Horse Racing Today – Kentucky Downs Picks – Thursday, September 8, 2022

Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips

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Kentucky Downs Horse Racing Tips and Analysis

22 to 1 Tom’s Tips

Race 1

11 – Fracing Nancy – SCRATCHED

Off the claim of 30k at CD, comes into the race with 4 works and change of equipment, blinkers off

In 3 of the 4 races, she’s shown speed and won at TP in a hard-fought battle in April

Nothing in a NW2 at CD

Then entered for the claiming race

Sire hasn’t done much overall but has winners on the turf

Mare was a PA bred and ran in PA during her racing career. She produced turf horses including one horse who ran and won in Russia in at their top-class level

 

7 – Condiment Girl

Won at KEE in first start on the dirt going 7F, showed good pace

Next start at CD, forwardly placed and then backed up to run last 6^th by many, many lengths behind, break from May

Good works, or so they appear, a private training track

Sire has produced good runners.

Mare side, has produced runners that mainly run at the claiming level and won on the turf

The drop back in distance helps, she appears to be more of a sprinter. Looking for a price

 

5 – Tea Olive

Has been racing strongly in all 4 races, running first, second, third and fourth

Won at first asking, layoff, ran 4^th at Ellis, layoff, BEL race, ran 2^nd, you get the pattern

She will show speed and has won on the front end

Trained by Wesley Ward, not one of his first stringers but certain useful, well placed

No turf races but…

Sire ok with turf horses but better on the dirt

Mare was NY bred who placed in stake race and ran on both surface, 2 foals the other has run 1 race as a 2yr (unplaced)

 

 

Race 2

7 – True Prodigy

First time starters with good even works with the last being 1:00.2Bg at CDT

Bred for the turf with sire a top turf runner with a few turf winners for young sire

Mare placed in graded race, ran 37 times. Foals 4 to race, 2 winners

 

9 – Spanish Doubloon

Not much last out, running 5^th at 7F

Better effort before on the turf at Ellis, run 3^rd showing some speed as the favorite

Sire good with many turf winners

Mare raced twice and didn’t win, foals there are 4 to race, 1 winner

Coming back to the turf, should have a better effort

 

4 – Sundance

Good speed early, nothing late losing by 14+L

Strong works at training track

Switch to Joel Rosario should improve chances

Winner?

 

Race 3

7 – Smoke Lightening

Won first out at PID going wire to wire in head/head race

Shipped to WO and ran 2^nd on turf stakes race next out at 62-1, this time coming from beind

Well placed for a win and get top jockey at KD so far

 

5 – Toddchero

Won a dirt race at LS first out by leading all the way without issues

Taken to PRM, ran 2^nd in stakes race but no match for the winner. So far, that 2yr old winner is undefeated IA bred

Good work coming into the race a RP

First try on the turf and should like it

Florent Geroux picks up the mount, a positive

 

3 – Limited d’Oro

Won at first asking at BTP very impressively and then a layoff

3 works coming into this race with on at :35.3B then next 2 they backed off

I will take a price shot here with a horse that should like the turf

 

Race 4

9 – Rithm Nic

Won first out by 6+L at CBY and was between horse during some of the running

Should like the turf but …

James Graham rides this gelding

This is a restricted race for KEE yearling sales for $250k

 

10 – Kbcya Later

After 4 tries, won last out a SAR making all the running on the turf and good speed number

Fast work coming into this race :47.2B

Outside always helps at KD and should be the favorite off last race

 

5 – Wico

Interesting that an Irish bred horse went through the KEE yearling sale

Has not won yet, but ran 3^rd twice

Both efforts on the turf – SAR and KEE

Wesley Ward trained and taking the blinkers off, he always starts his young horses with blinkers in the first (or two) races, they don’t win, then they coming off

Maybe get the win here, odds are most likely the 2^nd choice

 

