Chris Pomerleau’s Derby Rankings 3-3-2022

Kentucky Derby Prep Race Picks

We are now 22 Kentucky Derby prep races in with 19prep races remaining to earn points.  There are two prep races this week with the John Battaglia Memorial being run this Friday at Turfway Park (points awarded 10/4/2/1) and the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park on Saturday (points awarded 50/20/10/5) to the top 4 finishers.

With Newgrange coming up short in the Rebel Stakes finishing out of the money there is only one certainty, that the Kentucky Derby in 2022 looks to be wide open.   We saw a (75:1) UN OJO a one-eyed longshot wins the Rebel; anything appears to be possible at this point.  I’m thinking this is the year where we may get another MINE THAT BIRD at a big price, time will tell.

My current 2022 Kentucky Derby rankings:

#1 MESSIER

Time is quickly running out as I envisioned the owners would assign him to another trainer, run in a 50-point prep race, qualify him, and run in the derby.  You can find some knocks but the small field he faced in the Robert B. Lewis looked inferior; he took a nice step-forward.  Watch the replay and look at those ears pinned back as he starts to fly down the stretch, I love the body language.

#2 SMILE HAPPY

We saw his return after the lay-off and showed he may have needed a race.  As trainer Kenny McPeek tweeted out that he maybe needed to be a tad closer, was valiant to get up for 2^nd and had a good gallop out.  I would have liked to have seen him urged a little quicker than he was, but the reality is that he wasn’t catching Epicenter who had the perfect trip to go wire to wire.  I’m surprised he got up for 2^nd as he had to weave through a couple of horses to get there.  For now, I’ll leave him in the 2-spot because I believe there is more to give.

#3 EPICENTER

Most points to date with earning those 50 points with the Risen Star win improved his derby stock.  He had a pace advantage and the front end on the rail was the place to be.  Good horses take advantage or every situation and make no doubt about it he is a good horse and beat some talented horses in that last race.

#4 CLASSIC CAUSEWAY

He looked impressive in the Sam F. Davis, but I would have liked to see what he would have done with more pace pressure.  He did put away the field in a race that appeared contentious on paper.

#5 EARLY VOTING

Looked like Secretariat winning the Withers so easily.  Now we get the 2^nd place horse from that race Un Ojo winning the Rebel, let’s put Early Voting on the map for that.

Notes on other top Kentucky Derby contenders:

ZANDON Hopped out of the gate and went right to the back.  Made a strong move on the turn and kept coming.  Would’ve liked to have seen what he could have done with better placement out of the starting gate.

MO DONEGAL  Believe he has more to give, was disadvantaged on pace in the last race when the speed of the race didn’t break from the gate.  Needs some pace in front of him but like how he performed

EMMANUEL is 2/2 with some quality speed figures; I need to see more as he’s had little competition.

WHITE ABARIO ran well in the Holy Bull, but he benefited by the trip, also concerned if Saffie can win outside of Gulfstream.

UN OJO ran his heart out and may have proven that the Withers was not the weak race everyone said it was.  Got a good trip but he’s a fireball of late speed and I like that.

NEWGRANGE drops in the rankings after his performance in the Rebel.  Not the best trip but thought he should have beaten that group easily.

SHIPSATIONAL looked good in the Sam F. Davis from mid-pack on a track that favors early speed.  Needs perfect trip but he stays on the radar with his finish.

Official Kentucky Derby Point Standings as of 2/28/22

Typically (40) earned derby points pretty much guarantees a spot in the Kentucky Derby field.  Using that criteria Epicenter and Un Ojo should have already punched their ticket to be at Churchill Downs for the 1^st weekend of May.

 Source: https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/leaderboard