We’re heading to Churchill Downs for 10 races on a sloppy track, and half the card is made up of maiden races — so there are going to be plenty of questions to answer. With five maiden races, the Smart Sheets become especially useful as Rich and Terry dig into Back Bullets, Bullet and Go, First Timer ratings, 2nd Race Parability, speed, pace and improvement patterns to help make the unknowns a little less unknown. Then there’s the sloppy surface. We’ll be watching the early races closely to see how the track is playing, whether speed is holding and which running styles appear to have the advantage before making assumptions about the rest of the card. Maiden races. Sloppy conditions. Plenty of uncertainty. That’s exactly where finding an information edge can matter most.
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Smart Sheets Explanations: https://horseracingtoday.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/HRTSmartSheetsExplanations.pdf
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Race 1
6 Furlongs – Stalkers, Rail Fair, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Fair, 8+ Tough
Terry’s Picks
5 – Braums Run: Finished in the money in 3 races out of 4 career starts, winning 1; Has a high % winning trainer; Switches to a high % jockey.
3 – Divine Truth: Won last race at Keenland; Highest last race speed rating; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
1 – Detention: Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Bullet 4F workout (Oct-26).
Longshot:
6 – Ten Mile House: A neck from being undefeated in 2 career starts; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Alternates:
2 – Ez Pal
4 – No Autographs
Rich’s Picks
3 – DIVINE TRUTH – SIM FAV and Top TOTAL PACE – room for more in 3rd career start
2 – EZ PAL – on the lead with a standout C ZONE
5 – BRAUMS RUN – SIM Speed # fav – getting better by the race – Jose
6 – TEN MILE HOUSE – a neck away from winning both races
Race 2 – Female
1 1/16 Miles – Early Speed, Outside In
Terry’s Picks
5 – Thea: Finished in the money in 2 out of 2 races at Keenland, winning 1; Highest last race speed rating (tie).
2 – Tiffany Twist: Drops off claim; High % winning trainer wins 35% Dropping off claim; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Good 4F workout (Oct-24).
1 – Fugitive Star: High % winning trainer and Jockey; Early speed running style helps chances.
Longshot:
8 – Spotty Showers: Can improve while returning to a route; Highest speed figure at today’s distance; Strong jockey stats.
Alternates:
3 – Windy Bay
4 – Bright Lady Day
Terry’s Suggested Wager
$.50 Pick 4: 2,5/1,5,9/1,4,6/6,8,12,14
Cost: $36.00
Rich’s Picks
1 – FUGITIVE STAR – Most upside with standout C ZONE
5 – THEA – SIM FAV, SIM Speed and Top TOTAL PACE –CD 2/1-1-0
2 – TIFFANY TWIST – biggest in race edge +7 LS – 2nd up
7 – CORA’S LEGACY – tough call over many other – shot in 3rd up
Rich’s Suggested Wager
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,2,5/3,4,6/2,6/5,6,8,10,13
Race 3
1 1/16 Miles – Early Speed, Outside In
Terry’s Picks
1 – Southern Whisper: Highest last race speed rating; Drops in class today; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
5 – Mr. All in: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
9 – Page Two: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; High % winning trainer and Jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Stakeholder: Strong trainer and jockey stats; Trainer wins 18% when moving up one class; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternates:
6 – Max Is Him
3 – Lifes Reward
Rich’s Picks
4 – STAKEHOLDER – Yes horse – consistent ok works getting ready
3 – LIFES REWARD – YES horse maybe better in 3rd up – most upside
6 – MAX IS HIM – another YES horse – don’t look like it but could be leader
1 – SOUTHERN WHISPER – TLRSP# +3 and gets Jose – needs to improve though
Race 4 – Female
7 Furlongs – Early Speed, Outside In
Terry’s Picks
6 – Winning Matters: Won last race at Churchill; High % winning trainer and Jockey; Good 3F workout (Oct-26).
1 – I’m a Little Crazy: Drops in class today; Can improve at the shorter distance; Bullet 5F workout (Oct-28).