Race 5

11 – Pyron

Even effort last out in stakes race at CNL, drops here to allowance company

Last 5 races in stakes races include graded stakes races

He won on the turf at FG

To get into the race, they have to put him in to be claimed

6yr horse, not gelding, interesting. Someone will claimed him, I think

Joel Rosario to ride for Albert Stall

 

12 – Wayakin

No turf experience but bred to like the turf

He’s been in the money 8 of his 14 races with 3 wins

Not much last out  but won at CD the race before

Move to the turf, 4-1 morning line makes him one you have to notice because trained by Mike Maker and ridden by Irad Oritz

 

8 – Unified Report

Good works coming into the race, well consist works

Ran 3^rd at CD last out vs OC80k, wide most of the race but no real threat to win, layoff

He won his first 3 races of his career in restricted state bred company then tried a graded race and nothing

Won at FG in March, then the got too aggressive again, trying stakes company

Better spot but is this the right spot and has won at the OC50k level so not for the win

 

Race 6

10 – Up to Something

I think so, because he ran a good race last out in the slop at Ellis and rallied up and went passed his rivals

Dirt race, now for the turf and he is bred for the turf

Sire is top sire with winners on all surfaces and many stakes winners

Mare is graded stakes placed and produced some winners too

Outside post, good works, should be ready for top effort

 

4 – Showgirl Lynne B

Winners of her first 2 races by sitting behind the leaders and going on by at the top of the straight

Second race out was a minor stakes race

Both races on the AW at GP but breeding says she should love the turf

Picks up Florent Geroux for Robert Hess and should be tough in here

 

8 – Grand Oak

Ran 2^nd in first start in the mud at KEE, actually a good effort because the winner is in this race

Won on the turf next out by 4+L while being challenged

Then they shipped her to Ascot for the Queen Mary, nothing, she beat 3 horses in a 21 horse field and was never in the race

Last out at WO, ran 4^th in stakes race after layoff

Has some tactical speed to make this race interesting, not the favorite but should attract the bettors based on her races

 

Race 7

11-Wet Paint

Very good works coming into this race

Sire is produced many good horses and BC Classic Winner

Mare is a turf winner and graded stakes placed at 8.5F turf race

Geroux and Cox team up

Godolphin owned, leading owner here last season

 

7 – Stay Lost

First start at SAR going 1 1/16 on turf, ran 6^th moving up midrace but didn’t finish, needed start

Turf work at SAR for prep to this race

Sire was a BC Classic winner and produced turf winners

Mare was a turf winner in New Zealand, her other foal to race was a turf winner

Trainer has no winners in the country yet but maybe here?

 

4 – Mended We Stand

Ran 1 mile on the dirt for first start running 2^nd with good start, stay behind the leaders but unable to get to the winner

Move to the turf is better spot

Sire champion turf winner and produced winners early in his stallion career

Mare won twice and won on her first start, this is second foal to race, nw first foal

 

Race 8

10 – Onenightstandards

Last race in January was a 1/2L lost in OC35k 2^nd going 1 ½ race

Claimed for 80k at BEL and other race for new owners was at 1 ½ too

Layoff works have been good to very good especially the 1:00.1, :59:2B & 1:00B then 2 maintenance works

Drop in distance is good and qualifies for the race be the 2^nd win on the turf was a win at SA for 25k race

Good spot if ready to go and generally Mike Makers horses are ready of layoff

 

5 – Happy Boy Rocket

Awful effort last out at CD going 11^th. Layoff after, toss last

The only other poor effort was in a graded stakes race

No turf but has breeding on the mare side to like turf

Good works and trained by Bill Mott with Joel Rosario riding

Watch out

 

7 – Penner Ash

At 3yr just made his debut winning at IND by 5L with a strong bid going wire to wire going 1 mile turf

This son of Curlin will be a strong contender in this race

 

Race 9

5 – Private Creed

Rough race last out with bumping on a number of times in the running

Still finished 3^rd by 2L

Won maiden at Ellis by sitting behind the early pace and moving strongly to hold on

Blinkers on will help with the bumping issues

Gets Joel Rosario to ride

Short price?

