Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Horse Racing Picks
PARX Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Picks with the Professor’s Parlay of the Day
https://www.youtube.com/c/PickswiththeProfessor/videos
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Finger Lakes
PARX Horse Racing Picks and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
6 – Dubrovnik – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating (tie), has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
8 – Two Color Map – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today, has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and has a trainer who wins 21% of the starts in maiden claiming races.
2 – Social Joe – He has finished in the money in three out of nine starts at PARX Racing and drops in class today.
3 – Kane – He is a closer who has finished in the money in two out of five starts at today’s distance and switches to a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Sette Stelle
1 – Renee’s Z Va
Race 2
1 – Ahsad – He won his last two races in a row at PARX Racing now going for a hat trick, has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and the rail post is winning at 20% clip.
4 – Genghis – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today and has a high% winning trainer.
5 – Magnetron – He drops in class today and is going at a distance that better suits him.
7 – What’s to Blame – He has finished in the money in five out of twelve starts at PARX Racing and has won two starts at today’s distance.
Alternate:
9 – The Right Path
8 – Horse Greedy
Race 3
8 – Boat Over the Hill – He has finished in the money in his last three races at PARX Racing, finishing 3rd vs similar in his last race and today’s distance will not be a problem.
7 – Tomater Gator – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and the best speed figure in the field.
2 – Kadens Courage – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he has done well at PARX Racing in the past.
5 – Empire’s Score– He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, drops in class today, has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and has a trainer who wins 33% of the races with a horse in its 2nd start with the trainer.
Race 4
2 – D Black Mamba – He has finished in the money in seven of the last eight races at PARX Racing, winning his last race and drops in class today.
1 – One Slick Start – He had a disappointing finish in his last race after experiencing trouble, the rail post is winning at 18% clip and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
9 – Large – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, switches to a high % winning jockey and he has the highest last race speed rating (tie).
4 – American Forces – He drops in class today, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and has a trainer who wins 18% of the races when shipping into race.
Alternate:
3 – Fearless Fly
6 – Blowing Big Smoke
Race 5
7 – This Round’s Mine – She won her last race at PENN National and has a trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (2 2-0-0).
1 – Boca Royalty – She has finished in 2nd in the last two races at PARX Racing and has won 25% of her starts at PARX Racing.
4 – Terpeye – She does well at PARX Racing and the distance won’t be a problem.
2 – Mrs. Crews – She Drops in class today and likes PARX Racing.
Race 6
8 – Backatya – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he has a trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (21 10-3-2).
2 – Smarty John – He comes to PARX Racing to try it for the first time and has a good trainer and jockey.
4 – Center Mid Maddie – He has finished in the money in four out of seven starts at PARX Racing and the distance will not be a problem.
3 – Hotpot – He figures to improve while returning to dirt and has a trainer who wins 17% of the races when going from a route to sprint.
Alternate:
6 – Deplane
Race 7
3 – Victors Valiant – He has finished in the money in six out of nine starts this year and his early speed running style helps chances.
5 – Strong Light – He has finished in 3rd in his last three races, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he has a good 4F workout on Sep-27.
7 – Golden Wildcat – He has a high % winning jockey, has the highest last race speed rating and a has a trainer who wins 25% of the races when running a horse in maiden special weight claiming races.
9 – Marvelousmoondance – He has finished in the money in four out of six starts this year and a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (20 6-4-1).
Alternate:
4 – Supreme Being
6 – Onlygodcanjudgeme
Race 8
7 – Wolfie’s Dynaghost – He won his last race at Colonial Downs; his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he has a high % winning jockey.
8 – Tax – He has won two out of his last four races, drops in class today and has a bullet 4F workout on Sept. 25th.
6 – Mr. Einstein– He has finished in the money in his last eight starts at PARX Racing, winning two of the starts and is always competitive.
