Horse Racing Today at Parx – Monday, May 2, 2022

Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips

Terry and Rich discuss…

Horse Racing Picks

PARX Full Card Picks

Terry’s Finger Lakes Best Bet

Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s

Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Finger Lakes

Parx Horse Racing Tips and Commentary

Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping

Race 1

1 – Enforcer – Showed early speed in his last race at PARX Racing at 6-1/2 furlongs and now cuts back to 6-furlongs – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters -He has a High % winning jockey any the trainer in the last 14 days has this record (4 2-0-0).

4 – The Great Gazoo – He ran 2nd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today and has a trainer who wins 19% of the time when bringing a horse back after being 46-90 days away and has a trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (5 3-0-0).

3 – Knight Legend – He has the highest last race speed rating, switches to a high % winning jockey and a bullet 4F workout on 27Apr Bel 4f ft :48 B 1/10, second bullet workout in a row.

5 – The Talented Mr U – He finished 3rd in last race and the shorter distance will help.

Alternate:

2 – Stash My Cash

6 – Thrills and Chills

 

Race 2

4 – Fifty Sheas Ofgrey – He ran 6^th after being bumped at the start –The trainer in the last 14 days has this record (4 2-0-0).

3 – Maclean’s Legacy – He finished 4th in the last race only missing by a length and received the highest last race speed rating (tie)- He has a jockey in the last 7 days has this record (16 4-1-2).

1 – Richie Goes Global – Comes in from Penn Nation and is a closer who may have a good set-up with the speed in the race.

7 – Field Officer – He has competed at PARX Racing, done ok in the past and the shorter distance will help.

Alternate:

6 – The Method

Race 3

4 – Imagism – She finished 3rd in her last race, received the highest last race speed rating and has a trainer who wins 42% of the time when taking a horse from Maiden to Maiden Claiming races.

6 – Snappy Ride – She has a high % winning trainer and may improve with Lasix added.

1 – One That Got Away – She is a first-time starter; the Dam has 3 winners from 3 starters and 2 stakes winners, and she has some decent workouts.

2 – Decisive Cause – She finished 4^th in her last race missing by only 1-3/4 lengths at 5-1/2 furlongs, she is a closer and now goes to 6-furlong which will help her, and she may improve with Blinkers being added today.

Alternate:

3 – Lovely Melayra

 

Race 4

7 – Fast Intentions – She finished last in her last race, not sure what happened but she drops in class and gets a jockey change, claimed last race and the trainer wins 32% of the races after claiming a horses in their next race. – Has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and can improve at the shorter distance.

2 – Wishes and Dreams – She ran 2nd vs similar in last race and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance -The jockey in the last 7 days has this record (16 4-1-2) – She may improve with Blinkers added today.

6 – Zensational Dixie – She has been improving in each race, speed ratings increased every race in the last four races – She has the highest last race speed rating and drops in class today.

8 – Salsa Rita – She has early speed, a high % winning trainer and drops in class today.

Alternate:

5 – Dazzling Speed

3 – Cotton Candy Cutie

 

Race 5

2 – French Toast – He has the highest last race speed rating, drops in class today, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and trainer who wins 25% of the time when bringing a horse back for the 2nd race off a layoff.

6 – Mr. Tuttle – He switches to a high % winning trainer and jockey – Returning to a route should help and the trainer in the last 7 days has this record (4 2-0-0).

3 – Beach Bandit – He won a race at PARX Racing, went up in class and disappointed in that race and now goes back down in class to try and win again.

5 – Jacks American Pie – He finished 4^th after coming into the stretch wide and now drops in class today.

Alternate:

1 – Grazely

4 – Peter G. Fox

 

Race 6

6 – Wheresthepassion – He won his last race at PARX Racing easily, the trainer in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-0-1) and his trainer wins 26% of the time when bringing a horse back from a 46–90-day break.

4 – One Niner Tango – He won his last race at PARX Racing earning the highest last race speed rating and has a High % winning Jockey.

3 – Yankee Joe – He has a high % winning trainer and may improve at the shorter distance.

2 – Instant Chaos –He has a Jockey change who in the last 7 days has this record (16 4-1-2).

Alternate:

5 – Frank N Ducky

1 – I’m Blaming You

Race 7

6 – Breezy Gust – He put in a clunker last race and now drops in class today – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and the trainer wins 22% of the time when bringing a horse back from a 46-90-day break.

3 – Jump Shot –He ran a nice 2^nd in his last race at PARX Racing and switches to a high % winning trainer who wins 27% of the time with the 1st race after a claiming the horse.

7 – Otis Otis Otis – He has finished in the money in the four out of the last five races, winning the last one at PARX Racing– He has the highest last race speed rating and a Jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (16 4-1-2).

1 – Kadens Courage – He finished 3rd vs similar in last race and the rail post is winning at 27% clip.

Alternate:

2 – Drena’s Bullet

4 – Jw’strickymischief

Race 8

6 – Get the W – He has finished in the money in five out of the last six races at PARX Racing, winning the last two – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and the trainer wins 27% of the time with the 1st race after a claiming the horse.