 

2 – Sharp Aza Tack

2 races 2 wins both on the turf

Stakes win at MTH last out by 7L

Won maiden at SA by 2 1/2L in a tougher race going wire to wire

On fast work of the 2 preps for this race – :47.2B at KEE

One to beat

 

8 – Half a Chance

Won last on the dirt should good speed as she did in first start on the turf running 2^nd by 3/4L

Flashing speed again and Wesley Ward leaves the blinkers on

Speed numbers were the same for those 2 races

I like the outside speed at KD

Anything can happen with 2yo those

 

Race 10

6 – Five Prizes

8 tries and 2 seconds 1 third, so far

Tried turf once as a 2yr old in first start at SAR over yielding course in Aug 2021

A bunch of dirt tries in Florida were better but again

Last three races at distance have not been good

Why pick? Blinkers off, she’s run better in the past with no blinkers

Breeding says she should do well on the turf

After 8 starts, you would think Todd Pletcher would recommending drop this horse into a maiden claiming race, but switch surfaces make a change

Irad Oritz to ride

At good longshot for this combination

 

3 – Suffice

One race at BEL was ok for a first effort, close to the pace early and then nothing left

That was in NOV 2021

Layoff, good work schedule, changed trainers, getting ready for better effort

Another one who should love the turf, let’s see

 

4 – Paris Kentucky

Ran back of the field (again) and move forward at the end to run 4^th by 3L

Blinkers off for this race, that was a 1 and done try last out

12 starts and 1 second 3 thirds

Try again and maybe that longer race is the key for this late running horse

Rich’s Ranks

Race 1 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 23 races, 17 won off the pace, 2 w2w – PP: 1 from the rail, 2/3 bonus, 4-7 penalty, 8+ same bonus as 2/3

4 – PISTOL – should be close to the pace and has a +LP advantage, 1^st time on the grass, has 2^nd best pedigree #s

6 – LAUGH AND PLAY – is the only EP horse in the field, top pedigree score, Irad rides, isn’t he winning every race lately?

10 – SONICUS – another 1^st time turfer, improved last in each of all his three races

5 – TEA OLIVE

 

Race 2 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 23 races, 17 won off the pace, 2 w2w – PP: 1 from the rail, 2/3 bonus, 4-7 penalty, 8+ same bonus as 2/3

Stright up just playing trainer angles for the conditions

4 – SUNDANCE – tr Rodolphe hitting at 23% in 2^nd career start, robust EP #s and was decently bet in his debut

5 – MURKY – tr Wesely Ward wins at 29% with 1^st time starters

10 – ICONICUS – tr Wayne Catalano winner 6/14 2^nd grass races, probably a big price

6 – RECON

3 – SAM STORMY

 

Race 3 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 23 races, 17 won off the pace, 2 w2w – PP: 1 from the rail, 2/3 bonus, 4-7 penalty, 8+ same bonus as 2/3

8 – STUD LOVIN – won his debut by 7 ¾ lengths and was well bet, top pedigree turf score by a decent margin

7 – SMOKE LIGHTENING – left arrow horse, closer that should be more forward today, dropping in from NGSTK where he missed by just ¾ lengths

6 – PANAMA – coming in from England, well bet in both races and both were on good surface, looks like he can rate or close

5 – TODDCHERO – working well for his first race since early July, finished a well beaten 2^nd in NGSTK last out

 

Race 4 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 23 races, 17 won off the pace, 2 w2w – PP: 1 from the rail, 2/3 bonus, 4-7 penalty, 8+ same bonus as 2/3

5 – WICO – LS – left arrow horse, tied for the top pedigree scores, better fractions in last

4 – MO STASH – was well bet in hard fought debut win, not usually a fan of MSW risers, but tr Victoria Oliver hits at 29% after the maiden win

