Foreign Friday heads Down Under to Caulfield Racecourse in Melbourne, Australia, for five major stakes races featuring some of the country’s most accomplished runners, rising stars and intriguing longshot possibilities.
Saturday’s card features the HKJC World Pool Northwood Plume Stakes, Henley Homes Schillaci Stakes, Sportsbet Might And Power, Sportsbet Caulfield Guineas and Hyland Race Colours Toorak Handicap.
The handicapping challenge is especially interesting this week. Several short-priced favorites look formidable, but questions about distance, soft going, barrier draws and fitness cycles could create opportunities for bettors willing to look beyond the obvious choices.
22-1 Tom brings his traditional international handicapping approach, focusing on form, class, barrier trials, track conditions and race placement. Rich’s Ranks examine course and distance records, improvement patterns, running styles, second- and third-up performances and potential betting value.
Five stakes races. Some heavy favorites. And a few chances to take a swing at a price.
Australian Insomnia Racing is back.
Race 5: HKJC World Pool Northwood Plume Stakes – 11:35 p.m. ET
22-1 Tom’s Tips
6 – Hearcomesthestar – ran fifth last time in a Group Three against some of these runners. She has been good at this distance in nine starts, with three wins and five placings. She runs late and has won third up.
7 – Bridal Waltz – She has run second in her last two races since the layoff. She likes the soft going but has never won third up. She has run second twice in three starts. The form isn’t the question, but running second again?
14 – Nepo Baby – She ran wide and in the rear last time and held up at the start. With no clear running, she still ran a quick final time. She moves up in class and has a terrible post position, but at this price, I have to consider.
Rich’s Ranks
2 – POINT BARROW – rerun her last race and she is the winner
8 – MERRIGOLD – Reasonable time last out – better 2nd up – drops – ITM 5/6 at Caulfield
9 – GUERITE – 1st up – going to be closing – a little extra distance helps – ITM 6/7
11 – QUISEEN – barrier trial time prepping was legit – distance 8/4-0-1
Race 6: Henley Homes Schillaci Stakes – 12:15 a.m. ET
22-1 Tom’s Tips
1 – Jigsaw – It is very hard not to back this favorite. He hasn’t raced since April, but he won his barrier trial as prep for this race. He comes in off a winning streak, has the inside post position, likes the soft going, and has won first up.
4 – Spywire – first up, he did not run much of a race and the benchmark 100 level but has run second four times from four races second time up. He has won at this distance and likes the soft going.
6 – Grand Larceny – He comes into this race off two barrier trials, winning the first and running third in the latest. He has done well at the distance and ran third in his last race, a Group One event. The post position is good, but the soft going raises questions.
Rich’s Ranks
1 – JIGSAW – not much other speed in here – maybe Lone E
9 – STREISAND – sizeable weight break – resumes says maybe way better in 2nd up
7 – INKARUNA – much faster last out – could be better in 3rd up
6 – GRAND LARCENY – runs well first up – getting a decent price
Race 7: Sportsbet Might And Power – 12:50 a.m. ET
22-1 Tom’s Tips
6 – Sheza Alibi – She won her last race by two-plus lengths. She has never run this distance, but her record of twelve starts, eight wins, and four places is very good. She has won third up and likes a bit of juice in the going. I do not think distance will be an issue, based on how she won last time. Big favorite again.
1 – Birdman – a nice winning effort last time out in a Group One at Caulfield. He had to do some work to get the win. He has won at this distance.
4 – Kingswood – He lost to Birdman last time, running fourth, and won his return to the races at this track in a listed race starting from post position sixteen. He has a Group One win, but for me, the top two will have to really fail for him to have a chance.
Rich’s Ranks
5 – TREASURETHE MOMENT – one crack at the heavy favorite – ITM 100% at track and distance
6 – SHEZA ALIBI – the heavy favorite and deservedly
1 – BIRDMAN – the high weight horse and won at this level at Caulfield last out
Race 8: Sportsbet Caulfield Guineas – 1:30 a.m. ET
22-1 Tom’s Tips
2 – Warwoven – I am going to try to beat the favorite with this horse. He won his last two starts, moving from 1200m to 1400m. The last race was a Group One. He has never run at this distance, but with a good starting post and staying close to the pace, he will run a good race.
