Australian spring racing heats up at Caulfield Racecourse with major stakes races including the How Now Stakes, Sandown Guineas, C.F. Orr Stakes, Move To Strike Thoroughbred Club Stakes, and the R.M. Williams Handicap. Deep fields, good-going specialists, powerful closers, and class-tested runners make this one of the most competitive international cards of the early season. Rich brings pace, form, and value analysis; 22-1 Tom brings elite global insight. Together, they deliver one of the most complete breakdowns you’ll find anywhere.
RACE 6 – How Now Stakes
Tom’s Picks
2 – Aviatress
Returns to the races with a win in her barrier trial. Last time out, she closed for tenth to run third in a listed race at 1100m. She won or placed first both times up, beating the boys over 1200m. She will have to overcome an outside draw to have a chance.
13 – Proved
She won five out of six races but was outfinished in a front-running effort and ran fifth last time out. She should be the speed. She is advancing to the next class, but she has achieved some impressive race times at 1200m. She has a good draw to get to the front.
3 – Pop Award
She won her barrier trial after running sixth in a Group Two race. She likes the distance and the soft going and has done well after a short layoff. One to watch the odds on.
Rich’s Picks
6 – Merrigold – decent trip in first up – winner 3/4 in second ups – nice price
8 – Vestas – ML fav – class drop and 3rd up – about a half second faster in last
1 – She’s Bulletproof – a little class drop – distance 11/5-4-0
13 – Proved – proved she likes the distance, 3 times, 3 wins
RACE 7 – Sandown Guineas
Tom’s Picks
12 – Sheza Alibi
Once the opening came, she shot through and won. She’s never been out of the money in her six races and adds distance today. She’s shown a liking for the soft going, and I think she’s the one to beat.
9 – Centu Cavaddi
He didn’t get the best of it last time out, running fifth and was far back. This was his first attempt at today’s distance. He’s only a maiden winner but has run for third at 1400m before the last race. If you toss last, he will have a better chance today.
2 – Burma Star
Got up in time after running at the back of the field to win his last race. He tries this distance for the first time and has run well on the soft or heavy going.
Rich’s Picks
11 – Top Reward – we’ll start with a flyer – impressive debut win – big step up – but team must think they have something special here
12 – Sheza Alibi – ML fav – never off the board in 6 – third up following a strong win
2 – Burma Star – hasn’t gone a mile yet – extra distance helps – might prefer softer footing
5 – Tagline – never off the board in 5 starts – 3rd at a mile in lone try
RACE 8 – C.F. Orr Stakes
Tom’s Picks
1 – Jimmysstar
After a good win last time out at 1300m, he returns to 1400m, where he has had many good runs. After running third in the Everest, he will be the big odds-on favorite here. In a smallish field, and with the likelihood of soft going, he should win here.
7 – Vinrock
He is the speed of the race and won a recent barrier trial on the soft going. His last win was on the soft going at 1400m in a listed race. His last race was a bit of a mess, with an equipment failure during the race. The bottom line is the jockey is going to set a sensible pace for him to run his best race. They add blinkers to help the horse.
2 – Evaporate
He finished well last time to get third but was tardy from the starting gate. The race was at 1500m at Royal Randwick. He has a win in a Group 2 in September and a second in a Group 1 in October. But is this his best distance, considering he has only one win from five starts? In a small field, he will get a run in the money.
Rich’s Picks
7 – Vinrock – got to take a crack at the two favorites – 3/3 at the distance
5 – Angel Capital – one of the favorites – All or Nothing type – just don’t like them as much at 5/2 as 5-1 or more
1 – Jimmysstar – winner 4 of 5 at the track – ML fav – but beatable on a good track – better on softer footing
RACE 9 – Move To Strike Thoroughbred Club Stakes
Tom’s Picks
2 – Inkaruna
She ran second last time out; she got caught late but kept going to the end. She conceded weight to the winner. She added blinkers last time and has a better draw today. There is a negative aspect to never running on the soft going, but it is bred to enjoy it. I will take a chance off the last race.
7 – Tomato Toatie
She comes into this race off of two barrier trials with a second and a win. She won her last two races at a lower level. Her draw is never a disadvantage because she has speed, but she’s only run on the wet going and won on heavy going. She needs some racing luck in here.
4 – Tupakara
How would you like a horse that has run nine times, finished in the money five times, and never won but has placed in group races? This is the case with her. Based on her record and the company she’s been racing against, I have to put her in the money again today.
Rich’s Picks
1 – My Gladiola – been playing against the favorite so far – looks tough to beat – 2-1 feels like a steal vs these
8 – Surf’s Up – a win and 3 seconds at the distance – including one at Caulfield
10 – Thanks Gorgeous – odds say no way – but solid first up and resume says better in the 2nd up – benefits from more distance
16 – Choir Point – showed enough improvement in her second start – going longer helps
RACE 10 – R.M. Williams Handicap
Tom’s Picks
7 – Taken
He has won four out of five races in open company, showing some early pace. Moves up slightly in class today, but is on a roll and likes the soft going. He’s drawn in three games, giving him all the chances to win again.
13 – Spione
He closed well in his first start back, finishing second last time. Added distance today and has won and placed on soft and heavy ground. Second race since the layoff will show more improvement today.
8 – Stylish
She prepped in two barrier trials, running second in both. She won twice first up and likes the soft going. This is her distance, but she hasn’t fared too well at this track. At 10-1, I will add her.
Rich’s Picks
11 – Roadcone – 2nd up improvement – 2/4 at the distance – all ITM on Good
7 – Taken – ITM 9/9 and can run on any footing – 1st up 2/0-1-1
13 – Spione – should improve in the 2nd up – winner 2/3 on good – win/place in 2 at distance
15 – Dark Simba – enough tactical speed to be well positioned – huge question 1st up
