Humpday at Horseshoe Indianapolis brings a 9-race card loaded with uncertainty, featuring 6 maiden races where anything can happen. When that many horses are still searching for their first win, chaos isn’t a possibility—it’s the expectation. That’s where Smart Sheets comes in. This full-card breakdown uses Smart Sheets to identify: Horses most likely to be forward at the quarter mile Pace scenarios in unpredictable maiden races Total Pace and C-Zone advantages Simulated odds vs the morning line Profile of a Winner indicators for lightly raced runners Maiden races are where the betting public often gets it wrong. Limited form, unknown upside, and unpredictable development create opportunities for those who can spot the right signals. Today’s focus: Find the horses that are actually live Identify overlooked contenders Capitalize on mispriced runners Build smarter tickets in chaotic races If you’ve ever struggled with maiden races, this is the type of card where the right approach can make all the difference. 🎥 Watch now and see how Smart Sheets helps turn chaos into opportunity.
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Terry’s Picks
Race 1
3 – I’malittlethirsty – Won the last 2 races in a row going for a hat trick; Strong trainer stats and jockey stats.
5 – Dreaming Girl – Drops in class today; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
1 – Prayer’s Beauty – Likes Horseshoe Indianapolis, finishing in the money in 50% of the races, winning 25% of the starts; Can handle the distance, finishing in the money in 60% of the races, winning 20% of the starts.
Longshot
8 – Shesmyhuckleberry – Ran 2nd in last race; Early speed running style helps chances so the shorter distance will help; Good 4F workout (Jul-03).
Alternate
4 – Jane Plain
Race 2
4 – Darkestachievement – A closer who can catch the speed; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
8 – Morning Power – Won his debut race at Horseshoe Indianapolis; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Jammin Justice – Likes Horseshoe Indianapolis, finishing in the money in 71% of the races, winning 14% of the starts; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot
5 – Conference Calling – Drops in class today; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie); Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Alternate
2 – Purdy Darn Good
Suggested Wager
$1.00 Pick 4: 2,4,5,6,8 / 6 / 2,4,6,7,8 / 6,9 — Cost: $50.00
Race 3
6 – Miss Complicated – Highest last race speed rating; Breeding suggests she will like the grass; Drops in class today; Has a high % winning jockey.
8 – Good Conduct – Strong trainer and jockey stats; Bullet 4F workout (Jul-08).
2 – How About Abby – Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race; Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot
7 – Cinquante Cinq – First time starter whose breeding suggests she will like the grass; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Alternate
4 – Wujood
Suggested Wagers
- $20 Win: #6 Miss Complicated
- $10 Exacta Box: 6 / 8
- $10 Exacta: 6 / 2,7,8
- $5 Exacta Box: 2,6,8
Race 4
2 – Watcher – Won last race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Good 4F workout (Jul-07).
6 – Tesouro de Pirata – Finished in the money in 3 career races, winning 1 race; Strong jockey stats.
7 – Miss Susan B – Finished in the money in the last 3 races, winning 1 race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot
4 – Parking Lot Pours – Won last race at Horseshoe Indianapolis; Strong jockey stats.
Alternates
- 8 – Seeyouinabit
- 5 – Hoosier Promise
Race 5
9 – Figurine – Drops in class today; Can improve at the shorter distance; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
6 – Voluntold – Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Highest last race speed rating (tie).
1 – Le Bien Le Mal – Rail post is winning at a 22% clip; Best Turf Speed is close to the average winning speed; Has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot
7 – High Grace – Drops in class today; Dam has 3 winners from 4 starters (0 turf winners); Has a high % winning trainer who wins 20% of the races when shipping in.
Alternate
10 – Oondiri
Suggested Wager
$1.00 Pick 4: 1,6,7,9 / 5,11 / 4 / 1,4,5,6,8,9 — Cost: $50.00
Race 6
5 – Forever Release – Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
11 – Bigtimejustice – Finished 3rd vs similar in only start; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 20% of dirt starts; Bullet 4F workout (Jul-07).
10 – Obviously Precious – Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot
3 – Soxit Toem – First-time starter whose dam has produced 4 winners from 5 starters; Breeding suits today’s sprint distance; Strong jockey stats.
Alternates
7 – Lil Gitana
- 9 – Evening Charm
Race 7
4 – Tokajii – Ran 2nd in last race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Seen You Later – Drops in class today; Highest last race speed rating; Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – My Lunar Charm – Beaten only 2.00 lengths vs similar in last start; Has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot
3 – Speight Knight – Ran 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in only start; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Alternates
- 9 – Engine Sol
- 5 – Cover Art
Race 8
1 – Last Moment – Has a high % winning trainer who wins 30% with horses making their second turf start; Strong jockey stats.
4 – Redactor – First-time starter with a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Shuggy – Highest last race speed rating; Best Turf Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot
8 – Olivetti – Drops in class today; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Alternates
- 6 – Deerfield
- 9 – Cantis
Race 9
1 – Kissin Carter – Ran 3rd in debut, missing by only a head.
7 – GV Medio Million – Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – GV Kingstone – Nice workouts leading into today’s debut.
Longshot
4 – HH Jess Being Krazy – Strong trainer stats.
