Kentucky Derby

Chris Pomerleau’s Derby Rankings 3-3-2022

Kentucky Derby Prep Race Picks

We are now 22 Kentucky Derby prep races in with 19prep races remaining to earn points.  There are two prep races this week with the John Battaglia Memorial being run this Friday at Turfway Park (points awarded 10/4/2/1) and the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park on Saturday (points awarded 50/20/10/5) to the top 4 finishers.

With Newgrange coming up short in the Rebel Stakes finishing out of the money there is only one certainty, that the Kentucky Derby in 2022 looks to be wide open.   We saw a (75:1) UN OJO a one-eyed longshot wins the Rebel; anything appears to be possible at this point.  I’m thinking this is the year where we may get another MINE THAT BIRD at a big price, time will tell.

My current 2022 Kentucky Derby rankings:

#1 MESSIER

Time is quickly running out as I envisioned the owners would assign him to another trainer, run in a 50-point prep race, qualify him, and run in the derby.  You can find some knocks but the small field he faced in the Robert B. Lewis looked inferior; he took a nice step-forward.  Watch the replay and look at those ears pinned back as he starts to fly down the stretch, I love the body language.

#2 SMILE HAPPY

We saw his return after the lay-off and showed he may have needed a race.  As trainer Kenny McPeek tweeted out that he maybe needed to be a tad closer, was valiant to get up for 2nd and had a good gallop out.  I would have liked to have seen him urged a little quicker than he was, but the reality is that he wasn’t catching Epicenter who had the perfect trip to go wire to wire.  I’m surprised he got up for 2nd as he had to weave through a couple of horses to get there.  For now, I’ll leave him in the 2-spot because I believe there is more to give.

#3 EPICENTER

Most points to date with earning those 50 points with the Risen Star win improved his derby stock.  He had a pace advantage and the front end on the rail was the place to be.  Good horses take advantage or every situation and make no doubt about it he is a good horse and beat some talented horses in that last race.

#4 CLASSIC CAUSEWAY

He looked impressive in the Sam F. Davis, but I would have liked to see what he would have done with more pace pressure.  He did put away the field in a race that appeared contentious on paper.

#5 EARLY VOTING

Looked like Secretariat winning the Withers so easily.  Now we get the 2nd place horse from that race Un Ojo winning the Rebel, let’s put Early Voting on the map for that.

Notes on other top Kentucky Derby contenders:

ZANDON Hopped out of the gate and went right to the back.  Made a strong move on the turn and kept coming.  Would’ve liked to have seen what he could have done with better placement out of the starting gate.

MO DONEGAL  Believe he has more to give, was disadvantaged on pace in the last race when the speed of the race didn’t break from the gate.  Needs some pace in front of him but like how he performed

EMMANUEL is 2/2 with some quality speed figures; I need to see more as he’s had little competition.

WHITE ABARIO ran well in the Holy Bull, but he benefited by the trip, also concerned if Saffie can win outside of Gulfstream.

UN OJO ran his heart out and may have proven that the Withers was not the weak race everyone said it was.  Got a good trip but he’s a fireball of late speed and I like that.

NEWGRANGE drops in the rankings after his performance in the Rebel.  Not the best trip but thought he should have beaten that group easily.

SHIPSATIONAL looked good in the Sam F. Davis from mid-pack on a track that favors early speed.  Needs perfect trip but he stays on the radar with his finish.

 

Official Kentucky Derby Point Standings as of 2/28/22

Typically (40) earned derby points pretty much guarantees a spot in the Kentucky Derby field.  Using that criteria Epicenter and Un Ojo should have already punched their ticket to be at Churchill Downs for the 1st weekend of May.

Rank Horse Derby Points Trainer
  1 Epicenter 64 Steve Asmussen
  2 Un Ojo 54 Ricky Courville
  3 Smile Happy 30 Kenny McPeek
  4 Ethereal Road 20 D. Wayne Lukas
  5 Barber Road 18 John Ortiz
  6 Classic Causeway 16 Brian Lynch
  7 Pappacap 14 Mark Casse
  8 Zandon 14 Chad Brown
  9 White Abarrio 12 Saffie Joseph Jr.
10 Mo Donegal 12 Todd Pletcher
11 Rattle N Roll 10 Kenny McPeek
12 Make It Big 10 Saffie Joseph Jr.
13 Slow Down Andy 10 Doug O’Neill
14 Major General 10 Todd Pletcher
15 Dash Attack 10 Kenny McPeek
16 Early Voting 10 Chad Brown
17 Call Me Midnight 10 Keith Desormeaux
18 Courvoisier 10 Kelly Breen
19 Kavod   7 Chris Hartman
20 Commandperformance   6 Todd Pletcher
21 Mackinnon   5 Doug O’Neill
22 Pioneer of Medina   5 Todd Pletcher
23 Giant Game   4 Dale Romans
24 Simplification   4 Antonio Sano
25 Cabo Spirit   4 George Papaprodromou
26 Tough to Tame   4 Chris Davis
27 Shipsational   4 Ed Barker
28 Smarten Up   4 Alfredo Velazquez
29 Ben Diesel   3 Dallas Stewart
30 Cooke Creek   2 Jeremiah O’Dwyer
31 Red Knobs   2 Dale Romans
32 Midnight Chrome   2 Tyler Servis
33 Gilded Age   2 Bill Mott
34 Ignitis   2 Wayne Lukas
35 Volcanic   2 Mark Casse
36 My Prankster   1 Todd Pletcher
37 American Sanctuary   1 Chris Davis
38 Kevin’s Folly   1 Tom Amoss
39 Grantham   1 Mike Maker
40 Bourbon Heist   1 Ian Wilkes
41 Trafalgar   1 Al Stall Jr.
42 Sir London   1 Simon Callaghan
43 Galt   1 Bill Mott
44 Unbridled Bomber   1 Jim Ryerson
45 Il Belator   1 Jose Bautista

 Source: https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/leaderboard

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