Kentucky Derby Prep Race Picks
To date there have been 20 Kentucky Derby prep races with the first 50 points to the winner prep race to date this Saturday at Fairgrounds with the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes (50-20-10-5). With five legit Kentucky Derby contenders in the same race, we should be able to separate some of the contenders next week. Bob Baffert collected more ‘unrewarded’ last weekend with Blackadder winning the prep race at Golden Gate.
My Rankings after this weekend.
#1 SMILE HAPPY
Horse has been pointed to a couple of recent stakes but not entered. The win in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) was a good effort going 4-wide into the stretch with a ton of kick. Original plan was to run in the Southwest Stakes and possibly the Holy Bull. Thinking of trainer intent why run for (10) points when you can collect (50)! I’m excited to see what he does in his next race, could be the one.
#2 MESSIER
My top-rated Baffert trained runner. You can find some knocks but the small field he faced in the Robert B. Lewis looked inferior. Was a good effort and just looked like he took a nice step forward. At some point the owners are going to have to make some decisions on switching trainers as you must get him in the Derby with a legit chance to win.
#3 SLOW DOWN ANDY
Added to my board after my replay work preparing for the Risen Star. Beat Messier in the last race, I could find some excuses with Messier as to why he may have lost that race, but I can do the same with him and he ended up in the winner’s circle. Believe he can run with the best.
#4 CLASSIC CAUSEWAY
With the big win in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa he’s currently the leader on Kentucky Derby points with (16). He looked impressive in the Sam F. Davis, but I would have liked to see what he would have done with more pace pressure. He did put away the field in a race that appeared contentious on paper.
#5 CORNICHE
As noted last week on HORSE CENTER with Rich & Shawn’s interview of Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith he mentioned that Corniche isn’t even training right now. Baffert was asked about Corniche’s status last week and seemed uncertain if he is going to be able to return in time for the Derby. Corniche is currently at Winstar farm and per Baffert has just started to gallop to work into shape. He won 2-year-old horse of the year at Eclipse Awards last week. 3 for 3 as a 2-year-old and has already beaten a bunch of the top contenders but it’s 3-year-old season and a lot must happen from now until the first weekend in May at Churchill Downs.
Notes on other contenders:
NEWGRANGE the last effort wasn’t the best in the Southwest but he’s 3/3 and you could find excuses in the trip of why he could have lost. Good horses just find ways to win.
MO DONEGAL Believe he has more to give, was disadvantaged on pace in the last race when the speed of the race didn’t break from the gate. Needs some pace in front of him but like how he performed
ZANDON After watching the replay of the G2 Remsen I really liked his run, ultimately lost the bob to Mo Donegal but after running wide he hung tough in the stretch. We find out quickly what he has to offer this weekend against some heavy hitters.
EMMANUEL is 2/2 with some quality speed figures; I need to see more as he’s had little competition.
WHITE ABARIO ran well in the Holy Bull, but he benefited by the trip, also concerned if Saffie can win outside of Gulfstream.
PAPPACAP I am looking forward to seeing how he performs in the Risen Star, has the rail so he should be positioned for a run should the pace get hot up front.
SHIPSATIONAL looked good in the Sam F. Davis from mid-pack on a track that favors early speed. Needs perfect trip but he gets on the radar with his finish.
EPICENTER in the Lecomte got the perfect trip on the front with reasonable fractions but just seemed to hang in the stretch.
EARLY VOTING looked like Secretariat dominating a poor field in the Withers, needs to take another big step forward.
Top (50) Official Kentucky Derby Point Standings as of 2/15/22
| Rank | Horse | Points | Trainer |
| 1 | Classic Causeway | 16 | Brian Lynch |
| 2 | Pappacap | 14 | Mark Casse |
| 3 | Epicenter | 14 | Steve Asmussen |
| 4 | White Abarrio | 12 | Saffie Joseph Jr. |
| 5 | Mo Donegal | 12 | Todd Pletcher |
| 6 | Rattle N Roll | 10 | Kenny McPeek |
| 7 | Jack Christopher | 10 | Chad Brown |
| 8 | Make It Big | 10 | Saffie Joseph Jr. |
| 9 | Smile Happy | 10 | Kenny McPeek |
| 10 | Slow Down Andy | 10 | Doug O’Neill |
| 11 | Major General | 10 | Todd Pletcher |
| 12 | Dash Attack | 10 | Kenny McPeek |
| 13 | Early Voting | 10 | Chad Brown |
| 14 | Call Me Midnight | 10 | Keith Desormeaux |
| 15 | Courvoisier | 10 | Kelly Breen |
| 16 | Barber Road | 8 | John Ortiz |
| 17 | Commandperformance | 6 | Todd Pletcher |
| 18 | Mackinnon | 5 | Doug O’Neill |
| 19 | Giant Game | 4 | Dale Romans |
| 20 | Simplification | 4 | Antonio Sano |
| 21 | Cabo Spirit | 4 | George Papaprodromou |
| 22 | Osbourne | 4 | Ron Moquett |
| 23 | Tough to Tame | 4 | Chris Davis |
| 24 | Un Ojo | 4 | Tony Dutrow |
| 25 | Zandon | 4 | Chad Brown |
| 26 | Shipsational | 4 | Ed Barker |
| 27 | Smarten Up | 4 | Alfredo Velazquez |
| 28 | Ben Diesel | 3 | Dallas Stewart |
| 29 | Wit | 2 | Todd Pletcher |
| 30 | Kavod | 2 | Chris Hartman |
| 31 | Cooke Creek | 2 | Jeremiah O’Dwyer |
| 32 | Red Knobs | 2 | Dale Romans |
| 33 | Midnight Chrome | 2 | Tyler Servis |
| 34 | Gilded Age | 2 | Bill Mott |
| 35 | Ignitis | 2 | Wayne Lukas |
| 36 | Volcanic | 2 | Mark Casse |
| 37 | Surfer Dude | 2 | Dallas Stewart |
| 38 | Del Mo | 2 | Doug O’Neill |
| 39 | My Prankster | 1 | Todd Pletcher |
| 40 | American Sanctuary | 1 | Chris Davis |
| 41 | Kevin’s Folly | 1 | Tom Amoss |
| 42 | Mr Jefferson | 1 | Mike Trombetta |
| 43 | Grantham | 1 | Mike Maker |
| 44 | Bourbon Heist | 1 | Ian Wilkes |
| 45 | Unbridled Bomber | 1 | Jim Ryerson |
| 46 | Sir London | 1 | Simon Callaghan |
| 47 | Galt | 1 | Bill Mott |
| 48 | Trafalgar | 1 | Al Stall Jr. |
| 49 | Il Belator | 1 | Jose Bautista |
| 50 | Strike Hard | 1 | Matthew Williams |
