. Chester performance matters because of its tight turns, similar to Keeneland. Recent form suggests a major turnaround is needed. Runs evenly and builds momentum in the stretch. Not a horse I’d be betting on.
Rich’s Comments: Last two bad – but look under the surface – those were on soft – the good stuff was good stuff – I hope he is overlooked – serious contender in what looks like a jockeys’ race – Interesting that Moore is here and not on Diamond Necklace.
6 – El Cordobes
Tom’s Analysis: Third in this race last year. Returned with an average fifth-place effort and was third in the Joe Hirsch after shipping to Belmont. Improvement possible, but better horses likely to fill the placings.
7 – Hotazhell
Tom’s Analysis: Won his last two starts in Germany and Ireland, including the Irish Champion Stakes against a talented field. One of Europe’s leading middle-distance runners. With a strong pace, will battle late and doesn’t back down when challenged. Watch the odds because he should offer a double-digit price.
9 – Johanna Walsh
Tom’s Analysis: Looked good winning the Irish Oaks at the Curragh. Second at Royal Ascot after winning her maiden. Latest effort was average, finishing sixth. A stalker who is still improving but unproven at this level. Worth considering at a price.
Rich’s Comments: Up until her last – I’d say yes – I think the rest helps – distance isn’t an issue – a head from winning both – not surprised if she contends at all.
10 – Tiffany
Tom’s Analysis: Won going away at Kentucky Downs over Ethical Diamond after victories in Germany. Stalker who gets into stride late. If she gets a good start and first run, she will be hard to beat. Sir Mark Prescott rarely sends horses to North America, and when he does, they generally perform well. Very impressive last time and on my win ticket.
11 – Survie
Tom’s Analysis: Five-year-old with group and graded stakes victories in Europe and North America. Has six wins, three seconds, and five thirds from twenty-one starts. Won the Christophe Clement at Saratoga but finished tenth in the Prix Vermeille. A rebound makes her a contender.
12 – Diamond Necklace
Tom’s Analysis: Won her first six starts before finishing second in the Jean Romanet and third in the Arc. Had everything against her in the Arc with an impossible post position. Adapts to the race and needs to settle before accelerating in the stretch. Cannot leave her off the ticket based on the Arc performance.
Rich’s Comments: Never a bad race in 8 – wonder why O’Brien’s first call rider Moore went with the 2? Very easily could turn out to be the wrong choice.
13 – Bay City Roller
Rich’s Comments: Distance works 5/2-3-0 – seems to just fall a little short at this level – definitely a Tom horse – win, ehh – ITM, yes.
14 – Deep Monster
Tom’s Analysis: Eight-year-old with seven wins, four seconds, and five thirds from thirty starts. Three races this season, including a Group Two win, third behind Romantic Warrior in a Group One, and fourth in a Group Two at Kyoto. Best Group One finish is third, most recently at Sha Tin. A grinder who can settle into a strong pace, but record against top company is poor. Pass.
Rich’s Comments: Breeding says yeah – resume says it would be a shocker.
15 – Map of Stars (Also Eligible)
Tom’s Analysis: Winning effort at Royal Ascot outside group company. Beaten a neck in a Group Three in France last time. Twice second and once fourth in Group One company in 2025. Typical stalker who wants cover early and builds momentum in the stretch. In the money ten times from fourteen starts. Worth a look if he draws in.
Rich’s Comments: Must think they have a real shot to bring the horse over from Europe on AE status – if he draws in – beware.
Race 12: Breeders’ Cup Classic
1 – T O Password
Tom’s Analysis: Last three races show improvement with a win, second, and third. Has competed in major races, including the 2024 Kentucky Derby, finishing fifth. Needs a fast pace, good positioning, and room for a strong stretch run. Whether he has improved enough to win or place remains the question.
Rich’s Comments: Japanese trainers don’t seem to push their horses on the backside – his work catches my attention.
5 – Forever Young
Tom’s Analysis: The best dirt horse in the world. Won this race last year and prepped with a victory in the Jockey Gold Cup at Belmont. The Classic is strong again, but it was last year too. Unless the early pace is really slow, he will move in time to win.
Final Thoughts: Don’t Overlook the International Runners
International horses bring a different dimension to Breeders’ Cup handicapping. Some arrive with championship credentials, others with form that doesn’t translate as easily, and a few may be much better than their American odds suggest.
Tom and Rich don’t agree on every runner. That’s part of the value of comparing two approaches.
Whether you’re looking for a legitimate win contender, a longshot with upside, or a horse to use underneath in the exotics, understanding the international competition can make a difference.
The Breeders’ Cup is a world championship. Handicap it like one.