5 – Excursion – He finished 4th in last race at PARX Racing, switches to a high % winning trainer who in the last 14 days has this record (4 2-0-0), switches to a high % winning jockey and has a bullet 4F workout on 27Apr Prx 4f ft :48 B 1/24.

1 – Tio Wil – The rail post is winning at 27% clip, he has high % winning trainer and a good 4F workout on 27Apr Prx 4f ft :48.1 B 4/24.

3 – Mach Trial – He is a closer who has the highest last race speed rating.

Alternate:

7 – They Shot Sonny

Race 9

4 – Cant Stop This Man – He has finished in the money in eight out of the last nine races, winning the last three at PARX Racing – The trainer who wins 22% of the time when bringing a horse back to race after they won their last race.

7 – Noble Commander – He has finished in the money in two out of the three races at PARX Racing – He has a high % winning trainer and a good 4F workout on Apr-26.

8 – Town Jak – He finished 2^nd in his last race only losing by a neck. He has the highest last race speed rating and switches to a high % winning jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (13 7-1-0).

1 – Irish Riviera – He comes in from Laurel to compete at PARX Racing where he has done well in the past – The rail post is winning at 27% clip, and he has a high % winning trainer.

Alternate:

3 – Wild Caramelo

6 – Geebert

Race 10

1 – Wild Delight – She ran 3^rd in her last race and has a good workout on 26Apr Parx 4f ft :48¨ B 2/20.

9 – Ilknur – She ran 3^rd in her last race, switches to a high % winning trainer who in the last 14 has this record days (5 2-0-1) – She should improve while returning to dirt as her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.

7 – Onthisharvestmoon – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race at PARX Racing and has a high % winning Jockey.

4 – Paper Mansion – She won her last race at PARX Racing and has a Trainer/Jockey in the last 14 days has this record (5 3-0-0).

Race 11

6 – S Man – He has finished in the money in six out of the seven races, winning three at PARX Racing, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 100% of the races when he drops a horse off a win.

3 – Call Fitzroy – He won a race and then finished 3rd vs similar – He does well at PARX Racing and can handle the distance.

2 – Nimble Beast – He finished 4^th after coming extremely wide into the stretch earning the highest last race speed rating and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.

1 – Lucky Hero – He likes the track, and the distance, has a high % winning trainer and the highest speed figure at today’s distance.

Alternate:

9 – What’s to Blame

8 – Samaronti

Rich’s Ranks

Race 1 – 6 furlongs, 117 races, 76 won by speed, 37 w2w -PP: 7 from rail, otherwise inside out bias

3 – KNIGHT LEGEND – MSW dropper from 80k, track drop from AQ, two bullet works, Kendrick winning at 30%

4 – THE GREAT GAZOO – missed as the favorite, tr John Servis rebounds at 32%, drops in class, PARX 6/0-3-0

1 – ENFORCER – ran better fractions last out despite going from 6 to 6 ½ furlongs, Top PARX #s

5 – THE TALENTED MR U – gets a weight break, also ran better 6.5 vs 6 times last out and could be better in round two off the bench

 

Race 2 – 7 furlongs, 81 races, 55 won by speed, 20 w2w -PP: Fair 1-7, slight 8+ penalty

4 – FIFTY SHEAS OFGREY – 2^nd off the claim for tr Michael Pino, missed as favorite last two

3 – MACLEAN’S LEGACY – was better ATB in his last, other to tie for TLRSP# and his resume says he’ll be the same or better in his second after a layoff

1 – RICHIE GOES GLOBAL – should be 1^st based on name alone, but not the biggest fan of 19/1-2,3 record

5 – HACHACHA – is the only of the remaining 3 to show improvement in last

 

Race 3 – 6 furlongs, 117 races, 76 won by speed, 37 w2w -PP: 7 from rail, otherwise inside out bias

4 – IMAGISM – BB – Tom Carley Drop, tr Daniel Velazquez winner 6/14 MSW to MCL, 4/10 1^st time MCL, TLRSP#

5 – BELLA MARIA – can’t look past tr Ernesto Padilla-Preciado won 4/9 with 1st time starters, works are OK

1 – ONE THAT GOT AWAY – Eddie C angle, bullet work two back with a maintenance after, just can’t take the rail at 6f despite it bustin a pick 4 last week, 78k horse

3 – LOVELY MELAYRA – comes in from Turfway, 1^st off the claim for Steven Krebs, tough call over #s 2,6, but I’ll take the better jockey of the three

 

Race 4 – 6 furlongs, 117 races, 76 won by speed, 37 w2w -PP: 7 from rail, otherwise inside out bias

7 – FAST INTENTIONS – 1^st off the claim for tr Jamie Ness, dropping 2 classes, 32% winner dropping 2 and 33% 1^st claim and drop off the claim – slight weight break with EP

1 – LUSCIOUS LOLA – much faster fractions last out 6.5f v 6f the previous race – rail at 6f?