5 – Mt Suribachi – He has won four out of six starts at PARX Racing and has a good jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Shooger Ray Too
Race 9
5 – For the luv of bourbon – He won his last four races at PARX Racing, has jockey Paco Lopez who in the last 7 days has this record (20 6-4-1) and a good 5F workout (Sep-24).
2 – Beren – He ran 2nd in his last race as the favorite but the trainer wins 33% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and has a good 5F workout on (Sep-26).
7 – Repo Rocks – He ran 2nd in his last race and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
1 – Five Dreams – He won his last two races in a row at PARX Racing now going for a hat trick and the rail post is winning at 20% clip.
Alternate:
3 – Get the W
Race 10
5 – Gravitron – She won her last race and has won four out of the last six races at PARX Racing, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and a good 5F workout on (Sep-28).
16 – Sweet Willemina – She finished 3rd (on Dirt) in her last race and switches to a high % winning jockey.
7 – Deciding Vote – She finished 6th after being blocked and going wide into the stretch in her last race but closes to always being in the mix.
11 – Tightly Twisted – She finished 3rd in last race, switches to a high % winning jockey and has the highest last race speed rating.
Race 11
8 – Chub Wagon – She has never finished out of the money and has won twelve out of fourteen career starts and she has the best dirt speed among today’s starters.
11 – Bourbon Bon Bay– She is undefeated in three career starts winning the last race at PARX Racing.
1 – Oxana – She ran 2nd in her last race, switches to a high % winning jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (20 6-4-1) and the rail post is winning at 20% clip.
3 – Dr B– She won her last race, has a high % winning trainer and jockey and good 4F workout on (Sep-26).
Alternate:
5 – Fille d’Esprit
10 – Shero
Race 12
6 – Mischievous Jones – He won his last race at PARX Racing and has a bullet 4F workout on (Sep-28).
4 – Angeli Blu– He finished 3rd in his last race at PRAX Racing, has the highest last race speed rating, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and has a trainer who wins 33% of the races with a horse in its 2nd start with the trainer.
2 – He’s sosubtle – He ran 2nd in his last race, has a trainer who wins 23% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and the trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (2 2-0-0).
9 – True Dakotan – He finish in 4th in his last race after experiencing trouble and was claimed by a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
10 – Ludo
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1:
8 – TWO COLOR MAP – +EP @ 2/4F, EP/LP+, only true class dropper, tie TLRSP#, better fractions at 6 ½ v 5 ½ f
2 – SOCIAL JOE – LP+ edge, distance 5/0-1-2, pair of thirds and a fourth in last 3 at this level
1 – RENEE’S Z VA – has the 2nd best EP/LP combo in the field, rail post helps
6 – DUBROVNIK – Monmouth track dropper, tie TLRSP#, much improved late in last
Race 2:
3 – COMPOUND IT – it’s supposed to rain, he is 2 for 2 on an off track, downgrade if the weatherman is wrong
9 – THE RIGHT PATH – has the top352 LP and EP/LP combo in the field, not a fan of the winless post, tie TPLRSP#, a little better fractions last out
1 – AHSAD – dropping off the win after going w2w in last, lone EP horse
8 – HORSE GREEDY – good work on September 17. Drops multiple classes, tr Bonnie Lucas 0/12 – 6/12 ITM, tie best EP/LP combo in the field – both ++ over the next closest
Race 3:
2 – KADENS COURAGE – one of 4 left arrow horses, better 2/4 pace#s in last, better 6f fractions at 7f vs 6f
7 – TOMATER GATOR – lone EP horse, another of the left arrow types, real nice workout between races
8 – BOAT OVER THE HILL – top LP#s in the field, very consistent, distance 2/0-1-1, rallies for piece of gimmick, win – probably not.
