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Kentucky Derby Prep Race Picks

Kentucky Derby

Chris Pomerleau’s Derby Rankings – February 25, 2022

Kentucky Derby Prep Race Picks

Kentucky Derby Prep Ranks

To date there have been (22) Kentucky Derby prep races.  The first (50) point stakes race was this past weekend with the Risen Star.  In a race with multiple contenders we. As we get ready for the next big race on Saturday with a nice field in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park with another 50 points being awarded to the winner. As expected, several (5) horses from the Southwest Stakes from a month ago are entered in the Rebel.

My current rankings:

#1 MESSIER

For another week I am going to continue to keep the Bob Baffert runner in the rankings.  You can find some knocks but the small field he faced in the Robert B. Lewis looked inferior; he did take a nice step-forward.  Watch the replay and look at those ears pinned back as he starts to fly down the stretch, I love the body language.

#2 SMILE HAPPY
We saw his return after the lay-off and showed he may have needed a race. As trainer Kenny McPeek tweeted out that he maybe needed to be a tad closer, was valiant to get up for 2nd and had a good gallop out. I would have liked to have seen him urged a little quicker than he was, but the reality is that he wasn’t catching Epicenter who had the perfect trip to go wire to wire. I’m surprised he got up for 2nd as he had to weave through a couple of horses to get there. For now, I’ll leave him in the 2-spot because I believe there is more to give.

#3 EPICENTER
Most points to date with earning those (50) points with the Risen Star win improved his derby stock. He had a pace advantage and the front end on the rail was the place to be. Good horses take advantage or every situation and make no doubt about it he is a good horse and beat some talented horses in that last race.

#4 CLASSIC CAUSEWAY
He looked impressive in the Sam F. Davis, but I would have liked to see what he would have done with more pace pressure. He did put away the field in a race that appeared contentious on paper.

#5 NEWGRANGE
The last effort wasn’t the best in the Southwest but he’s 3/3 and you could find excuses in the trip of why he could have lost. Good horses just find ways to win.

Notes on other contenders:

ZANDON Hopped out of the gate and went right to the back.  Made a strong move on the turn and kept coming.  Would’ve liked to have seen what he could have done with  better placement out of the starting gate.

MO DONEGAL  Believe he has more to give, was disadvantaged on pace in the last race when the speed of the race didn’t break from the gate.  Needs some pace in front of him but like how he performed

EMMANUEL is 2/2 with some quality speed figures; I need to see more as he’s had little competition.

WHITE ABARIO ran well in the Holy Bull, but he benefited by the trip, also concerned if Saffie can win outside of Gulfstream.

SHIPSATIONAL looked good in the Sam F. Davis from mid-pack on a track that favors early speed.  Needs perfect trip but he stays on the radar with his finish.

 

Official Kentucky Derby Point Standings as of 2/21/22

# Horse Points Trainer Sire
1 Epicenter 64 Steve Asmussen Not This Time
2 Smile Happy 30 Ken McPeek Runhappy
3 Classic Causeway 16 Brian Lynch Giant’s Causeway
4 Pappacap 14 Mark Casse Gun Runner
5 Zandon 14 Chad Brown Upstart
6 White Abarrio 12 Saffie Joseph, Jr. Race Day
7 Mo Donegal 12 Todd Pletcher Uncle Mo
8 Dash Attack 10 Ken McPeek Munnings
9 Courvoisier 10 Kelly Breen Tapit
10 Make It Big 10 Saffie Joseph, Jr. Neolithic
11 Call Me Midnight 10 Keith Desormeaux Midnight Lute
12 Early Voting 10 Chad Brown Gun Runner
13 Slow Down Andy 10 Douh O’Neill Nyquist
14 Rattle N Roll 10 Ken McPeek Connect
15 Jack Christopher 10 Chad Brown Munnings
16 Major General 10 Todd Pletcher Constitution
17 Barber Road 8 John Ortiz Race Day
18 Commandperformance 6 Todd Pletcher Union Rags
19 Mackinnon 5 Doug O’Neill American Pharoah
20 Pioneer of Medina 5 Todd Pletcher Pioneerof the Nile
21 Oviatt Class 4 Keith Desormeaux Bernardini
22 Shipsational 4 Edward Barker Midshipman
23 Simplification 4 Antonio Sano Not This Time
24 Uno Ojo 4 Anthony Dutrow Laoban
25 Tejano Twist 4 Bret Calhoun Practical Joke
26 Osbourne 4 Ron Moquett Tapiture
27 Double Thunder 4 Todd Pletcher Super Saver
28 Tough to Tame 4 Christopher Davis Speightster
29 Wit 4 Todd Pletcher Practical Joke
30 Smarten Up 4 Alfredo Velazquez American Freedom
31 Cabo Spirit 4 George Papaprodromou Pioneerof the Nile
32 Volcanic 4 Mark Casse Violence
33 Del Mo 4 Doug O’Neill Uncle Mo
34 Ben Diesel 3 Dallas Stewart Will Take Charge
35 Surfer Dude 2 Dallas Stewart Curlin
36 Midnight Chrome 2 Tyler Servis Caifornia Chrome
37 Gilded Age 2 Bill Mott Medaglia d’Oro
38 Ignitis 2 D. Wayne Lukas Nyquist
39 Red Knobs 2 Dale Romans Union Rags
40 Cooke Creek 2 Jeremiah O’Dwyer Uncle Mo
41 Kavod 2 Chris Hartman Lea
42 Grantham 1 Mike Maker Declaration of War
43 American Sanctuary 1 Christopher Davis American Freedom
44 My Prankster 1 Todd Pletcher Into Mischief
45 Bourbon Heist 1 Ian Wilkes Practical Joke
46 Mr Jefferson 1 Mike Trombetta Constitution
47 Durante 1 Doug O’Neill Distorted Humor
48 Kevin’s Folly 1 Tom Amoss Distorted Humor
49 Strike Hard 1 Matthew Williams Flashback
50 Trafalger 1 Al Stall Lord Nelson
51 Unbridled Bomber 1 James Ryerson Upstart
52 Galt 1 Bill Mott Medaglia d’Oro
53 Sir London 1 Simon Callaghan Malibu Moon
54 lL Bellator 1 Jose Bautista Shackleford

Source: https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/leaderboard

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