6 – ZENSATIONAL DIXIE – TLRSP# and drops in class, last race was better than it looks as 4f and 6f fractions were about 1 second last at 7f vs 6.5f, 4SP# increases

2 – WISHES AND DREAMS – PARX 11/2-1-3, distance 11/3-0-4, slightly better numbers for 1^st half mile of last race

 

Race 5 – 1 1/8 miles, 3 races, 2/3 won off the pace, 1 w2w -PP: two from 4-7, 1 from 8+

2 – FRENCH TOAST – missed as the chalk in his last, tr Juan Guerrero rebounds at 32%, 300k horse, drops in class here too off TLRSP#

6 – MR. TUTTLE – 1^st off the claim, tr Michael Pino wins at 20%, Eddie C angle again, bullet then maintenance and then to the track

4 – PETER G. FOX – probably crazy here but… ran better fractions at 1m70y than 6f, jy Adam Bowman +2.42 ROI in routes

1 – GRAZELY – jy/tr Luis Ocasio and Louis Linder, Jr +3.06 ROI together, missed as the favorite in the last, 22% angle for Linder, Jr

 

Race 6 – 6 furlongs, 117 races, 76 won by speed, 37 w2w -PP: 7 from rail, otherwise inside out bias 

5 – FRANK N DUCKY – missed by a neck in his last, 3^rd after a layoff, last 3^rd race off the bench was the best by far

4 – ONE NINER TANGO – not the biggest fan of horses coming off MCL wins, but TLRSP# and better ATB

6 – WHERESTHEPASSION – same MCL concern here, gets weight break, PARX 5/1-1-1

1 – I’M BLAMING YOU – rail concern at 6f, 100K horse that’s been facing better, jy tr combo of Jeremy Laprida and Ralph Riviezzo ITM 6/8 w/ +9.15 ROI – wow!

 

Race 7 – 6 ½ furlongs, 64 races, 39 won by speed, 19 w2w – PP: strong rail bias, 2+ fair

6 – BREEZY GUST – off since March 7, 12f of fairly fast works since, PARX 12/4-2-2, OK off the bench

1 – KADENS COURAGE – 7lb weight break vs all but 1 other, much better in 2^nd half of last outing, high win rate rail

3 – JUMP SHOT – 1^st off the claim, tr Haleem Lee winner 5/18 (28%), better 7f final time by about 1 second in last, ITM 6/1-2-2 at distance

7 – OTIS OTIS OTIS – won last with TLRSP# going w2w, much better #s ATB

 

Race 8 – 6 ½ furlongs, 64 races, 39 won by speed, 19 w2w – PP: strong rail bias, 2+ fair 

1 – TIO WIL – gets the high win rate rail, 2 works after being claimed, rail winning at 27%

5 – EXCURSION – 1^st off the claim for tr Michael Pino, 20% winner, two good works since claim, including bullet in April 27

6 – GET THE W – another 1^st off the claim, tr Haleem Lee winner 5/18, always well bet and usually in the mix late

3 – MACH TRIAL – ran better fractions in his last at 6 ½ v 6f last, 2/4f #s were better

 

Race 9 – 6 ½ furlongs, 64 races, 39 won by speed, 19 w2w – PP: strong rail bias, 2+ fair 

3 – WILD CARAMELO – BOX – has the top PARX#s by a decent margin, 7 pound break vs many of these with early beast, 22f works since March 1

4 – CANT STOP THIS MAN – ITM 9/3-3-2 at Parx, 8 HQ races in last 9 outings,

7 – NOBLE COMMANDER – has some of the best back class, blew a tire in his last on March 15, one decent work since is the other to carry less weight

8 – TOWN JAK – switches to F Pennington, TLRSP#, claimed, 1^st for tr Ronald Dandy, better fractions and pace #s across the board

 

Race 10 – 6 furlongs, 117 races, 76 won by speed, 37 w2w -PP: 7 from rail, otherwise inside out bias 

7 – ONTHISHARVESTMOON – been competitive vs tougher, a couple decent works since last race, PARX 5/1-1-1

6 – ET’S MOON MAIDEN – been facing tougher, last race was better than it looks with better running times

1 – WILD DELIGHT – jy/tr combo of Jose Gomez and Robert Reid, jr ITM 5/6 with +0.47 ROI – could be better in 2^nd off the bench

4 – PAPER MANSION – tough call over #9, strong work since breaking maiden in F Pennington first ride, he’s on again today

 

Race 11 – 7 furlongs, 81 races, 55 won by speed, 20 w2w -PP: Fair 1-7, slight 8+ penalty

6 – S MAN – LS – PARX 9/3-2-2, had higher pace# ATB in his last on March 14, maintenance work since, winner 3 of last 4

2 – NIMBLE BEAST – TLRSP#, another Paco Lopez mount, but not a GP shipper, best PARX #s by a little

10 – GOLDENLINEOF – going to take a shot here, 3 SP# increases, a little better in the first ½ mile of his last race

9 – WHAT’S TO BLAME – jockey upgrade to Ruben Silvera, 0-5 at PARX, could be better in classic 3^rd off a layoff, better fractions in last