5 – EMPIRE’S SCORE – TLRSP#, resume says 2nd off the bench likely the same as the 1st
Race 4:
2 – D BLACK MAMBA – PARX 6/2-2-2, Distance 3/1-0-2, tie TLRSP#, Drops in Class
9 – LARGE – other tie TLRSP#, 2nd best EP/LP combo, lower case Z pattern in last
1 – ONE SLICK START – left arrow horse, seems to run OK first off the break, like today, some good works getting ready
7 – SPLITZVILLE – tough call over the 3 but better off track numbers
Race 5:
7 – THIS ROUND’S MINE – sort of all or nothing at Parx 11/3-0-1, tr: Louis Linder, Jr 23% claim repeater vs 17% overall – alpha angle
1 – BOCA ROYALTY – rail is doing OK in the last month, should be involved early, both fit the bias
3 – SOUTHERN CENTS – could be the pacesetter with the 5 scratching, better 2/4#s in last
4 – TERPEYE – has a +LP edge, 4 wins in 50 career starts, 2 of them in 8 off dirt races
Raec 6:
4 – CENTER MID MADDIE – +EP advantage at 2/4f, better early in last, major drop in race won by Scaramouche who came back to win a stakes race
8 – BACKATYA – Ness & Silvera, top combo but that last was a mess, maybe better in 3rd off the bench
2 – SMARTY JOHN – 1st run at PARX, track droppers, gets really courageous if he’s close in the stretch
3 – HOTPOT – has some of the most LP and won his only off track start
Race 7:
7 – GOLDEN WILDCAT – showed major EP in his last and has a bullet work since
3 – VICTORS VALIANT – was better ATB in his last, ITM last 6
9 – MARVELOUSMOONDANCE – PARX 3/0-2-0, Distance 3/0-2-0
6 – ONLYGODCANJUDGEME – Left Arrow Horse, a real good work since last race
Race 8:
7 – WOLFIE’S DYNAGHOST – top EP/LP combo, tie TLRSP#, resume says better 2nd off the break
3 – SHOOGER RAY TOO – MTO – other to tie for TLRSP#, good on an off track
8 – TAX – track dropper – bullet work on September 25, should be better in round two off the sidelines
5 – MT SURIBACHI – Left Arrow Horse that has a +EP edge at 4f
Race 9:
5 – FORTHELUVOFBOURBON – winner of 4 in a row, PARX 16/10-1-3, TLRSP#
2 – BEREN – finished behind top pick two of two, a pair of strong works since last
1 – FIVE DREAMS – winner of two blowouts in a row, better fractions in last, chance to improve in 3rd after a layoff
7 – REPO ROCKS – is two for two at the distance, a consistent performer
Race 10:
5 – GRAVITRON – is undefeated in a pair on Parx turf, has plenty of EP in a race full of P and C horses
16 – SWEET WILLEMINA – Track Dropper from TOGA but last 4 on PARX dirt were all wins
7 – DECIDING VOTE – should be closing late, 2nd best EP/LP combo, tends to run well off the bench
11 – TIGHTLY TWISTED – TLRSP# at KD, could be better in 3rd race following a short layoff
Race 11:
8 – CHUB WAGON – PARX 9/7-2-0, distance 3/3-0-0 – not much else to say
11 – BOURBON BON BAY – is undefeated in three and 2 for 2 at the distance, better fractions last out
1 – OXANA – should compete for the lead, rides the high winning rail, PARX 3/2-0-1
3 – DR B – another PARX burner, 7/4-0-2, better fractions early in last
Race 12:
2 – HE’SSOSUBTLE – misses as the favorite in last, better in first half,
6 – MISCHIEVOUS JONES – better ATB in his last, not a fan of MCL risers, but some nice works getting ready for 1st race since June 15
4 – ANGELI BLU – TLRSP#, track dropper, distance 5/3-0-1
1 – PORSUPUESTO – left arrow horse with +4f EP edge, benefits with the scratching 5
Parx Pace and Post Position Bias
Parx Pace and Post Bias 10-3-22
Parx Way to the Winners’ Circle Worksheet 10-3-2022
Parx Way to the Winners’ Circle Worksheet 10-3-2022 (Races 9, 10, 11, 12)
Parx Way to the Winners’ Circle Worksheet 10-3-2022 Part 2