7 – Central Europe – I do not understand why tactics were changed in the last race and the horse was put on the lead. It did not work, and he finished tenth of twelve. A good post position, a better trip, and added distance will help this horse. Top rider/trainer.
5 – Blind Raise – he will be the favorite but has not run this distance. He is 4-for-5 in his career and won his last race going away at Caulfield. He will stay close to the pace and move forward.
Rich’s Ranks
5 – BLIND RAISE – could get a great trip – forwardly placed and has late legs
2 – WARWOVEN – hard to argue here – winner 5/8 – off the board in the other 3
1 – UNIT FIVE – has run very well following a barrier trial – a win, 2nd and 10th – won debut too
8 – SOMETHINGS BURNIN’ – just missed last out – 5 high quality races in 6 starts
Race 9: Hyland Race Colours Toorak Handicap – 2:10 a.m. ET
22-1 Tom’s Tips
13 – Changing Colours – comes into this race after a Group 2 win by one length at Caulfield. She has won four in a row and has done well on soft going. She rose in class from a benchmark 84 race before winning the last race. The distance is ideal, having run five times, winning three races, and placing in the money in the other two races.
9 – Sun God – returned to the races with a less-than-great performance, finishing eighth. His trip was not clean, so he will improve. He has won three times at this distance, and this is his second try in a Group One company race. Big price with a chance to show up today.
2 – Lady Shenandoah – she will run her race and not win. She has run fourth in her last two starts at 1400m so will adding distance help? She does have a win and a placing from two starts at this distance. The big question for me is winning on the soft going.
Rich’s Ranks
5 – FEROCE – maybe not the best post – but was much faster last out
13 – CHANGING COLOURS – won 4 in a row – including G2 last out in lone Caulfield run
12 – WELCOMETOTHESHOW – won 3 of 4 at a mile – lone miss was at the Graded level
15 – SALTY PEARL – going to close and has performed well at the distance and track
Where Tom and Rich Agree
There are some interesting overlaps between the two approaches, particularly in the middle of the card.
Race 6 – Jigsaw
Both Tom and Rich put #1 Jigsaw on top in the Schillaci Stakes.
Tom likes the winning streak, successful barrier trial, inside post and first-up record. Rich sees another potential advantage: Jigsaw may be the lone early speed in a race without much pace pressure.
Both also include Grand Larceny, who offers a possible alternative at a better price.
Race 7 – Sheza Alibi
Tom puts the heavy favorite Sheza Alibi on top, while Rich acknowledges her credentials but tries to beat her with Treasurethemoment.
Rich’s argument is the track-and-distance record, where Treasurethemoment has finished in the money every time.
Both handicappers also include Birdman, who arrives off a Group 1 victory at Caulfield.
Race 8 – Blind Raise vs. Warwoven
This could be one of the most interesting matchups of the night.
Tom takes Warwoven, looking for the upset after consecutive victories, including a Group 1.
Rich sides with Blind Raise, expecting a favorable forward trip and enough late speed to finish.
Both have the same two horses at the top — just in reverse order.
Race 9 – Changing Colours
Tom puts Changing Colours on top after four consecutive victories, including a Group 2 at Caulfield.
Rich ranks her second behind Feroce, whose improved last-out speed makes him interesting despite a potentially difficult post.
Changing Colours is one of the strongest points of agreement on the card.
Five Stakes Races, Five Different Handicapping Puzzles
Caulfield gives us a little of everything this week.
The Northwood Plume offers improving mares, late runners and a few interesting prices.
The Schillaci presents a potentially dominant favorite who could control the early pace.
The Might And Power asks whether anyone can beat Sheza Alibi.
The Caulfield Guineas brings together talented younger horses facing new distance questions.
And the Toorak Handicap gives us a competitive finale where improving form, soft-going ability and mile records could make all the difference.
Tom is willing to challenge some of the favorites.
Rich is looking for pace advantages, course specialists and horses sitting on the right improvement cycle.
And with the final race scheduled for 2:10 a.m. Eastern, this one certainly earns its nickname.
Australian Insomnia Racing.
Five stakes races.
Foreign Friday at Caulfield.
Let’s find something worth staying awake for.
