Horse Racing Today – Churchill Downs Picks – Wednesday, September 28, 2022

Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips

Horse Racing Picks

Churchill Downs Full Card Picks

Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s

Picks with the Professor’s Parlay of the Day

Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Delaware Park

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks

Charles Tango Cash’s Picks

1.  7,3,2,6
2.  4,5,2,1a
3.  3,2,1,7
4.  9,5,1,6
5.  7,2,6,3
6.  5,4,3,7
7.  5,1,7,6
8.  2,3,5,1a
9.  3,12,4,5

Rich’s Ranks

Race 1 – 7 Furlongs

7 – PLEASE BE KIND – has a ++2/4 edge versus the experienced horses, TLRSP#, Drops in class, tr Paul McGee winner 35% MSW to MCL

3 – SOMEBODY LOVES ME – has a ++LP advantage & EP/LP versus the experienced horses

5 – LITTLE SISTER SUE – 1^st time starter with bullet and go, Florent Geroux rides, hmm!

6 – BRAGANZA – 1^st timer w/ real nice workout on September 23 – like the July 23^rd work too

Race 2 – 1 1/16 Miles

1A – CENTURION – has the top LP, could be better in 3^rd off the bench, most consistent performer

5 – KEEPCALMCARRYON – TLRSP# was at CD, 25f works since last race, should be fit, 1^st time gelded

4 – ICARUS – 1^st off the claim for tr Thomas Amoss 19% winner, some better fractions last out, maybe better in 2^nd off the bench, decent CD works for 1^st CD run

6 – DEEP STATE – drops in class, distance no issue 2/0-1-1, 1^st time claiming for tr Brian Lynch 25% winner, lone CD race was OK, works just OK too – concerning

Race 3 – 1 Mile

2 – WICKED SECRET – Left Arrow Horse, Julien Leparoux rolling so far at CD, gets off the 1 to ride to stay here, hmmm?

1 – PRINCELY – way back at the start of his last, strong rally, needs a better start

3 – LET ME LOVE YOU – better fractions in last on turf at KD, pressed on dirt in debut, expecting more today

5 – OVERLY D’ORO – 2^nd start was good at CD, better 2/4 pace#s in last, but Belterra?

Race 4 – 6 Furlongs

8 – JESUIT – LS – CD 2/1-1-0, some decent works at CD, Mike Smith angle

1 – ATRAS – left arrow horse, flipping from turf to dirt – 30% winner for tr Brad Cox, likely to move forward in R2 off the break, but 2/0-0-0 at CD

9 – TRAINER PLEASE – +EP/LP edge, flashed speed on Santa Anita dirt, good Keeneland works getting ready to run on dirt again after the last 8 on grass

6 – FRISCO LINE – 1^st off the claim for tr Brittany Vanden Berg, hits at 34%, not a fan of MCL 10 riser, but bullet and go – let’s rip

Race 5 – 7 ½ Furlongs

4 – ABSOLUTE LOVE – BB – 5 SP# increases, crushed in the last 2 at CD, off since June 29, two real nice works on Aug 28, Sep 4, a pair of maintenance works since, CD 16/5-2-4, Best CD#s

1 – AWESOME INDRA – 1st start with Saffie Joseph, jr, 23% angle, a pair of real fast works at Toga getting ready

3 – ENCHANTED NILE – one for one at CD, ITM 10/3-1-4 on a fast track, Distance 7/3-1-1

2 – MOHAYLADY – tough call over the 7, lone closer in a field of EP and P horses – should pick off a lot of speed horses as they fade

Race 6 – 7 Furlongs

5 – OURNATIONONPARADE – TLRSP#, a pair of strong works, including bullet in last, should remain sharp

3 – SUPREMACY – strong CD#s, 1^st time claiming for tr Brad Cox, 28% angle

2 – WAYAKIN – drops in class, last 3 at CD – two huge wins and a second by 3/4s, most likely improves in 2^nd off the break

6 – OUTLIER – tough call over the 1, but all or nothing at CD 5/3-0-0, good work at CD training track

1 – ASH FLAT

Race 7 – 6 Furlongs 

5 – CAMP AKEELA – Chris P angle for maidens, MSW to MCL – 27% winner for tr Thomas Amoss

10 – STAR POSE – another MSW to MCL dropper for D Wayne Lucas, some really nice works between races, her best by far

7 – JOB’S NOT FINISHED – looking at the August 27 and September 2 works

6 – TIME FOR CHAMPAGNE – bullet and go first time, 3f in 35.3 is fast

Race 8 – 1 1/8 Miles

1A – KITTANSETT – flipping from turf to dirt 27% for tr Paulo Lobo, ++LP and + EP/LP, 1 for 1 at CD at 1 m, extra distance helps today

3 – INTREPID HEART – drops from 200k NGSTK, CD 9/2-3-1, 19f of works since Aug 28

2 – WEST WILL POWER – TLRSP#, consistently high performer, triple digits 3 of last 4 – only 3 hit 100 but just once

5 – HELIUM – should be very competitive at this level, won his first three races, a bunch of 2nds and 3rds since

7 – ETHICAL JUDGEMENT

Race 9 – 1 1/16 Miles

4 – IBERVILLE – twice at the distance 2/1-1-0, top EP/LP combo

3 – ICE BLAST – a lot of deviation in performances, can run away with this at his best or finish last at his worst

13 – TONAL IMPACT staying in claiming ranks after a win for tr Chris Hartman – 24% winner

8 – VASARIANO – at some point will take all the bullet works from the training track to the real track

Churchill Pace and Post Position Report

Churchill PP and Pace Worksheet 9-28-22

Churchill Downs Pace Worksheet 9-28-2022