The heat has shortened Thursday’s Kentucky Downs program to seven races, but there is still plenty to handicap on one of the most unique turf courses in American racing.
The abbreviated card still offers the things that make Kentucky Downs such an interesting betting puzzle: long-distance turf races, large fields, unfamiliar course dynamics, first-time starters, improving young horses and runners shipping in from several different circuits.
Tom attacks the card through traditional form, trips, workouts, breeding, trainer intent and Kentucky Downs experience, while Rich’s Ranks bring in Kentucky Downs-specific race profiles, Smart Sheets, SIM Speed, Total Pace, C-ZONE, PAR, second-race parability, class and improvement potential.
Here’s how Tom and Rich see all seven races.
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Race 1: 1½ Miles – Closers, Outside In
Tom’s Tips
1 – Gettleman – a winner twice over the fences but a non-winner on the flat track. The going at this track should suit this horse, and he has run some decent races on the turf and dirt. Top jockey helps too.
10 – Diamond Eyed Jack – ran some races and then was gelded and ran from the back to finish fourth last time out. He just needs to settle and make one run to get in the money, as he has before.
4 – Oliveti – he has run ok on the turf twice and had an awful race on the slop. He showed some early foot last time but did not finish. Speed has been holding up in many of the races, so on the lead and try and catch me?
If the horse draws in: 13 – It’s Final
Rich’s Ranks
6 – LET’S BE FRANK – has the best average race and will be closing
2 – PAYTON’S HAMMER – out on the front with +13 Total Pace
8 – LAHAINALUNA – has the most back class and occasional major late race pop
1 – GETTLEMAN – won two jumpers in a row – and longest flat trip was his best
Race 2: 1 Mile – Stalkers, Rail Bonus, the Rest Mostly Fair
Tom’s Tips
10 – Asher Dasher – did not get the best of starts and ran on to run fifth at Ellis last time. A better-than-average workout coming into this race indicates to me he is ready for a big effort today.
6 – Greatest Nate – first-time starter whose last workout was a bullet from the starting gate. Trainer has a positive ROI with maidens lately at prices. The turf breeding on this horse is an unknown.
2 – Romo – adds blinkers today after a first race that was forgettable. Slow from the starting gate and ran around the track on the sloppy going. Switches to the turf and has breeding showing he should like the turf. Gets Jose Ortiz too.
Rich’s Ranks
1 – SUN GATE – 2nd race Parability – get the rail
6 – GREATEST NATE – 1st timer with a back bullet – missed out on one of those yesterday
8 – BANDOLIM – highest rated 1st timer with strong breeding
9 – DITLIHI – 3rd race bounce back potential
Race 3: 6½ Furlongs – Stalkers, 40% W2W – Mostly Fair but a Little Tougher at the Rail
Tom’s Tips
8 – Rocket Rania – won last time out by a neck at Ellis despite a slow start. He looks on paper to be versatile, with the other two wins closer to the pace. Adding another furlong should not be an issue. He has won on both firm and softer going too.
1 – Civetta – showed some speed before not finishing the race last time out in a minor stakes race at Aqueduct. Showed no interest in running on the all-weather. An inside post and breaks on top should give him a good chance. Godolphin owner.
5 – Ready To Jam – showed early pace at Saratoga going one mile last time, ran a bit wide but finished fourth with a decent effort. He ran second at this track in a similar race last year. He just needs to finish at the end.
Rich’s Ranks
6 – TURINO – will be closing in 2nd up – has a 2nd at KD in lone trip
2 – SHE’S A TEMPEST – best chance to go W2W where 40% do – +5 EP and Top TOTAL PACE
5 – READY TO JAM – most upside – distance 4/1-3-0 and a 2nd in 1 at KD
8 – ROCKET RANIA – popped in last – 1st time going 3 in row
Race 4: 1 Mile – Stalkers, Rail Bonus, the Rest Mostly Fair
Tom’s Tips
7 – Warfork – interesting race comment was “reserved”. Was this a learning race for his next start? I think so, and Casse-trained maidens do well at this track.
6 – Djokovic – poor start in first race but finished fifth in longer race at Saratoga. He may show some early footing today and will benefit from the first start.
10 – Pride Rock – another Casse-trained horse who ran much in his second start. This one will get bet with Jose Ortiz and should continue to improve.