4 – Belle Ofthe Dance: Won last race at Keenland; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Longshot:
2 – Tanya’s Momentum: Won last race at Churchill; High % winning trainer and Jockey; Perfect at today’s distance.
Alternate:
3 – Alta Avenue
Rich’s Picks
6 – WINNING MATTERS – left arrow where maybe too much ES for the rest +8 EP
2 – TANYA’S MOMENTUM – most upside potential in just the 3rd start
4 – BELLE OFTHE DANCE – on the other end – if the pace is hot +10 LS
1 – I’M A LITTLE CRAZY – bullet work with an 11 length CD win
Race 5 – Female
6 Furlongs – Stalkers, Rail Fair, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Fair, 8+ Tough
Terry’s Picks
12 – Jackie’s Player: Finished 3rd (on Turf) in last race; Blinkers added today; Good 4F workout (Oct-29); Strong trainer and jockey stats.
8 – Modifly: First time starter whose Dam has 5 winners from 6 starters and 1 stakes winner; Breeding suits today’s sprint distance; High % winning trainer wins 20% Dirt starts; Strong jockey stats.
6 – Tapit Nitro: Drops in class today; High % winning trainer wins 27% when taking a Maiden-to-Maiden Claiming; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
14 – J Z’s Not Again: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Highest last race speed rating; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Alternate:
1 – Fan’s Choice
Rich’s Picks
5 – LUCKY DIAL – top rated 1ster vs all noes and pair of maybes
13 – FIERY RUFINA – 2nd rated 1ster
10 – SHE’S WILLIN – 3rd rated
6 – TAPIT NITRO – closest to Par and the biggest drop
Rich’s Suggested Wager
$0.50 Trifecta: 5,6,10,13/5,6,8,10,13/5,6,8,10,13
Race 6
1 1/16 Miles – Early Speed, Outside In
Terry’s Picks
4 – Gun for Glory: Finished 2nd in both career races; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Good 5F workout (Oct-24).
2 – Barrel Roll: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; High % winning trainer wins 31% in 2nd route race; Good 4F workout (Oct-29); Strong jockey stats.
6 – Lithos: Ran 2nd vs tougher in last race; Drops in class today; High % winning trainer; Switches to a high % jockey.
Longshot:
7 – Steve Wood: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Highest last race speed rating; Trainer wins 23% when taking a horse from a Sprint-Sprint-Route.
Alternates:
9 – Colonel Anderson
3 – Scouting Report
Rich’s Picks
8 – LUCKYLOUN – 2nd race Parability
9 – COLONEL ANDERSON – 3.0 first timer with a back bullet
7 – STEVE WOOD – ran well in last – has two strong works since
4 – GUN FOR GLORY – tough call over the 6 – taking the CD experience
Rich’s Suggested Wager
$2 Exacta Key Box: 8/4,6,7,9
Race 7
1 1/8 Miles off Turf
Terry’s Picks
7 – Kelz: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey and this combo in last 14 days (14 4-2-1); Good 4F workout (Oct-29).
9 – Ryu: Ran 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in only start; Dam has 3 winners from 6 starters (but 0 Turf winners); High % winning trainer wins 24% of Maiden Sp Wt; High % winning Jockey.
3 – Comprehensive: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Longshot:
2 – Massachusetts: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Alternate:
8 – Stormin the Beach
Terry’s Suggested Wager
$.50 Pick 4: 2,3,7,8,9/1,3/4,8/3,7,9,10
Cost: $40.00
Rich’s Picks
12 – SAFETY OFF – 2nd race Parability leader
3 – COMPREHENSIVE – yes horse with +6 ES
9 – RYU – 2nd best 2nd race parability
8 – STORMIN THE BEACH – the last of the pair of YES horses – only 4th race with good works
Rich’s Suggested Wager
$0.50 Pick 4: 3,8,9,12/3,8/1,2,3,4,8/7,10
Race 8 – Female
6 Furlongs – Stalkers, Rail Fair, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Fair, 8+ Tough
Terry’s Picks
3 – Freaks Go: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Highest speed figure at today’s distance; High % winning trainer and Jockey; Bullet 5F workout (Oct-24).
