Parx Full Card Tips, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
$100 Challenge – Suggested Wagers for Parx on a $100 Budget
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Thistledown
Parx Picks and Comments
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
1 – Emperor’s Cause – He has won two races in a row and is going for a hat trick, the rail post is winning at a 20% clip, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 25% of the races of the races in the first race after claiming a horse and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
6 – Center Mid Maddie – He finished 4th vs similar in his last race as the favorite but has a trainer who wins 21% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and switches jockey Paco Lopez who in the last 7 days has this record (9 7-1-0).
4 – True Dakotan – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
8 – Scoop Dawg – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and has a trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-1-1).
Bet: $1.00 DD: 1,6/1,5,6,8
Race 2
1 – Storied Fella – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, the rail post is winning at a 21% clip, has a high % winning trainer and high % winning Jockey.
6 – Gimmebackmybullets – He won his last race at PARX Racing and his early foot helps his chances.
5 – Ouch Ouch Ouch – He drops in class today, has a high % winning trainer, switches to a high % winning jockey and can improve while returning to a dirt.
Longshot:
8 – Jovial – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
2 – Strawberry Cone
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 –2nd race #1,5,6,8 – 3rd race #6 – 4th race #1,2,4,7 – 5th race # 1,5
Race 3
6 – Marion Grace – She has won two out of her last three races, switches to a high % winning trainer and has the highest last race speed rating.
3 – Cup of Life – She ran 7th in her last race after experiencing trouble in the race, has a high % winning trainer and jockey and blinkers added today.
5 – Tudor Peak – She drops in class today and should improve while returning to a sprint.
Longshot:
1 – Boss Like Beth – She ran 2nd in her last race, the rail post is winning at a 20% clip and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
2 – Iyiyi
4 – Risen Change
Bet: $.50 Trifecta: 3,6/3,5,6/1,2,3,5,6
Race 4
7 – Shane’s Jewel – He drops in class today, has a high % winning trainer who wins 28% of the races of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, has a high % Jockey and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
1 – Ava K’s Boy – He won his last race at PARX Racing, has a high % winning trainer and jockey and this combo in the last 14 days has won three out of five races.
2 – Doctor Doom – He has a high % winning trainer and a good 4F workout on Jun-13.
Longshot:
4 – Crypt – He has finished in the money in two out of the last three races, winning one, switches to a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the races of the races in the first race after claiming a horse.
Alternate:
3 – Rejected Again
5 – Lazaretto
Bet: – $.50 Pick 4 – 4th race #1,2,4,7 – 5th race # 1,5- 6th race #1,5,6,7 – 7th #10
Race 5
5 – Louella Street – She won her last race at PARX Racing, has a high % winning jockey and the cuts back in distance which should help.
1 – Distorted View – She finished 2nd in her last race and has a high % winning trainer and her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
3 – Titanic Rose – She drops in class today and has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
7 – Milwaukee Bay – She has finished in the money in her last four races, winning one and finishing 2nd in her last race as the favorite but has a trainer who wins 22% of the races of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again.
Alternate:
2 – My Masterpiece
4 – Misquillo
Bet: $1.00 Exacta Box: 1,3,5
Race 6
5 – Mantaketheblesings – He ran 2nd vs similar in his only start, and the speed rating he earned labels him a threat.
1 – Myheartwillgoon – He is a first-time starter whose Dam has 1 winner from 1 starter, the breeding suits today’s sprint distance and he has a good 4f workout on June 06.
7 – His Rights – He is a first-time starter whose Sire wins 18% with first time starters, his Dam has 1 winner from 2 starters, and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Cigale – He is a first-time starter whose Dam has 2 winners from 2 starters and 1 stakes winner and a high % winning jockey in the last 7 days has this record (9 3-3-0).
Alternate:
2 – Runlikecarl
3 – Aves Makin’ Waves
Bet: None
Race 7
10 – What’s to Blame – He has won two out of his last three races and has a high % winning trainer who wins 34% of the races in the first race after claiming a horse and has a high % winning jockey.