If the horse draws into the race: 13 – Yalta
Rich’s Ranks
6 – DJOKOVIC – highest 2nd Race Parability
4 – CIRCADIAN – 2nd best 2nd Race Parability – +6 EP and +5 Total Pace
9 – ARRIVAL TIME – lone 1st timer vs all noes and a trio of 2nd Race Parabilities
11 – THIS TIME FOR SURE – the last of the 2nd Race Parabilities
Race 5: 1½ Miles – Closers, Outside In
Tom’s Tips
4 – Rose Room – her first start was just that, not great. She closed strongly last year at Kentucky Downs in a stakes race to finish fourth by a neck after winning her maiden at Delaware Park. I think she is ready for a big effort today.
10 – Pretty Tapit – went off the favorite last time at Saratoga and ran too wide to have any chance. It took more than a few races to finally win but did so with a strong effort. Second up at this level will result in a better effort today.
1 – Classic Glide – this horse has run well enough on turf to be my in-the-money choice. She has tried both turf and dirt, with success on both surfaces. She ran well last time at Ellis on soft going. I do not see her winning, but getting up in time is my way to play her.
Rich’s Ranks
4 – ROSE ROOM – really popped in only other 2nd – will be coming at the end – longer helps
1 – CLASSIC GLIDE – TLRSP#+5 – some decent works since – a 3rd in lone KD run – 1st up?
10 – PRETTY TAPIT – most upside in the race – and it was at 1½ miles
5 – ALLURING BEAUTY – best combo EP/LP and has done well enough in 1st ups
Race 6: 1 Mile – Stalkers, Rail Bonus, the Rest Mostly Fair
Tom’s Tips
6 – One Sweet Girl – she has won three times this year, and her last effort was in a stakes race, where she showed some early pace but did nothing at the finish. Maybe she was too close to the pace? On paper, there appear to be a few front runners in this race, and all she needs to do is have that closing kick.
8 – Little Jamie – she missed by a neck in a handicap race at Gulfstream last time out. She had the lead but didn’t get the job done. She has tried higher levels with some success, and this season she is two for two, running second and third.
1 – Resplendence – is the speed in this race; she stands out as one who will still be running at the end. After winning her maiden, the trainer put her in stakes company races, winning one of them. She ran out of gas last time out, so maybe a little class relief is what she needs.
Rich’s Ranks
7 – TIRUPATI – super consistent with the most upside and late pace
6 – ONE SWEET GIRL – pretty much all or nothing 10/4-0-1 – all 4 in 8 on grass – 3rd up
8 – LITTLE JAMIE – only class dropper – TLRSP#+6 and only 2nd time in a year 2 starts in a row
1 – RESPLENDENCE – could be lone E with standout C-ZONE and rail bonus
Race 7: 1½ Miles – Closers, Outside In
Tom’s Tips
4 – Interceptor – had issues in a stakes race last time and now returns to a level where he had won before. He has only raced once on the turf, and it was an even effort at Aqueduct. Let’s give him a shot with Maker/Ortiz.
3 – Harrow – an 8yo who continues to run decent races and run in the money. He won at this track and should run better than last time.
11 – Demolition Duke – appears to have continued to improve, with his last three starts running second on the pace last time out. He has been better at running in the money than winning.
Rich’s Ranks
4 – INTERCEPTOR – +8 SIM SP# and +19 Top TOTAL PACE – most upside
9 – MAYOR OF MIDNIGHT – super consistent – closing on the outside and aside from a G3 – runs well off the bench
3 – HARROW – 1 for 1 at KD – first up runs well enough to hit the board
11 – DEMOLITION DUKE – 2nd at KD and could be a lone E type
$5 Exacta Key Box: 4/3,7,9,11
Kentucky Downs: Heat-Shortened Thursday Card
Seven races instead of the originally scheduled program, but Kentucky Downs still gives handicappers a completely different puzzle than the typical American turf card.
The 1½-mile races particularly favor closers and outside runners in Rich’s Kentucky Downs profile, while the mile races have been more favorable to stalkers with an advantage toward the rail. At 6½ furlongs, stalkers have performed well while approximately 40% of the winners have gone wire-to-wire.
There are also several places where Tom and Rich land on the same horses.
Greatest Nate makes both lists in Race 2. Ready To Jam and Rocket Rania overlap in Race 3. Both put Djokovic prominently in Race 4, and their strongest agreement may come in Race 5, where Rose Room is the top selection for both Tom and Rich.
They also agree on One Sweet Girl, Little Jamie and Resplendence in Race 6 before both make Interceptor their top choice in the finale.
Less racing because of the heat doesn’t necessarily mean fewer opportunities. With seven turf races at Kentucky Downs, we’re still looking for the horses whose running styles, form and numbers fit one of the most unusual courses in American racing.