7 – ANGEL OF EMPIRE – has almost ++++ LP advantage based on debut, really like the Aug27 work at CD fastest of 98

10 – KBCYA LATER – TLRSP#, tr Joe Sharp wins 2^nd grass rate at 30%, speed might not be the best fit

 

Race 5 – 7 Furlongs, 3 races, all off the pace – PP: 1 from 2/3, 4-7 and 8+

10 – SUPER DESIGN – has a win at KD in one try and it was his best performance, tends to run well fresh

7 – LIGHT FURY – turf 12/5-2-3 second start for trainer Eddie Kenneally wins at 18%, could be better in 2^nd off the break

11 – PYRON – interesting that Rosario rides here instead of the 10 who he won on in the 10s last race

6 – FORE LEFT –

 

Race 6 –  6 ½ Furlongs, 23 races, 17 won off the pace, 2 w2w – PP: 1 from the rail, 2/3 bonus, 4-7 penalty, 8+ same bonus as 2/3

4 – SHOWGIRL LYNNE B – won a minor NGSTK in last, undefeated in 2 on AW, usually translates to turf, a lot of speed in here and has some of the best LP#s

1 – PROMISE OF HOPE – trying grass for the 1^st time, been well bet in both starts, toss out last G# start and run back to debut

3 – MOVE IT BABY – benefits from all the speed scratches,

7 – HAPPY GAL

 

Race 7 – 1 Mile, 22 races, 14 won off the pace, 1 w2w – PP: 1-3, 1 win from each, 4-7 big bonus, 8+ penalty

This is an anything can happen race for sure

10 – STELLAR LADY – better early in last, TLRSP#, trainer Kenneth McPeek hits a 41% in 2nd turf try

4 – MENDED WE STAND – pressure horse with the top LP and EP/LP combo, issues in debut that if she straightens out could lead to winners’ circle

11 – WET PAINT – looks like the top 1^st timer in the race, Cox and Geroux is a winning combo with a $0.13 ROI

2 – DON’T GO CHANGING – closed after getting off to a slow start in debut, a better start is all that’s needed

 

Race 8 – 1 Mile, 22 races, 14 won off the pace, 1 w2w – PP: 1-3, 1 win from each, 4-7 big bonus, 8+ penalty

10 – ONENIGHTSTANDARDS – distance 3/2-0-0, has raced well coming off the bench like today, decent works getting ready

12 – MAZUMA – not the biggest fan of MSW risers after 5 tries, but always close at the end and very consistent performer

1 – MR. TIP – not a fan of the rail, but kind of hard to write off Irad right now, missed by just a ½ in only KD run, was 1 mile, distance 6/1-2-1

7 – PENNER ASH –

 

Race 9 – 6 ½ Furlongs, 23 races, 17 won off the pace, 2 w2w – PP: 1 from the rail, 2/3 bonus, 4-7 penalty, 8+ same bonus as 2/3

2 – SHARP AZA TACK – undefeated in a pair of races, much better fractions in race 2, TLRSP# by a decent amount

5 – PRIVATE CREED – better times last out, has some of the most late kick in a race filled with early speed

6 – ACCIDENT
1 – BOURBON THERAPY

 

Race 10 – 1 5/16 Miles, 7 races, 5 won off the pace, 2 w2w – PP: Rail and 8+ bonuses 8+ best, 2/3 fair, 4-7 penalty

12 – PERSONAL BEST with 10 scratching, only PC horse, I think one of them wins, a lot better late in his last, top LP and has a bullet work between races

11 – QUALITY STAR – TLRSP#, another that should have his best at the end, but was a lot better early in last, 2^nd by a neck, Chris P angle

3 – SUFFICE – left arrow horse, been off since November, if she comes out with same EP as debut, should have the lead after 6f, right fractions is all it would take to hold on

1 – SOLIDARITY

Kentucky Downs Pace Worksheet (Races 1-7)

Pace Worksheet Continued (Races 8,9,10)