Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Horse Racing Picks
Churchill Downs Racing Full Card Picks
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Mahoning Valley
Churchill Downs Horse racing Picks and Commentary
Santa Charles’ Selections
- 5,1,4,3
- 8,12,10,13
- 6,2,1,7
- 4,7,8,11
- 3,5,7,4
- 1,6,4,2
- 12,9,4,3
- 8,6,5,4
- 9,7,3,1
- 5,6,2,11
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, mostly fair PPs with a slight bonus for 4-7
1 – MONTAUK DADDY – has a +2f edge and drops multiple classes here, last race major 4f & LP improvement in last
5 – ALFIE SOLOMONS – some really nice CD works getting ready for her 1st CD race, Mike Smith angle
2 – RETALIATED – best of the rest, distance 13/1-3-3
3 – GUARD – lone PC horse vs all others that want to be forwardly placed
Race 2: 1 Mile – Bias: 50/50 Outside In Bias with 4-7 best
12 – LET ME LOVE YOU – BTN FAV with a little better early fractions and improved 2/4 pace#s
4 – GABE – maybe better in career start two, showed some pace in debut, best EP/LP combo
8 – GRIMES – 1st off the claim for Steve Asmussen – solid CD run in last
10 – DAY TRADE – decently bet in debut, off to an OK start, steady works since, Geroux and Cox
Race 3: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, mostly fair PPs with a slight bonus for 4-7
7 – DONYA KNOW IT – second off the bench and has some strong works since her last
5 – BAYSHORE FOXES – carried her speed longer in her last and was better ATB
3 – ALSANAH – not the biggest MCL riser unless… TLRSP# in first at CD, track was sloppy
2 – SAVE GRACE – got MCL 30k win in last, 1st off the bench, bullet work since
Race 4: 1 Mile – Bias: 50/50 Outside In Bias with 4-7 best
5 – FROSTED DIAMOND – CD 5/0-2-1 was better in the 1st half mile of her last. 21f works since last
4 – NIMRODS – Left Arrow horse was well bet in debut, dropping multiple classes, 23% angle for 9% winning tr, top EP/LP Combo
12 – MINT – Lonely EP horse w/o 14 in, 1st four races were good enough to win this, lots of problem at the start of last, was well bet
3 – ALFIO – was better ATB, TLRSP#, top LP so going longer should help
Race 5: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Tactical Speed with and Inside Three Bias
5 – LEBLON – has the best CD#s and has a couple of bullet works in his last two
4 – CAN’T HUSH THIS – tie for the TLRSP# and better pace #s in first half mile
6 – CARMICHAEL – lonely EP horse with the most LP, likely better 2nd off the break with a bullet between
3 – KING’S OVATION – been off for 7 months – plenty of workout on schedule and OK getting ready, tough call over the 7
Race 6: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, mostly fair PPs with a slight bonus for 4-7
1 – BET HE’S READY – TLRSP# and room for more in 2nd off the break according to resume
3 – INSOLITO – has a +2/4 EP edge and a decent maintenance workout since last
4 – CYCLONE – has a +LP advantage with better 2/4f pace #s in fist off the bench
7 – BOURBON CREED – looking at the NOV 5 workout, was very good, tough call over the 2
Race 7: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, mostly fair PPs with a slight bonus for 4-7
12 – HIGH CLASS – last race SP# way above any other experienced horses, regression is possible
3 – EFFORTLESSLYELGANT – bullet and go first time starters, $475 horse
2 – EXHIBIT HALL – $1.6 million horse, OK works, Luis Saez tells me they believe they have a chance
4 – MALIBU TOAST – hard call over the 1, but the 2/4f pace#s showed crazy improvement in last
1 – BABY GOT BACKSPIN – drops from a 200k NGSTK – consistent performer – worried not a lot of upside potential
Race 8: 1 Mile – Bias: 50/50 Outside In Bias with 4-7 best
2 – SUMMER SPLASH – TLRSP#, 1st off the claim – 18% winner for 10% tr Juan Cano
6 – RUNWAY MAGIC – strong fractions in claiming win, tr Joe Sharp winner 11/33 when staying in claiming
8 – RODERICK – consistent high end performer and drops in class, should be involved from start to finish
4 – EMERALD EXPRESS – Left Arrow horse with the 2nd best EP/LP combo
Race 9: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, Rail Penalty, little bonus 2/3, 4+ fair
9 – MARSALIS – lonely P horse that is a head and ¾ lengths from being undefeated in 4, +O
1 – WAYAKIN – popped for a big effort in last, has a bullet workout since, in form for sure
3 – HE’SMYHONEYBADGER – consistent performer, average race is good enough to win here, strong LP#s
6 – COASTAL DEFENSE – been off for more than a year, bullet and for says he could be ready to go, CD 4/2-1-0
Race 10: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, Rail Penalty, little bonus 2/3, 4+ fair
6 – GIROOVIN – better fractions at 1m v 7f, top LP in the field
5 – HAROLD’S CLOUD – could be lone speed and has some nice works since debut
9 – OWN THE FIELD – +EP/LP combo, some good CD works for 1st race since late Aug at Saratoga
2 – SLAMMING IT – let’s take a shot with Cox and Geroux, tr Cox hits at 24% MSW
Churchill Downs Way to the Winners’ Circle Pace Worksheet