1 – Transatlantic: Finished in the money in 4 races out of 5 career starts, winning 1; Can go the distance.
6 – Tearin’up My Heart: Finished in the money 2 races out of 4 starts at Churchill, winning 1; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Longshot:
7 – No Time Left: Ran 3rd in last race; Blinkers added today; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Alternates:
5 – Scythia
8 – In for a Spin
Terry’s Suggested Wager
$20.00 Win: 3
$10.00 Exacta Box: 1/3
$5.00 Exacta: 3/1,5,6,7
Cost: $60.00
Rich’s Picks
3 – FREAKS GO – one of those SIM Speed dominant horses +8
8 – IN FOR A SPIN – longshot with the most upside
1 – TRANSATLANTIC – 3 starts in a row for the first time boom/bust – distance 3/1-2-0
4 – LEL DITTY – not much else left – take the bomb wit 1st Lasix – trainer 3/6
Race 9 – Female
1 1/16 Miles – Early Speed, Outside In
Terry’s Picks
8 – Ile de La Cite: Won 2 races in a row going for a hat trick; Can go the distance; High % winning trainer and Jockey.
4 – Clairita: Likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 100% of the races, winning 100% of the starts and distance will not be a problem as he has finished in the money in 86% of the races, winning 29% of the starts.
3 – Resist: Finished in the money in 4 races out of 5 career starts, winning 2; High % winning trainer and Jockey and this combo in last 14 days (2 2-0-0).
Longshot:
7 – Clay Basket: Finished in the money in the last 6 races, winning 3 races; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Alternates:
5 – Being Myself
10 – Jump a Fox
Terry’s Suggested Wager
$10.00 Win: 8
$5.00 Exacta Box: 4/8
$5.00 Exacta Key Box: 8/3,4,7
Cost: $50.00
Rich’s Picks
2 – ATHALIAH – fires 1st up – workouts are sparkling
8 – ILE DE LA CITE – improving by the race – big pop potential in 2nd up
4 – CLAIRITA – how the run at CD is how they run at CD 2/2
3 – RESIST – rerunning her KY Oaks effort would be enough here
Rich’s Suggested Wager
$2 Exacta Key Box: 2/1,3,4,8
Race 10
1 1/16 Miles – Early Speed, Outside In
Terry’s Picks
9 – Ferrous: Ran 2nd vs similar (on Turf) in last race; Good 4F workout (Oct-29).
10 – Frozenknife: Ran 2nd vs similar in only start; Good 4F workout (Oct-24); High % winning trainer and Jockey.
7 – Mr. Popove: First time starter whose Dam has 6 winners from 10 starters and 2 stakes winners; High % winning Jockey; Sharp 5F workout (Oct-28).
Longshot:
3 – Hickory: Ran 5th in last race as the favorite but has a High % winning trainer who wins 32% with beaten favorites; Blinkers added today; High % winning trainer and Jockey.
Alternates:
6 – Intermediation
1 – Asap
Rich’s Picks
10 – FROZENKNIFE – 2nd race Parability
7 – MR. POPOVER – 1ster with a back bullet vs noes and 2 other maybes
2 – FIESTABOWLFOREMIKE – 3rd race bounce back
9 – FERROUS – 3 SP # increases – just missed in lass on turf
Rich’s Suggested Wager
$2 Exacta Key Box: 10/2,3,7,9
Terry’s Best Bet of the Day
Churchill Downs – Race 8 – #3 Freaks Go
3 – Freaks Go: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Highest speed figure at today’s distance; High % winning trainer and Jockey; Bullet 5F workout (Oct-24).
Terry’s Best Bet Wagers
$20.00 Win: 3
$10.00 Exacta Box: 1/3
$5.00 Exacta: 3/1,5,6,7
Cost: $60.00
