Late night, early morning degeneracy for horseplayers as Tom and Rich make picks and share their analysis for Flemington Racecourse in Australia – Racing Victoria style – sounds so aristocratic.
Flemington Racecourse (Free Past Performances)
Race 6: Jockey Acknowledgement Plate
Race 7: Honouring Our Jockeys Plate
Race 8: Standish Handicap
Race 9: Off The Track Trophy
Race 10: Jockey Assistance Program Plate
Flemington Horse Racing Picks and Comments
22 to 1 Tom’s Tips
9 – Fire of Etna – Draw 3
Won last time out after a 10-month layoff. She had work to do from her 9th position on the turn home. She’s run this distance once before and ran second. She is lightly raced with four starts and two wins, but her trainers are hot in the last 50 starters, with 40% winning and 64% with in-the-money finishes: class rise and good fitness.
5 – Dane on Tour – Draw 5
She won last time at Caulfield and ran on the front end, which is different from her normal past running style. The steward questioned the rider after the race, and she stated that she was caught wide early in the race and had the horse on the lead with little effort. The tempo suited the frontrunners, and she just settled with a 1/2L lead for most of the race. They opened up a bit in the final stages with no one catching her. She will win or place in this race if she runs anything like that again.
8 – Rivaport – Draw 4
She did not have the best of runs in her past two races but was wide last time and finished better than the start. First start after the layoff. She ran better in her second start before with three starts, one win, and one placing. You will see improvement today with the addition of blinkers.
8 – Punch Lane – Draw 12
He Won last time, sitting second most of the race and then charging up for the win at 1400m. He’s lightly raced with only five starts, but three of them have been wins. He moves up in class and has won second up before. As in the last race, the trainers are hot in the last 50 starters, with 40% winning and 64% with in-the-money finishes. In form and I am going with the hot trainer. The draw doesn’t
6 – Helix – Draw 10
After two average efforts, he ran a good second at this track at the BM70 level while staking the pace. He did show a little better in the race before with a big run late. He does well at this distance with five starts one win and three placings. In the money runner for me.
5 – Green Belt – Draw 3
A very lightly raced 5yo with three starts, two wins, and one placing. It was a good second last out at Eagle Farm in a listed race. He traveled in the back of the field and then moved up on the turn to do enough for a minor placing—the horse, which has been off for 637 days, so the big unknown. They are taking blinkers off.
5 – Crosshaven – Draw 4
It was not the best of races, last running ninth in a listed race at Flemington. But he raced without cover throughout the race. Maybe not generally suited for this horse who wants cover. The distance suits with five starts and two wins and is good over this course at various distances. We should see a better run here.
2 – Sghirripa – Draw 1
Won last time out in a listed race at 1100m at Caulfield. He moved from fourth on the turn to make up ground and went away at the end. He’s run at this distance before and won but has no starts at the group racing level. He’s run well over with 13 starts, six wins, and five placings. Good spot to get a placing at the group level.
6 – Snapper – Draw 2
He is not in the best form lately but is racing at the Group 2 level at 1200m. He is better at this distance with 19 starts, five wins, and three placings. Both of these races were a Flemington. He had one win at this track in this race last year. He will pop up for a better effort here with some class relief.
3 – Miracle Spin – Draw 7
A winner at Randwick last out at the BM78 level. He came from far back and ran away with the win. It was a nice improvement over the earlier race, but it did improve position in that race. He’s 1 for 1 at this distance and likes this going, so I will put him on top.
7 – Tonneofgrit – Draw 4
Big run last out, but more is needed to run fifth in a class 3 race. He didn’t have the best starts, which didn’t help in the race. A better effort in the race before but only ran fourth. Is he coming to form? I think he is worth backing.
9 – Piaggio – Draw 6
Toss last race, he bucked after the start and was never in the race. He ran much better in the previous two races, with a win and a second at 1600m and 1400m. He should have enough for a placing if he doesn’t misbehave again.
1 – Jungle Jim – Draw 9
After two races of nothing special, he ran a good second last out and was forwardly placed in the race as normal. He could take the lead and run a top race on the front end if he runs back to that race.
4 – Forbidden City – Draw 13
She’s been running against the better company in past races vs. females, with fifth, fifth, third, and second runs in the past four races. The run for second was at the BM 78 level, then was moved to group races and the higher BM84 level. She runs against males here but returns to a level she should do well. The starting post isn’t great, but she did ok on the outside before.
6 – Jenny Jerome – Draw 14
This will be her second start after a good run last out, running fourth at the BM70 level. She used barrier trials for prepping for her last race. She has won in a long time but is one of those types who wins and does nothing. I think she is going to do better here, but the starting post doesn’t help her at all.
Race 6: Jockey Acknowledgement Plate – 11:08 pm Eastern
8 – RIVAPORT – might not look like it on paper, but much faster race in 1st up, 2nd up 3-1-1-0
9 – FIRE OF ETNA – always well bet, ran about 2 seconds faster in 1st up, won only 2nd up outing
6 – HARMONIOSU SENORA – is capable of crazy late race moves
5 – DANE ON TOUR – changed running styles in last, w2w, but can close too
Race 7: Honouring Our Jockeys Plate – 11:43 pm Eastern
9 – BULLET WING – take a flyer on a horse that is 7/3-1-1 at the distance, even race in 1st up
6 – HELIX – real nice effort at Flemington in last – likes to finish 2nd
5 – GREEN BELT – likely favorite, lightly races 5 YO tells me he has some health issues
2 – TOOGOODFORTOORAK – off for a long time, won last 1st up, will be upfront and when he runs well, he tends to win, especially on a good surface 12/4-0-1
Race 8: Standish Handicap – 12:28 am Eastern
2 – SGHIRRIPA – don’t want to go with the favorite, too many questions for the others – little extra distance helps
3 – TREASURED STAR – ahh, my favorite kind to bet ALL or NOTHING on good 9/4-0-0
7 – POLAND – a little bit of a pace play – there isn’t much ES in here, could steal an EZ lead and the cutback in distance might be to his advantage
4 – CURRAN – another closer that might find the extra distance helpful
Race 9: Off The Track Trophy – 1:13 am Eastern
5 – STRAWBERRY ROCK – 1st up 5/3-0-0 – just 1 win in 13 other races – today or nothing
3 – MIRACLE SPIN – one for one at the distance in his last, could improve in classic third start after a layoff
8 – CAPTAIN BRITAIN – likes good footing, 7/3-1-0 – ran a lot faster in his last, about 25 lengths, I realize it was on good versus heavy, but I don’t think the surface change alone can count for 25 Ls
9 – PIAGGIO – not really sure what to do with this one, could easily win, but bucked at the start of his last and didn’t want to run. Stewards checked, healthy and his normal race would make him top choice.
Race 10: Jockey Assistance Program Plate – 1:48 am Eastern
5 – TURF DECISION – getting extra distance in 2nd up helps, especially since he is 5/3-0-0 at 6f
2 – IT IS ME – two race win streak, usually well bet, win and move up
1 – JUNGLE JIM – maybe a little regression in last, but track caller noted the horse was fitter
3 – ZOIST –1st up where he is 5/2-0-2, put this one on your watchlist for his 3rd up – 3 for 3 in the winners’ enclosure.