Kentucky Derby Prep Race Picks
To date there have been (18) Kentucky Derby prep races with (2) scheduled for this weekend with the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs and the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields awarding points of (10-4-2-1). As we move towards the first weekend of May at Churchill Downs, we are starting to see some separation of the contenders. The Bob Baffert trained horses continue to collect ‘unrewarded’ points in these prep races. I am going to assume that if something doesn’t change with the Baffert situation soon that the owners are going to have to make some hard decisions about making a trainer change.
My Top 3 Rankings after this weekend.
#1 CORNICHE
This Baffert trained horse is 3 for 3 and has done nothing to make me change my mind. Has already won two Grade 1’s. I haven’t seen anything to make me think he’s not legit. Has already beaten a bunch of contenders.
#2 SMILE HAPPY
Horse has been pointed to a couple of recent stakes but not entered. The win in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) was a good effort going 4-wide into the stretch with a ton of kick. I’m excited to see what he does in his next race, could be the one.
#3 MESSIER
My 2nd rated Baffert trained runner. You can find some knocks but the small field he faced in the Robert B. Lewis looked inferior. Was a good effort and just looked like he took a nice step forward.
Notes on other contenders:
NEWGRANGE the last effort wasn’t the best in the Southwest but he’s 3/3 and you could find excuses in the trip of why he could have lost. Good horses just find ways to win. MO DONEGAL has more to give, completely disadvantaged on pace last race when the speed of the race didn’t break from the gate. PAPPACAP needs the right situation on pace to connect from off the pace, currently the leader in Derby points. WHITE ABARIO ran well in the Holy Bull, but he benefited by the trip, also concerned if Saffie can win outside of Gulfstream. EMMANUEL is 2/2 with some quality speed figures; I need to see more as he’s had little competition. EARLY VOTING looked like Secretariat dominating a poor field in the Withers, needs to take another step forward. EPICENTER in the Lecomte got the perfect trip on the front with reasonable fractions but just seemed to hang in the stretch.
Official Kentucky Derby Point Standings
| Rank | Horse | Derby Points Earned | Trainer |
| 1 | Pappacap | 14 | Mark Casse |
| 2 | Epicenter | 14 | Steve Asmussen |
| 3 | White Abarrio | 12 | Saffie Joseph Jr. |
| 4 | Mo Donegal | 12 | Todd Pletcher |
| 5 | Rattle N Roll | 10 | Kenny McPeek |
| 6 | Jack Christopher | 10 | Chad Brown |
| 7 | Make It Big | 10 | Saffie Joseph Jr. |
| 8 | Smile Happy | 10 | Kenny McPeek |
| 9 | Slow Down Andy | 10 | Doug O’Neill |
| 10 | Major General | 10 | Todd Pletcher |
| 11 | Dash Attack | 10 | Kenny McPeek |
| 12 | Early Voting | 10 | Chad Brown |
| 13 | Call Me Midnight | 10 | Keith Desormeaux |
| 14 | Courvoisier | 10 | Kelly Breen |
| 15 | Barber Road | 8 | John Ortiz |
| 16 | Commandperformance | 6 | Todd Pletcher |
| 17 | Classic Causeway | 6 | Brian Lynch |
| 18 | Double Thunder | 4 | Todd Pletcher |
| 19 | Giant Game | 4 | Dale Romans |
| 20 | Tejano Twist | 4 | Bret Calhoun |
| 21 | Simplification | 4 | Antonio Sano |
| 22 | Cabo Spirit | 4 | George Papaprodromou |
| 23 | Oviatt Class | 4 | Keith Desormeaux |
| 24 | Osbourne | 4 | Ron Moquett |
| 25 | Tough to Tame | 4 | Chris Davis |
| 26 | Un Ojo | 4 | Tony Dutrow |
| 27 | Zandon | 4 | Chad Brown |
| 28 | Smarten Up | 4 | Alfredo Velazquez |
| 29 | Ben Diesel | 3 | Dallas Stewart |
| 30 | Wit | 2 | Todd Pletcher |
| 31 | Kavod | 2 | Chris Hartman |
| 32 | Cooke Creek | 2 | Jeremiah O’Dwyer |
| 33 | Red Knobs | 2 | Dale Romans |
| 34 | Midnight Chrome | 2 | Tyler Servis |
| 35 | Gilded Age | 2 | Bill Mott |
| 36 | Ignitis | 2 | Wayne Lukas |
| 37 | Surfer Dude | 2 | Dallas Stewart |
| 38 | Mackinnon | 1 | Doug O’Neill |
| 39 | My Prankster | 1 | Todd Pletcher |
| 40 | American Sanctuary | 1 | Chris Davis |
| 41 | Kevin’s Folly | 1 | Tom Amoss |
| 42 | Durante | 1 | Doug O’Neill |
| 43 | Mr Jefferson | 1 | Mike Trombetta |
| 44 | Grantham | 1 | Mike Maker |
| 45 | Bourbon Heist | 1 | Ian Wilkes |
| 46 | Unbridled Bomber | 1 | Jim Ryerson |
| 47 | Sir London | 1 | Simon Callaghan |
| 48 | Galt | 1 | Bill Mott |
| 49 | Trafalgar | 1 | Al Stall Jr. |
