Kentucky Derby

Chris Pomerleau’s Kentucky Derby Rankings

Kentucky Derby Prep Race Picks

To date there have been 20 Kentucky Derby prep races with the first 50 points to the winner prep race to date this Saturday at Fairgrounds with the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes (50-20-10-5).  With five legit Kentucky Derby contenders in the same race, we should be able to separate some of the contenders next week. Bob Baffert collected more ‘unrewarded’ last weekend with Blackadder winning the prep race at Golden Gate.

My Rankings after this weekend.

#1 SMILE HAPPY

Horse has been pointed to a couple of recent stakes but not entered.  The win in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) was a good effort going 4-wide into the stretch with a ton of kick.  Original plan was to run in the Southwest Stakes and possibly the Holy Bull.  Thinking of trainer intent why run for (10) points when you can collect (50)!  I’m excited to see what he does in his next race, could be the one.

#2 MESSIER

My top-rated Baffert trained runner.  You can find some knocks but the small field he faced in the Robert B. Lewis looked inferior.  Was a good effort and just looked like he took a nice step forward.  At some point the owners are going to have to make some decisions on switching trainers as you must get him in the Derby with a legit chance to win.

#3 SLOW DOWN ANDY

Added to my board after my replay work preparing for the Risen Star.  Beat Messier in the last race, I could find some excuses with Messier as to why he may have lost that race, but I can do the same with him and he ended up in the winner’s circle.  Believe he can run with the best.

#4 CLASSIC CAUSEWAY

With the big win in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa he’s currently the leader on Kentucky Derby points with (16).  He looked impressive in the Sam F. Davis, but I would have liked to see what he would have done with more pace pressure.  He did put away the field in a race that appeared contentious on paper.

#5 CORNICHE

As noted last week on HORSE CENTER with Rich & Shawn’s interview of Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith he mentioned that Corniche isn’t even training right now.  Baffert was asked about Corniche’s status last week and seemed uncertain if he is going to be able to return in time for the Derby.  Corniche is currently at Winstar farm and per Baffert has just started to gallop to work into shape. He won 2-year-old horse of the year at Eclipse Awards last week.  3 for 3 as a 2-year-old and has already beaten a bunch of the top contenders but it’s 3-year-old season and a lot must happen from now until the first weekend in May at Churchill Downs.

Notes on other contenders:

NEWGRANGE the last effort wasn’t the best in the Southwest but he’s 3/3 and you could find excuses in the trip of why he could have lost.  Good horses just find ways to win.

MO DONEGAL  Believe he has more to give, was disadvantaged on pace in the last race when the speed of the race didn’t break from the gate.  Needs some pace in front of him but like how he performed

ZANDON After watching the replay of the G2 Remsen I really liked his run, ultimately lost the bob to Mo Donegal but after running wide he hung tough in the stretch.  We find out quickly what he has to offer this weekend against some heavy hitters.

EMMANUEL is 2/2 with some quality speed figures; I need to see more as he’s had little competition.

WHITE ABARIO ran well in the Holy Bull, but he benefited by the trip, also concerned if Saffie can win outside of Gulfstream.

PAPPACAP I am looking forward to seeing how he performs in the Risen Star, has the rail so he should be positioned for a run should the pace get hot up front.

SHIPSATIONAL looked good in the Sam F. Davis from mid-pack on a track that favors early speed.  Needs perfect trip but he gets on the radar with his finish.

EPICENTER in the Lecomte got the perfect trip on the front with reasonable fractions but just seemed to hang in the stretch.

EARLY VOTING looked like Secretariat dominating a poor field in the Withers, needs to take another big step forward.

 

Top (50) Official Kentucky Derby Point Standings as of 2/15/22

Rank Horse Points Trainer
1 Classic Causeway 16 Brian Lynch
2 Pappacap 14 Mark Casse
3 Epicenter 14 Steve Asmussen
4 White Abarrio 12 Saffie Joseph Jr.
5 Mo Donegal 12 Todd Pletcher
6 Rattle N Roll 10 Kenny McPeek
7 Jack Christopher 10 Chad Brown
8 Make It Big 10 Saffie Joseph Jr.
9 Smile Happy 10 Kenny McPeek
10 Slow Down Andy 10 Doug O’Neill
11 Major General 10 Todd Pletcher
12 Dash Attack 10 Kenny McPeek
13 Early Voting 10 Chad Brown
14 Call Me Midnight 10 Keith Desormeaux
15 Courvoisier 10 Kelly Breen
16 Barber Road   8 John Ortiz
17 Commandperformance   6 Todd Pletcher
18 Mackinnon   5 Doug O’Neill
19 Giant Game   4 Dale Romans
20 Simplification   4 Antonio Sano
21 Cabo Spirit   4 George Papaprodromou
22 Osbourne   4 Ron Moquett
23 Tough to Tame   4 Chris Davis
24 Un Ojo   4 Tony Dutrow
25 Zandon   4 Chad Brown
26 Shipsational   4 Ed Barker
27 Smarten Up   4 Alfredo Velazquez
28 Ben Diesel   3 Dallas Stewart
29 Wit   2 Todd Pletcher
30 Kavod   2 Chris Hartman
31 Cooke Creek   2 Jeremiah O’Dwyer
32 Red Knobs   2 Dale Romans
33 Midnight Chrome   2 Tyler Servis
34 Gilded Age   2 Bill Mott
35 Ignitis   2 Wayne Lukas
36 Volcanic   2 Mark Casse
37 Surfer Dude   2 Dallas Stewart
38 Del Mo   2 Doug O’Neill
39 My Prankster   1 Todd Pletcher
40 American Sanctuary   1 Chris Davis
41 Kevin’s Folly   1 Tom Amoss
42 Mr Jefferson   1 Mike Trombetta
43 Grantham   1 Mike Maker
44 Bourbon Heist   1 Ian Wilkes
45 Unbridled Bomber   1 Jim Ryerson
46 Sir London   1 Simon Callaghan
47 Galt   1 Bill Mott
48 Trafalgar   1 Al Stall Jr.
49 Il Belator   1 Jose Bautista
50 Strike Hard   1 Matthew Williams

Source: https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/leaderboard

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