Horse Racing Picks, Analysis, Handicapping and Tips
Terry and Rich discuss…
Horse Racing Picks
Aqueduct Full Card Picks
Hot Dog and Prime Rib Pick 4s
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Turf Paradise
Aqueduct Racetrack Horse Racing Tips and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
3 – Violent Point – Won last race AQU – Highest last race speed rating – The trainer wins 22% of the time with a Claim repeater
1 – Baba – Beaten only 1-1/4 lengths vs similar in last start – Won two out of five races at Aqueduct.
4 – Hydra– The trainer wins 21% of the time the 2nd race off layoff – Changed to jockey Dylan Davis.
2 – Starship Reina – She has the Highest speed figure at today’s distance – Her Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters
Race 2
2 – Addilyn – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race – Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters.
4 – Polished Gem – The trainer wins 21% of the time with a Claim repeater – Early speed running style helps chances – shorter distance should help.
1 – Rainbow Gal – Drops in class today – Has the highest last race speed rating – The trainer wins 25% of the time when bringing back a Beaten favorite back to race -Has the highest speed figure at today’s distance
5 – Mebs Web – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race.
Alternate:
6 – Until Now
3 – Investment Grade
Race 3
3 – Barista Vixen – Has the highest last race speed rating (tie) – The trainer wins 30% of the time in Claiming racing – Can improve with Blinkers added today
4 – My Girl Lexi – Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race receiving the highest last race speed rating (tie) – Drops in class today -The trainer wins 23% of the time the 2nd race after a claiming the horse.
1 – Whispering Rose – Likes the distance finishing 60% of the time in the money winning 20% of the races. She is one for one at the track.
5 – Amos – Drops in class today – Should improve while returning to a route – Trainer in last 14 days has this record (11 3-3-0).
Alternate:
6 – Shadolamo
7 – Viradia
Race 4
7 – Lord Brownie- Ran 2nd vs similar in last race – Has the highest last race speed rating.
6 – Waheel – Drops in class today – Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters – Lasix added.
1 – Joe Gonzalez – Dam has 2 winners from 3 starters – Breeding suits today’s sprint distance- Jockey Trevor Mccarthy in the irons.
4 – Something Majestic – Drops in class today – May improve with Lasix added.
Alternate:
2 – How You Feeling
5 – He’sgottashortfuse
Race 5
4 – Summer Bourbon –Drops in class today – Has the highest speed figure at today’s distance – The best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – Sharp 4F workout on Feb-02
3 – Gran Casique – Was beaten only 1-length vs tougher in last start -The trainer wins 27% of the time in the 1st race after a claim – Trainer/Jockey combo in last 14 days has this record (4 2-0-1).
8 – Tale of Mist – Won last race Aqueduct and has the highest last race speed rating.
7 – Dream Bigger – Drops in class today- The trainer wins 33% when dropping down 2+ classes.
Alternate:
1 – Mi Tres Por Ciento
5 – Fleet Warrior
Race 6
6 – Battalion – Won last race Aqueduct – Came off the turf last race seems to have liked it – His speed rating s have improved in each of the three races – The trainer wins 21% of the time in the 3rd race off a layoff.
3 – Two Thirty Five – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race – Finished in the money in three out of the last four races winning one
4 – Chris and Dave – He had a good year in 2021 finishing in the money in 80% of the races winning 20% of the races – Drops in class today – The trainer wins 23% of the time in the 2nd race after a claim.
2 – Air Attack – The trainer wins 27% of the time in the 1st race after a claim -Has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters – Trainer/Jockey combo in last 14 days has this record (4 2-0-1) – Sharp 4F workout on Feb-02.
Alternate:
5 – Plot the Dots
7 – Ruby Bleu
Race 7
4 – Water’s Edge- Finished in the money in all six of his career races and ran 2nd in last race – Blinkers added today – He has a good 4F workout on Feb-03.
5 – Therisastormbrewin – won two races in a row going for a hat trick -Has a good trainer and jockey.
3 – No Salt – Finished 3rd in last race and has a Sharp 4F workout (Feb-01).
2 – Hush of a Storm – Finished 3rd vs tougher (on AW) in last race – Drops in class today – High % winning trainer
Alternate:
1 – Anything Pazible
Race 8
3 – Speeding Kid – Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race getting the highest last race speed rating – Drops in class today – The trainer wins 25% of the time in the 2nd race after a claim..
5 – Belle Tapisserie – Ran 2nd vs tougher in last race – The trainer wins 21% 1st race after being claimed – Can improve at the shorter distance. -Should improve at the shorter distance – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
4 – Winning Drive – Plenty of trouble last race and drops in class today – Trevor Mccarthy is in the irons.