6 – Plamen – He drops in class today, likes the track finishing in the money in 66% of the starts, winning 17% of the races and likes the distance finishing in the money in 66% of the starts, winning 23% of the races.
1 – Somebody – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, the rail post is winning at 19% clip and has a trainer who wins 20% of the races in the second race after claiming a horse.
Longshot:
8 – Honor the Fleet – She drops in class today, should improve at the shorter distance, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
2 – Relishment
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 – 7th race # 1,6,10 – 8th race # 2,5 – 9th race # 1,6,8,9 – 10th # 6,8,9
Bet: $12.00 Win: #10
Race 8
2 – Mr. Roundtree – He has finished in the money in his last nine races, winning the last race and has a high % winning Jockey.
5 – Iconic Legacy – He has finished in the money in his last seven races, winning three of the races and has a high % winning trainer who wins 18% of the races in dirt starts.
6 – He Hate Me – He won his last race at PARX Racing, drops in class off the win, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
1 – Quick Return – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and the rail post is winning at a 20% clip.
Alternate:
3 – Shanghai Superfly
4 – Big Brown Shoes
Bet: None
Race 9
9 – Mia Tosca – She has finished in the money in her last three races, winning one of the races and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
8 – Lady Zeta – She ran 2nd in her last race, has a high % winning trainer and jockey and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
6 – Shero – She won her last race, has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
1 – Kisses for Emily – She won her last race, and the rail post is winning at a 20% clip.
Bet: None
Race 10
8 – Vanilla Bean – She ran 2nd in her last race, she has the highest last race speed rating, and her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
6 – Lady Thor – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and has a high % winning trainer who in last 14 days has finished in the money in 50% of the winning 25% of the starts.
9 – Save Your Tears – She ran 2nd in her last race, switches to a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Keep It Sweet – He finished 3rd in her last race and the longer distance should help.
Alternate:
10 – Whatsagizmo
11 – Charlize Chub
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed – 44% w2w – PP: Inside Out Bias
1 – EMPEROR’S CAUSE – TLRPS#, winner two in a row, could benefit from cutback
6 – CENTER MID MADDIE – might not look like it, but could have EP edge -going long for the first time – PACO
4 – TRUE DAKOTAN – distance 12/0-4-5, usually shows strong LP
8 – SCOOP DAWG – one of the favorites according to SIM – been claimed a lot – trainers must see something
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,6/1,4,6/1,4,5,6,8
Race 2: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 31% w2w – PP: Strong Inside Out Bias
8 – JOVIAL – not a fan of outside draw or giving up a 4 lengths lead last out, but better times at 7f v 6f at this level
1 – STORIED FELLA – Ness/Silvera, TLRSP# with better #s ATB and likely better in 2nd up
5 – OUCH OUCH OUCH – Kendrick’s lone mount – dropping in class, turf to dirt – 20% for tr Felix Flores-Coba
2 – STRAWBERRY CONE – tough call over the 6, but pounded him when they met, much better pace#s ATB in last
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 1,2,5,8/3/1,2,3,5,7/5,8
Race 3: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 34% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bias, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Close to Fair
3 – CUP OF LIFE – drops in class after running similar fractions at 6 1/2f v 6f, won by 6 ¾ at this level
6 – MARION GRACE – 3rd after a layoff, being on the lead is the key, 2 wins were w2w – should compete for lead here, but plenty of speed on the inside could hurt
1 – BOSS LIKE BETH – can’t argue with Parx record 9/2-3-2 – hot rail
5 – TUDOR PEAK – drops in class – last race was better than it looked with similar times at 1m70y, cut back in distance was a winning strategy before
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,3,6/3,6/1,2,3,5,6
Race 4: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 37% w2w – PP: Fairish 1-7, 8+ Bonus