Alternate
3 – AP Lovely Corona
Terry’s Best Bet of the Day
Race 3 – #6 Miss Complicated
Highest last race speed rating, a significant class drop, and breeding that suggests she should improve on the turf make Miss Complicated Terry’s strongest play of the day. She also lands a high-percentage jockey and appears well positioned to take advantage of this softer spot.
Rick’s Picks
Race 1
5½ Furlongs – 47% Wire-to-Wire – Inside 3 and 8+ Speed
4 – JANE PLAIN – To the front and see you later as the standout C ZONE horse.
1 – PRAYER’S BEAUTY – Closest to par in the race; could pop or drop in her second start.
3 – I’MALITTLETHIRSTY – Riding a two-race winning streak and showed improved early pace and fractions.
2 – SHESO ELITE – Tough call over the 8, but grades slightly better overall on the Smart Sheets.
Suggested Wager
$1 Double: 1,4 / 2,5,6,8
Race 2
5½ Furlongs – 47% Wire-to-Wire – Inside 3 and 8+ Speed
8 – MORNING POWER – Won debut in impressive fashion while posting strong early fractions.
2 – PURDY DARN GOOD – TLRSP# +4 and has shown the ability to pair strong efforts.
5 – CONFERENCE CALLING – Class dropper; projected pacesetter with a strong C ZONE and plenty of upside.
6 – JAMMIN JUSTICE – Tough call over the 4, but a “YES” horse with early pace and top PAR+ numbers.
Suggested Wager
$1 Pick 4: 2,8 / 2,6,7,8 / 1,2 / 7,9,10
Race 3
1 1/16 Miles Turf – Closers – Rail and 8+ Best
6 – MISS COMPLICATED – “YES” horse and the biggest class dropper in the field. The Grade III placement says connections think highly of her.
7 – CINQUANTE CINQ – Well-bred first-time starter with strong workouts and solid turf pedigree.
2 – HOW ABOUT ABBY – Another “YES” horse dropping in both class and circuit.
8 – GOOD CONDUCT – “YES” horse making a favorable class and track drop.
Race 4
1 Mile 70 Yards – Early Speed – Mostly Fair (Posts 1–7)
1 – SHARED VISION – Finally healthy and making two consecutive starts for the first time as a 4-year-old. Biggest class drop in the field.
2 – WATCHER – TLRSP# +5. Third start off the layoff should be solid, although there is some regression concern after a career-best speed figure.
6 – TESOURO DE PIRATA – Moves forward with the top C ZONE and strong PAR+ numbers.
7 – MISS SUSAN B – Ultra-consistent runner. A true “Tom horse” that continues to fire.
Race 5
1 Mile Turf – Closers with Strong Inside-Out Bias
7 – HIGH GRACE – Biggest class and Churchill Downs track dropper. First try on turf, but the all-weather effort suggests she fits.
9 – FIGURINE – “YES” horse dropping in class in her third start back, although the last race raises some concerns.
10 – OONDIRI – Another “YES” horse whose form suggests either a big improvement or another disappointing effort in her second start back.
6 – VOLUNTOLD – Simulation favorite with the best PAR+ figures by a wide margin and much stronger early pace and fractions last time.
Suggested Wager
$1 Pick 4: 6,7,9,10 / 3,7,11 / 3,6 / 4,5
Race 6
5 Furlongs – Early Speed – 5 of 11 Wire-to-Wire Winners – Strong Outside Bias
3 – SOXIT TOEM – Following the Smart Sheets approach with first-time starters. Rated highest among the newcomers.
7 – LIL GITANA – Well-meant first-time starter that fits the race profile.
11 – BIGTIMEJUSTICE – Finished behind the 5 in her debut but attracted more betting support and returns with a bullet workout.
5 – FOREVER RELEASE – Third-start bounce-back candidate after narrowly missing last time. Likely to take plenty of betting action.
Suggested Wager
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 3,5,7,11
Race 7
1 1/16 Miles Turf – Closers – Rail and 8+ Best
3 – SPEIGHT KNIGHT – If he runs back to his projected second-race potential, he could win this one with authority.
6 – SEEN YOU LATER – Projected leader, a “YES” horse and the biggest class dropper in the field with a +6 Total Pace advantage.
2 – MY LUNAR CHARM – Expected to be closing late. Two of her three best races have come on the turf and she owns a standout C ZONE.
7 – STARSPANGLEDIMAGE – Longshot “YES” horse whose average race and upside are slightly better than the rest of this field.
Suggested Wager
$5 Exacta Key Box: 3 / 2,4,6,7
Race 8
1 1/16 Miles Turf – Closers – Rail and 8+ Best
5 – SHUGGY – “YES” horse and a must-use. Strong third-race bounce-back candidate.
4 – REDACTOR – Brad Cox first-time starter with an impressive work pattern.
6 – DEERFIELD – Highest second-race parability figure in the field.
1 – LAST MOMENT – Second-highest second-race parability figure and eligible to improve.
Suggested Wager
$5 Exacta Key Box: 5 / 1,2,4,6
Race 9
330 Yards
1 – KISSIN CARTER
4 – HH JESS BEING KRAZY
11 – BEACH TRAIN
6 – TACO GIRL