8 – Next Flight – Drops in class today – Decent workout on 18Jan Bel tr.t 3f ft :38 B 5/15
Alternate:
6 – Copa
1 – Cause of Action
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1 – 6 Furlongs: 107 Races, 73 won by speed, 37 w2w – PP: fair with slight inside 3 bias
1 – Baba – always well bet, tie for top EP#s, Top Pedigree, last fractions a little concerning but a good work since last
3 – Violent Point – 3rd off the bench, weight break, LRSP>PAR, Quick TA last ran Jan 28
4 – Hydra – better of the last two with only four in the field
2 – Starship Reina
Race 2 – 6 Furlongs: 107 Races, 73 won by speed, 37 w2w – PP: fair with slight inside 3 bias
1 – Rainbow Gal – top LP and EP/LP combo, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, TLRSP#, BTN FAV trainer O Noda 9/36, resume says better in R2 off the bench
4 – Polished Gem – slight, top EP#s, weight break, drop off the claim 18/59 for T Linda Rice. Workouts are concerning, Tied Top Pedigree
2 – Addilyn – missed by a neck in the last, 5/0-2-3 @ distance, 8f works since last
5 – Mebs Web – 3rd off a layoff, best of the last 3R cycle, improved fractions in last 6.5 vs 6f
Race 3 – 1 Mile: 92 Races, 71 won by speed, 25 w2w -PP: Outside to inside bias, rail penalty
3 – Barista Vixen – 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, AQ 4/2-2-0, Distance 5/2-2-1, should be better in 2nd off the layoff
1 – Whispering Rose – Top Pedigree, 19f works since Dec 27, top LP#
4 – My Girl Lexi – Fastest 1/4 Fractions, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, 12f works getting ready, last work was good
7 – Viradia – Biggest DROP 50-28, 20f workouts since Dec 24, should be close to the lead
Race 4 – 6 Furlongs: 107 Races, 73 won by speed, 37 w2w – PP: fair with slight inside 3 bias
7 – Lord Brownie – TPLRSP#, should be better in 2nd off a layoff, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions, QTA ran Jan 28, major weight break
6 – Waheel – debut SP# better than any other, showed speed, gets 1st Lasix, one of 2 Tom Carley Drops 70-28
2 – How You Feeling – workout times suggest is the better of the 1st time starters, but keep an eye on which first time starter get the early money
5 – Hesgottashortfuse – Fastest 1/4 Fractions, the other TC Drop from 70-28
Race 5 – 6 Furlongs: 107 Races, 73 won by speed, 37 w2w – PP: fair with slight inside 3 bias
7 – Dream Bigger – biggest DROP 50-28, tr: Mertan Kantarmaci 11/33 down 2 classes, 2 Fastest Opening 1/4 Fractions
1 – Mi Tres Por Ciento – LRSP>PAR, 3SP # Increases, BTN Favorite, moving up position ladder
4 – Summer Bourbon – 3rd off a layoff, always well bet, Top Pedigree, good workout on Feb 2
3 – Gran Casique – 1st since Dec 3, only 2 OK works, 1st off the claim, 40/145 tr Rob Altras, DROP 39-28, drop off the claim 9/22
Race 6 – 1 1/8 Miles: 20 Races, 13 won by speed, 9 w2w -PP: mostly fair with slight rail and 8+ bias
6 – Battalion – 3SP# Increases, 3rd off a layoff, 1/1 at AQ/Dist/Surface, Fastest 1/4 Fractions, average work since last race
3 – Two Thirty Five – 2 good works since last, 8f, top LP#s by a decent margin
7 – Ruby Bleu – 5SP# Increases, TPLRSP# at Parx, not the biggest fan of Parx to NYRA Tracks, do like K Carmouche on forwardly places horses
2 – Air Attack – 1st off claim tr; Rob Altras 28%, sharp work on Feb 2, Tie Top Pedigree
Race 7 – 1 1/8 Miles: 20 Races, 13 won by speed, 9 w2w -PP: mostly fair with slight rail and 8+ bias
5 – Therisastormbrewin – Top EP#s by a decent margin, won last at distance by 4 ¾, big beneficiary of BLEWITT scratching
4 – Waters Edge – top EP/LP combo, always well bet, should improve in 2nd off bench, good work Feb 3
3 – No Salt – Top Pedigree, top LP#s, , 8f works since last including strong Feb 1 work
2 – Hush of a Storm – only DROP 100-74, Trainer Morley w 5/14 at AQ, 4/7 w/ Jy Dylan Davis, but 0-3 on dirt – all scores on AW
Race 8 – 6 Furlongs: 107 Races, 73 won by speed, 37 w2w – PP: fair with slight inside 3 bias
5 – Belle Tapisserie – top EP#s, all dropping but #1, biggest DROP 52-28, 1st off the claim 58/274 Linda Rice, always well bet, mostly good works
3 – Speeding Kid – TPLRSP#, 2nd start with tr J Englehart 21/65, Fastest 1/4 Fractions, QTA ran on Jan 22,
1 – Cause of Action – weight break, only other rail run in last 10, won at AQ at 6f
4 – Winning Drive – 3rd off layoff, ITM 9/13 @ distance, 2 average works since last race