1 – AVA K’S BOY – staying in the claiming ranks after a W, tr Michael Catalano Jr hits at 32% vs 21% overall – big alpha
3 – REJECTED AGAIN – TLRSP# in robust, w2w effort in last, peak # is concern, 2 of the last 3 peak #s were followed by regression, the other with big improvement – hoping for that one
7 – SHANE’S JEWEL – Ness/Silvera trying to sell this one, off since October, decent works, most upside by far, lowest level in last 10
2 – DOCTOR DOOM – down in class, brilliant LP in last, Distance 3/1-1-1 and two solid works between races
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 1,2,3,5,7/5,8/1,4,5,6/2
Race 5: 7 1/2 Furlongs Turf – Bias: 11 Races – Tactical Speed – 45% w2w – PP: None from Rail, 1 from 2/3, 4-7 Best, 8+ a little under Par
5 – LOUELLA STREET – top Turf Pedigree, went w2w at this distance/surface last out, resume says 2nd up should be close to first up
8 – XENATOWN – good shot to be on lead, tie top C-Zone, off record 3/0-2-0 hints horse could have success in first on turf
1 – DISTORTED VIEW – next best turf Pedigree, turf record 5/0-1-2, tr Louis Linder Jr, no wins in 71 turf races in 2023? – plus rail is ohfer
7 – MILWAUKEE BAY – 3rd start after a layoff, weight break with Sofia, but tr Louis Linder, Jr 0-40 Dirt to Turf – can’t back that for the win, maybe ITM
Race 6: 4 ½ Furlongs – Bias: 4 Races – 3 w2w – PP: All Winners 4-7
1 – MYHEARTWILLGOON – last work was probably the best of all the first timers
6 – CIGALE – second best works IMO and a 5 pound weight break, which could help keep speed
5 – MANTAKETHEBLESINGS – missed by a neck despite a slow start in debut – turns around in 9 days, a bit concerned that might be tough on 2 yo legs
4 – PRALINEPOPSBOTTLES – Rudy Rodriguez brings in a NYRA horse with decent Belmont works
Race 7: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed – 29% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Penalty
2 – RELISHMENT – PACO – faster fractions and a dominant LP number last out – SIM says could be pacesetter with decent C-Zone – lone P
10 – WHAT’S TO BLAME – first off the claim for Ness – 34% v 22% overall, faded late at this level last out after rise in class, will need to be better late today – outside post could hurt
5 – ANGELUS WARRIOR – lowest level in last 4, a lot of late gains in last, Parx 6/1-3-0 and Distance 6/2-2-0
1 – SOMEBODY – rail post bonus, consistent performer, 6/2-1-2 much better fractions last out
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 2,10/ALL/3,8,9/9,11
Race 8: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 34% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bias, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Close to Fair
This is an ALL race – any can win
6 – HE HATE ME – Pennington/Ness, some really good workouts getting prepped between starts
1 – QUICK RETURN – why is Trevor McCarthy here to ride just this horse? A closer that’s adding distance, right up his alley
2 – MR. ROUNDTREE – TLRSP# and at times has brilliant LP – tends not to win Back to Back, but strings good performances together
4 – BIG BROWN SHOES – down in class after being better ATB, Top SIM EP/C-Zone score
Race 9: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 34% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bias, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Close to Fair
8 – LADY ZETA – Ness/Silvera, those fractions were pretty fast last out and first for Ness off the claim – 28% second off the claim for Ness and the extra ½ furlong here could help
9 – MIA TOSCA – +5 EP/LP edge as SIM FAV and top overlay and tie strongest C-Zone, not sure if the extra ½ furlong helps
3 – OUT DANCING – competitive at this level versus top 2 last out – this is the right distance 6/3-0-1, just 1 win in 10 at any other length – upgrade to Pennington might help
6 – SHERO – tough call over the 1 – but consistently runs better races
Race 10: 1 Mile Turf – Bias: No Races
9 – SAVE YOUR TEARS – Kentucky track dropper, tr James Noble 36% winner with shippers
11 – CHARLIZE CHUB – PACO – got to ride him while he is hot – could be better in 2nd off the bench and second try on turf
8 – VANILLA BEAN – TLRSP# and better ATB in last, resume says 3rd after the layoff could be best of the 3
6 – LADY THOR – Top Turf pedigree – closed in last, two best races on grass, Chris P angle at Monmouth
